The second wave criteria

[Mallowmarshmallow]

I'm confused by the second wave criteria if anyone can shed any light on it?

The current statement that lockdown won't be eased (not even eased, not even talking about lifted) until there is no risk of a second wave.

Surely there is going to be a risk of a second wave, as evidenced in other countries and it's fairly unavoidable unless lockdown is stricter and lasts much, much longer.

I dont think this situation is sustainable for much longer tbh. Economic impact will be enormous; at some point restrictions will need to be lifted or else UK Plc will go bust 🤷‍♀️

That makes no sense to me either, we couldn't stop it entering the country so it seems unrealistic to think we can stop it going round again when it's already here. Thought lockdown was to flatten the curve and stop too many people getting it, so if we're accepting some sort of curve a second wave should be inevitable (not desirable obviously but until treatment or vaccine what can we do).

I think they’re waiting for us to have enough accurate tests available. Then we can let people out and try and contain second waves by contract tracing abs isolating pockets of people each time.

Exactly burnout. Atm furlough help for employers and the (yet to be opened) self employed scheme, along with rates grant of £10k is keeping small business ticking over. As soon as it ends we need places to be able to trade again.
I don't personally think these schemes will be extended. How can they be?
When it's all over I imagine services will be cut to the bone. Our vulnerable in society will still continue to suffer after it's all over. Very bad times are ahead for some I fear 😥

The second (and subsequent) waves are manageable when accurate plans are in place for such things as:

• Testing
• Better treatment
• Further economic intervention
• Protocols for social and work interaction
• Protocols for enhanced shielding

We are at war, and these plans take time to get into place. I am confident that in coming weeks we will see a measured and gradual movement away from lock down, but life will not be quite the same for some time. The UK is a very rich country and the Treasury interventions are an investment not just a cost.

Totally agree with that Avalanche.

There is always going to be a risk of a second wave until we have either herd immunity or a vaccine. Neither of which is likely until the end of the year. I cannot see the lockdown going on that long.

It seems we have just about managed to get through the peak of the first wave standing. What is needed now is enough spare capacity in the hospitals to have room for errors. Only then could people experiment with easing the lockdown. The European countries that are easing restrictions at the moment are the ones that have come through the first wave with plenty of spare capacity. I recon we need to get hospital numbers down by a factor of 2 (better of 4) before that is happening. At the end of this set of three weeks that may be the case.

The other possible strategy is to get infection numbers right down and then do aggressive testing and tracing (this is done in some Asian countries). But for that active virus carries need to be down below 100 or so (including the hidden ones). Would mean at least another 1-2 months of lockdown. I suspect tracing apps would need to be mandatory for that. I cannot see the UK going down that route.

Or (and this is what the other European countries seem to be doing), you are in lockdown for long enough that