A read if you like covid plans and data

[sickofPPEtalk]

This was shared on another thread - I hope they don't mind me sharing but I found it a really informative read and seems like where government are getting guidance from regarding the 5 point threshold. It explains how school opening fits in and case numbers required to move to next phase etc. It's helped me get clarity of the plan even if government aren't sharing!

institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A%20Sustainable%20Exit%20Strategy%2C%20Tony%20Blair%20Institute%20for%20Global%20Change.pdf

Thanks I have found it interesting.

It still relies on that floored study with little evidence on the schools though and has the caveat that the adults spreading it as a challenge. So it sent my anxiety through the roof. It also missed having enough staff as one of the challenges.

Agree with them that the 20-30 would not be seen as fair.

It was interesting to look at what they thought the effects on the Ro value would be. Not much wiggle room.

Thank you, very interesting.

Warning; don't read if you can't tolerate nuance

@RigaBalsam

I don't think it aimed to discuss every minor hiccup. Schools will manage to staff themselves if needed. Even in medical workforces sickness rates have typically been less than 25% and then improved again. And lots of studies have shown young children are at low risk of spreading it

Agreed, lack of staff is NHS was expected to be a huge issue. But people have worked differently, reconfigured things and it's been largely fine. Not perfect but no one is expecting perfect.

And lots of studies have shown young children are at low risk of spreading it

But are still quite limited studies.

I agree. Earlier you said "that floored study" which is not really true.

I agree. Earlier you said "that floored study" which is not really true.

Sorry will swop for limited. Though it did make a lot of assumptions.

Schools will manage to staff themselves if needed. Even in medical workforces sickness rates have typically been less than 25%

Schools don't have that margin for staff and will struggle to open in those circumstances. Many other sectors will, too, so it is likely to be patchy opening.

And healthcare, prisons etc do have the staff margin? I think you operate in a less than ideal way and get on with it. Not ideal but nothing is.

Yes, the "less than ideal" way is partial closing if there isn't enough staff and the institution can't operate safely. That would be the case in all organisations, not just schools. It just looks different in prisons!

Interesting but I wish it differentiated by the vulnerable and the highly vulnerable.

Are the merely vulnerable expected to go back out to work and teach in schools?

Vulnerable groups in other sectors do risk assessed work. Eg working in less risky wards, op clinics, desk work. I think the same principles would apply in education.

I can’t see how that would work in education, frankly. Social distancing is simply not possible in schools. I can’t see how any ‘merely’ vulnerable, who have been told to be “especially stringent” in their social distancing, could possibly work in schools.