Have the government factored in breaking ranks now?

[sickofPPEtalk]

Just curious really - I'm still driving to work daily and there's an increase in people for sure, people on beaches more and in parks, meeting up etc. There's posts on here saying they've made own risk assessments and have started using parks, hugging people, people round for dinner etc, shops opening.

Will the behavioural scientists etc have factored in that this would be the point that people would break ranks or is it happening sooner? Will it derail the plans in getting the cases right down for test, track and trace to work?

I'm not really bothered what others are getting up to but I guess if it puts us back to square 1 in a few weeks and it wasn't anticipated within The Grand Plan, that would be really annoying!!

It's a novel strategy - protect the NHS by letting people die at home - but one that seems to have worked.

^ this.

It’s not that we have spare capacity compared to Italy and Spain so we can relax the lockdown - it’s that while many people have been admitted to hospital, many others have either been admitted very late or not at all .

Why isn’t this being more highlighted in the media?

A lot of people took the 'save lives, protect the NHS' slogan at face value and with deaths seeming to drop (and in some areas there have been relatively few anyway) and there being 40,000 empty acute hospital beds with NHS staff tripping over each other with not much to do (obviously depends what area of the NHS you work in and which area of the country).

Then a lot of people don't see or understand the bigger picture and think they can start to relax a bit since 'it's worked'.

And it's human nature full stop that people often start something with enthusiasm and fully on board then start to let things slip after a few weeks. Diets, exercise regimes, dry Jan, spending budgets etc.

Especially if there is no fixed end date in sight. Lots of people would be more compliant if given a firm structure so would adhere more if they knew it was only 6 weeks or whatever. But when it's 3 weeks now then another, could be more after, and no plan outlined. People start to think fuck it, i'm not living like this for months or a year, i'll take my chances.

It's a novel strategy - protect the NHS by letting people die at home - but one that seems to have worked

^^ Yes - to this. It's very worrying that people don't realise this and it's not being reported in the media.

I think too many people are going to go back to behaving as before and assume it was all a storm in a teacup because we haven't got footage of people queued up, dying in hospital corridors, and because they don't personally know anyone who has died or been told to suffer through serious symptoms at home.

I think fortyfifty and a pp who mentioned surreal are correct. I don't know anyone who has been hospitalised or died. I know of one elderly person I have never met (relative of a friend of a friend type thing) who was elderly and unwell already.

I am in a county with fairly few deaths but with the good weather, beaches and second homes, it wouldn't take long for our county's figures to change.

If I wasn't on Mumsnet and Twitter, I wouldn't know about how people who are very ill with Covid-19 are being triaged by 111 and 999 and kept away from hospital treatment for too long.

Yes of course they will have factored it in. In fact the initial plans were made based on 50% compliance, and a far higher number of people in the UK complied than they expected. Many businesses closed which didn’t have to under the guidelines.
To be honest a slow trickle of people starting to go out more may not be a bad thing for them.

You only have to look at the number of people on here who think going to the park to sit on a bench eating a packet of crisps and walk a dog off the lead is ok

Yeah... also the people who think it’s ok to do box jumps on benches

The weather will play a pivotal role in this. If it gets hotter, it will become harder to keep people inside, especially since most UK homes don't have AC. There is a problem because with Boris Johnson absent as a consequence of his recovery, there isn't a consistent figure head to articulate the exit strategy. Eventually, increasing numbers of people will simply ignore the injunction to stay at home. Exacerbated if there is a heatwave. The government needs to get on top of this by articulating a clear message about exit from lockdown. If they do not, they will be perceived as having lost control of the situation and the narrative as more people ignore instructions to remain at home.

It's a novel strategy - protect the NHS by letting people die at home - but one that seems to have worked

In what sense has it worked? The Times reported yesterday that 60,000 people may die as a consequence of cancelled cancer treatments and missed cancer diagnoses. There is a gargantuan logjam because the NHS has been effectively 'closed' and the impact of that will result in an inability to obtain appointments and treatment for months. Those responsible for making these decisions will need to explain the higher than average death rate in a country whose cancer survival rates are some of the lowest in the developed world. Die at home to 'protect the NHS?' It is only in the UK that the relationship between healthcare system and patients is reversed and chanted as an admirable slogan. It's quite astonishing.

I'd say it has worked by fooling people into thinking the NHS can cope with the pandemic. The reason for lockdown - we were told - was to flatten the curve so the health service doesn't become overwhelmed. The general public think that has been successful.

As theres no cure or vaccine I also think a lot of people are feeling it's pointless and they'd rather take their chances (me included). I'm obeying because I'm law abiding not because I think it's useful anymore.

This.

Empty A&E departments - but if you point this out you’re called a Tory bot

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/23/accident-and-emergency-department-coronavirus-hospital-serious-conditions

It’s become the norm as has the 100’s of deaths each day
People are becoming less scared, their resolves are lessening and taking more risks
The government are losing control and they aren’t addressing it so people’s behaviour is changing

There seem to be slightly more people out walking and there is more chatting to people across the street or have met when out but everyone seems to be keeping 2m apart which is in the long run what needs to happen. I think there can be a lot of peer pressure to conform in smaller places which maybe why I'm not seeing obvious rule breaking.

I think part of the issue is the risk seems slightly suureal until you know, or know of, someone who has actually contracted the virus.

@inmylifeIlovedthemall

Absolutely agree with you on this.

I'm wondering whether government actually want us to break ranks now?

They seem to have a style of dealing with this - which is either being lead by the people, or making us think we're leading them (so as to accept whatever we're told to do next).

It's either government is entirely incompetent (plausible), inept without Boris (BJ won't let them do anything until he's back) or they are actually wanting everyone to break lockdown now.

It's puzzling. If we do all break out now - there's still no testing in place. We'll just have another surge of infections again, surely - and the lockdown will be brought back in at an even huger cost to the nation.

It really feels as if there is no plan ...

As Figgygal says further up - it does feel as though government are losing control. I keep saying this - but no one else seems worried ...

We need a fully present PM, don't we, to reconnect with the population?

I'm not sure about no plan but it's pretty hard to plan in any country right now

Of course they factored it in.

They made the correct call to not lockdown until they did. Keeping people on lockdown is not natural and people were going to quickly think fuck this when we know this virus isn’t going to disappear so really what is the point in living not seeing the people we love.

I am sticking to the government guidelines and I will continue to do so but I do think lockdown is pointless, the virus is here to stay for now and a vaccine is ages off. I am healthy, my family is healthy, we always have practiced good hygiene so I don’t see why We can’t take our chance and go out we so wish. I am more than capable of using my common sense

I am not sure but I don't think we do need or want the virus to spread.

We are not aiming to achieve herd immunity other than through vaccines. Doing it the natural way within nhs capacity would take years and involve multiple lockdowns. It will continue to spread because it is out there, but if it starts to spread at a higher level...R over one I guess, they will lock down again.

If we don't get a vaccine or drug therapy, then I suppose they reassess the plan.