Am I right in thinking this?

[Daybyday89]

So, I may be just stating the obvious.

But, am I right in thinking it’s not a case of “if” we get this virus but instead a case of “when” we get this virus? I understand the lockdown is primarily to reduce the pressure on the nhs and so that everyone who contracts covid who needs hospital treatment has all the medical facilities they need.

I can’t help but feel like we’re currently on lockdown and once the number of cases start declining, they will then relax restrictions. Then we will see another peak in cases and they will implement another full lockdown to reduce the pressure on the nhs again. Then, eventually that is how we get herd immunity. Either that, or they bring out a vaccine ASAP which I can’t see happening any time soon.

Again, sorry if I’m stating the obvious and this has already been figured out already but if that’s the case then social distancing measures aren’t necessarily to “save lives”. I mean, they are to a certain extent but if we’re all going to get it anyway then it’s just a case of some unfortunately pass away and some don’t.

Does this sound right? Just trying to make sense of everything and weigh up my chances of contracting this virus.

I think that is the mentality to ease pressure on the nhs, but I do not think every single person in the UK will contract the virus, a lot maybe at different stages of it yes but I don’t think everyone will.

Yes. Which is why the ranting and frothing about people who aren't doing it right is so pointless. They covidiots are just volunteering to get it earlier.

The curve has been flattened which gives the NHS the best possible chance to protect its staff, work out best treatment protocols and so on.

Meanwhile there is no point about being terrified about it. We have to shield the vulnerable as long as possible. For the rest of us, we're still statistically unlikely to be seriously ill.

I think you have answered your own question! Yes, most of us will probably get it, and a certain percentage will get it badly enough to require hospitilasation, critical care or maybe even ventilation. The idea of lockdown/social distancing is just to ensure we don't all get it at once but rather spread over many months, so there is a trickle rather than a flood of seriously ill people, and therefore enough oxygen/hospital bed capacity/ ventilator capacity for those who need it.

If we can get to 70% of people having had it, then it's unlikely to spread meaning that the vulnerable can come out again.

I can’t help but feel like we’re currently on lockdown and once the number of cases start declining, they will then relax restrictions. Then we will see another peak in cases and they will implement another full lockdown to reduce the pressure on the nhs again.

Yes, that's what they've said.

It does save lives in the sense that if health services were totally overwhelmed then people who needed treatment for CV wouldn't be able to receive it and nor would people needing treatment for other reasons. So there would be other side preventable deaths in both groups.

But lockdown itself causes other deaths, which has been acknowledged too.

It's a balancing act in a situation where you don't get a choice between a bad option and a good option, but between two crap options where one might be slightly less crap than the other.

*otherwise preventable deaths

It would take several years for us all to get it at a rate that would not overwhelm the NHS. I am optimistic we will have a vaccine within a year. My guess would be that the majority of people will not catch it.

As for 70% of healthy people catching it to protect the vulnerable, right now, the opposite is happening. Most of the healthy people are locked away, but the vulnerable ones in care homes who need daily contact are exposed and ... well.... vulnerable.

@theconstantinoplegardener
Yes, I think I have but I just wanted clarification.

@picklemewalnuts
How do we know it’s unlikely to spread if 70% of people get it? Do we know for sure that once you contract covid-19, you’re immune to it? I’m sure there has been cases where people have contacted it more than once? I think I read somewhere that there is 3 strains of this virus out there? Sorry, a million questions!

@atenthofaclue
Got ya!

@nellodee
I hope we get a vaccine very soon! I really hope I don’t get it, too.

In my understanding there isn't guarantee of a vaccine and the science behind herd immunity is looking shaky. There are some other trials that look promising though but I don't understand fully

I think it's going to be lockdown release for a while longer. It was on the news that Oxford University are starting testing on the vaccination.

@knocksomesense
Yeah, me neither. I read about covid-19 everyday and whilst I feel I know what I need to know, I don’t know a lot. There are people on MN that are so much more knowledgeable and seem to be well informed when it comes to this virus and I do appreciate their opinions - hence why I ask questions. I’ve seen a few different labs working on a vaccine too. Not going to lie though, this whole vaccine thing does worry me slightly as it seems a little rushed but what do I know! I think judging by the looks of things, we’ll develop herd immunity naturally before a vaccine gets released

@goose1964
Lockdown release? What do you mean by that? Yeah, I seen that. Fingers crossed!

A vaccine will take bloody ages. And i wonder what percentage will take it up anyway?

So many people (i personally know a few) seem to think they'll cautiously creep out of their houses in a few weeks to a covid free village/town/district and all will be well again.

And, more importantly, they believe that if that ISN'T the case then it'll be because so many damn 'flouters' went out during lock down and ate crisps on benches.

No, I don't think it's inevitable that most of us will get it.

The government has said that one of the conditions for easing lockdown is believing that it won't result in a second peak. It's not going to be easy to keep the levels low enough for that, but goodness knows we can't afford a second lockdown, and as a PP has said - to achieve herd immunity, we either have to overwhelm the NHS (and incur around half a million deaths), or wait years - so what's the alternative? Suppression has to be Plan A.

As for a vaccine - there are around 80 in development. Although they are indeed rushing it, they're doing it as safely as they can. Many are using tested and licensed vaccines as a base. Normally they'd test both the safety and effectiveness on animals - they're skipping the effectiveness test, but are continuing the safety one. They'd usually do animal testing and human testing sequentially, but are doing it in parallel instead. Etc.

It definitely appears that they are still planning on a 'herd immunity' - unfortunately it is still uncertain that exposure to the virus grants immunity.

Then the clearly don't understand what herd immunity is or how it is achieved.

Terrifying

@Laiste
Yeah, very good point! I’m definitely not an anti-vaxxer, I’ve had every vaccine I’m entitled too and even had more due to my line of work but I would be skeptical to jump and have this one straight away. I’d probably have to wait a little while and see. Although, that probably wouldn’t achieve anything argh, I don’t know! Honestly. There’s so much to it.

@PowerslidePanda
That’s good to know. What I wanted to hear actually.

There’s so many theory’s out there at the minute, it’s hard for someone like me to keep up but luckily, I have people like all of you to help with that and explain these things to me - so thank you

I am not sure how long it would take for everyone to get infected while using lockdowns to keep the rate of infection within NHS capacity. I think I saw one estimate of ten years! I don't know how this can be estimated though when we don't know how many people have already been infected with no or mild symptoms. We also don't know how many people get immunity post infection, and how long immunity might last.

Sorry, that is just a waffling way of saying dunno isn't it?

I came down with it the day lock down started, colleagues at work had it as well.

I'm quite glad to get it over and done with but it's been annoying being ill (and taking a while to resolve).

The reality is at some point most of us will probably get it or have had it unaware, and be fine. The lockdown is so the serious cases don't occur in a huge mass, not that they won't occur at all.