Updated Covid-19 Studies

[Mumlove5]

Hello,

I’ve compiled recent positive videos and articles on Covid-19. These are really hopeful and I am posting for those who would like to hear a different view. They do go against the mainstream scare-mongering media so beware
I do have family in CA and they are keeping me in the loop on what’s going on there.

Sorry, quite a few videos. Will take some time watching

Coronavirus Infections May Not Be Uncommon, Tests Suggest
www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/health/coronavirus-antibodies-california.html

-Bigger study now taking place from Stanford

M.L.B. Employees Become the Subjects of a Huge Coronavirus Study
www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/sports/baseball/major-league-baseball-coronavirus-study.html

• Virus has been in US longer than thought

Coronavirus Death in California Came Weeks Before First Known U.S. Death www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-first-united-states-death.html

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University conducting the study

Who Is John Ioannidis?

Ioannidis said about 60 million people die per year on Earth.

But COVID-19 may be the only disease that has a website meter counting every single fatality. And he believes that's fuelling the public's alarm.

“ I feel sure that we will look back on these days with shock at what our leaders have done in the name of disease control. Many reputations will suffer. Respect for the intelligence and moral courage of John Ioannidis will rise.”

Watch videos:
www.aier.org/article/who-is-john-ioannidis/

Swedish expert: why lockdowns are the wrong policy
unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

The end of exponential growth: The decline in the spread of coronavirus
A similar pattern – rapid increase in infections to a peak in the sixth week, and decline from the eighth week – is common everywhere, regardless of response policies

www.timesofisrael.com/the-end-of-exponential-growth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus/

Perspectives on the Pandemic Episode 2: In this explosive second edition of Perspectives on the Pandemic, Professor Knut Wittkowski, for twenty years head of The Rockefeller University's Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, says that social distancing and lockdown is the absolutely worst way to deal with an airborne respiratory virus.

DR. KATZ RESPONDS TO THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

www.heraldscotland.com/news/18377095.coronavirus-scotland-half-icu-beds-empty/

Why we can not rely on models alone...
issuesinsights.com/2020/04/18/after-repeated-failures-its-time-to-permanently-dump-epidemic-models/

The CDC’s model predicted that 1.4 million people would die from Ebola in Liberia and Sierra Leone five years ago. The final death toll was less than 8,000.

The US Public Health Service predicted that at least 450,000 Americans would be diagnosed with AIDS by the end of 1993. In fact, the number was 17,325.

In 2005, Neil Ferguson told the Guardian that up to 200 million people could die from bird flu. “Around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak,” he explained. “There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.” The final death toll from avian flu strain A/H5N1 was 440. (That’s 440 people, not 440 million.)

In 2002, the same Professor Ferguson predicted that mad cow disease could kill up to 50,000 people. It ended up killing less than 200.

New interview about results from the first antibody test... it brings the death rate down to 0.12 -0.2% of total population.

I only skim read the ones I could access without signing up - but there were so many faults in the logic that they’re not credible!

Lots of them talk about the ‘infection rate’ - which is only as good as the testing regime. Does no tests = no infection? Statistically yes, logically no.

Infection rate is only useful if you’re testing everyone ( or you’re comparing countries with similar testing regimes).

They are comparing these tests to others, ie Germany, Iceland, etc. It looks very promising! This virus is probably more widespread and less deadly than we think.

NYC is completing one now. We will wait to see what happens with the Major League Teams and staff.

The videos are also very informative.

It has to be the case that far more people have been/are infected than the testing has shown. For one thing, not everyone has been tested, so it's absolutely guaranteed that for every person in hospital/dead there are at least some other people who are at home either with manageable symptoms or no symptoms at all, who aren't being counted.

Also, the question I want answered is: if the virus started in Wuhan and the first cases there were the first cases in the whole world, how in God's name could it possibly have spread as widely and as quickly as it did??

The answer of course is that it may have started in Wuhan but it started far far earlier than thought, and it was spreading for a long time before anyone noticed it.

Agreed.

Well, I think these lockdowns are causing much more harm then good, putting us in a lose-lose situation.

The virus has been spreading like wildfire. The majority have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic... Then boom, you lock-up people in their homes, many living with older parents and grandparents, which keeps the virus in the home. This is partly why Lombardy got hit so hard amongst other reasons. I was thinking about all the university students coming home to live with their parents taking the virus with them.

Supposedly the virus has been circulating in the UK since mid-January. Suspecting it might have arrived right after Christmas because of all the traveling? I’m just thinking not fully sure of course.

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/uk-patient-zero-east-sussex-family-may-have-infected-coronavirus/

Surprise, surprise, it's been found that there were deaths from covid in the US weeks earlier than first thought: edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html

What is your point? Reversing the lockdown? Does the UK have enough testing and contact tracing in place for this to be possible without another peak?

@TheDailyCarbuncle

So if he passed on February 6th, that means he could have be exposed to the virus mid-January.

@Selmaselma

My point that this virus is way more widespread and less deadly than we thought.

“Experts say these studies could help improve projections and disease modeling, and give a more realistic sense of how deadly the virus really is.”

Antibody testing will help with reversing the lockdown.

I’m hoping the UK will begin these studies soon. Unfortunately, they seem to be biased towards imperial college though.

IMO that is not the case but antibody testing in the UK will show. There are couple of antibody testing studies in other countries already that didn't come to the same conclusion as you are suggesting.

Which countries didn’t?

I read that Iceland and Germany has come to a similar conclusion. Need to check Finland.

.

Re the latter part of your OP, quoting the models saying that X people would die in various epidemics, but in the end a much smaller number did: surely the predictions were that X people would die if the disease was allowed to spread unchecked. And in response to that, the authorities did something to check the spread of the disease, and so fewer people died.

Thank you for links🙏
I have been doing a bit of reflection too and googled some stuff I have added here.
The Wuhan flights in January to UK were not screened etc. On entry to UK, were only told to isolate if they felt unwell.
I am assuming among these would have been symptom free and mingled normally.
Students ( even more likely to be symptom free) had free movement around cities at this time too.
Google list of universities with highest amount of international students. All of these in hotspots.
My point too is it been here longer than we think.
Italy already saying now they had a month of higher than usual pneumonias before outbreak declared.
I wonder if the UK data reflects this.

Minty, I think so too.

I’m hoping the UK will begin testing for antibodies as fast as possible.

Indian study out today, 176 covid 19 patients (previously checked serum levels).

Same findings as the New Orleans, Indonesian and Philippines studies:

100% of critical patients less than 75 years old had Vitamin D insufficiency

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3593258

file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/SSRN-id3593258.pdf

5th Vit D3 study from Belgium.

Males showed markedly higher percentage of vitamin D deficiency ..Vit D deficiency is a possible risk factor for severe infection in males. Vit D3 supplementation might be an inexpensive, accessible and safe mitigation for covid

Link :
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20079376v1

The sixth blood serum vitamin D study has been published today - from covid patients in Switzerland. Similar conclusions to the previous five:

All covid 19 patients were deficient in vitamin D.

The study checked the averages from the year before and checked the average of 1377 random individuals.

The covid positive patients had an average of 9.3 ng/mL whilst the negative patients had an average of 24.6 ng/mL. The average of the random individuals was also 24.6.

Interesting that Professor Jonathan Van Tam, the Public Health England scientist answering questions during yesterday's briefing is of Vietnamese decent and I 'm 100% sure that he is well aware of these blood serum studies. Yet when he was asked to put forward some advice for BAME citizens, he declined to comment, citing a lack of evidence.

Link here:
www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/5/1359/htm

I know seems very suspicius.
But why dont they want to say....
Im wondering if
Victim blaming
Worried we will all be out sunbathing
Buying up vit d tablets so noone cant get them
Buying up vit d rich foods
Overdosing
People going oh well im fine i sit in the sun -dp tells me his vit d is fine but he doesnt go out in the sun and burns in about 5-10 min

Also ive noted a link to alcohol which could partly explain the male/female differences. Though obviously not linked to other differences as some religions dont drink.
Heavy alcohol consumption can lead to a deficiency of vitamin D, a nutrient that among other things helps to build and maintain strong bones. Sometimes called the “sunshine vitamin” because your body can make it from exposure to the sun’s ultraviolet rays.Vitamin D is also present in a limited number of foods. However, drinking too much alcohol can interfere with your body’s ability to absorb and activate the vitamin.