Is the fear out of proportion?

[Hotlungs]

I’m asking this genuinely as I struggle with anxiety and have a tendency to catastrophise.
I read yesterday that 99.5% of people will survive if they have the virus. Whilst I understand that people are worried they are in the 0.5% is the fear rationale? The press describing it as a ‘killer virus’ and people saying they don’t want to go to the supermarket incase they die. Obviously I’m not talking about those in the vulnerable group.
Are we doing poor risk management? Again to clarify I don’t mean the current lockdown situation to protect the NHS (which is needed) but I mean the fear of it.
We are more likely to die in our cars but we risk manager that (with precautions) to still use them. What are people’s thoughts?

@TooTrueToBeGood

I am so glad you are on the mend and I completely agree with what sunshinegirl said 👇🏻

The NHS does have capacity and so people should be being seen at a much earlier stage of the illness and being given support. As you say you needed relatively little help to recover. There really shouldn’t be desperately unwell people struggling at home when there is quite a lot of spare capacity in hospitals.

This is completely unacceptable and imo it's why our death rate is so bad. I'm no medical expert but I bet a lot more would have lived if they'd been seen earlier 😠

I don't think anyone is in a position to study the statistics yet, as we dont have all the information.
Until we have the full picture, (all positive tests, all nursing home deaths, all recovered) it is unwise to be looking at % or odds because it is not correct information.

I feel its better not to catch it because we dont know enough about it yet.

But I agree that a lot of people will recover so you might have a point.

I trust German scientists more than WHO. WHO may be forming their opinions based on testing in Wuhan but Chinese antibody tests have been found to be highly unreliable. German tests are believed to be much more accurate.

No, it's based on a study from Stanford University which looked at antibodies in healthy people.

It's also not about catastrophising. Instead of people panicking they should think the worst probably won't happen - because we're doing something about it, as best we can. It's about pointing out just how bad things could get without taking measures including lockdown, but there's no need to panic because we are taking action to mitigate things.

I agree. As someone who is at high risk due to immunosuppression I feel so much more relaxed about it since we have had lockdown. Previously, the fact that many people on here were clearly not taking it seriously made me feel quite stressed. Now it doesn't matter that much whether they take it seriously as they can't do that much to spread it anyway now that pubs, restaurants, cafes etc are shut.

No, it's based on a study from Stanford University which looked at antibodies in healthy people.

Was it the Santa Clara study?

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

As far as I know, Santa Clara has never been viewed as a hot spot for C19 so it is quite surprising WHO uses its example to make statements about the general population. 3% infection rates may be accurate for less impacted areas (e.g. Santa Clara in the US, Cornwall in the UK), however the numbers for areas like NY, London, Gangelt, Lombardia are likely to be higher (e.g. in the 10-20% range).

(Apologies for re-posting this opinion. I put it on another virus-related thread but think it's more appropriate on this one.)

I'm puzzled as to why so many UK citizens are so readily accepting the rules imposed upon them and the so-called evidence to support them. Rules being issued by a government that has clearly demonstrated over recent years that it can not be trusted to protect the public.

Just look at the Grenfell Inquiry where so far the only thing that's been protected is business interests. Recently the government has been putting Yvonne Doyle of Public Health England forward as a spokesperson for the official line on the virus. This is the same Yvonne Doyle who sat on a panel of experts facing hundreds of Grenfell survivors wanting the government to take action on properly investigating the toxicity of the fire. When told that just about every Grenfell resident was ill – a fact I can confirm having attending several residents' meetings – Doyle informed them that what they were experiencing was pre-existing conditions exacerbated by the stress of the fire. Now, the same woman is supporting pretty much the exact opposite view where the virus is concerned. When the panel at Grenfell was asked about PBDEs in the fire (a particularly nasty group of flame retardant chemicals – which were heavily present in the tower – that produce masses of dioxins and furans when they burn), Doyle could be seen turning to the person next to her and asking, "What's a PBDE?"

Doyle also assured residents that samples of the air around the tower had been taken and found to be free of toxins, etc. I and others pointed out that air samples are next to useless; they needed to also test water, soil and particularly blood. PHE under pressure then agreed to do proper testing for toxins. However, almost as soon as that meeting ended, they passed responsibility on to MHCLG – the government department responsible for allowing buildings and fire regulations to be weakened in the first place! MHCLG then commissioned Aecom – without tendering as government rules demand – a massive international company with huge holdings in real estate: buildings, in other words. Guess what: Aecom's initial findings are that the levels of toxins etc around the Grenfell tower are no more than is normal for London. This despite the US Environment Agency saying exactly the same thing after 9/11 only to admit several (safe) years later that they had got that wrong and in fact dioxin/furan levels, particularly from flame retardant chemicals, played a major role in poisoning thousands of citizens, firefighters and emergency services workers.

My experience as a government whistle-blower is that business now runs the government, in effect. It dominates standards and policy making groups and ensures that safety legislation is biased strongly to support its profits before public health. The same is going on behind the policies for dealing with the coronavirus.

Tbh if you're in one of the at risk groups, you probably should be worried.

It's the people that arnt that I can't understand. They keep pulling out this trop that it can get anyone, anyone can die, there have been reports of xyz dying.

Read any news report of a young healthy person dying with a pinch of salt. You don't know their lifestyle, medical history or families medical history. And they have no KNOWN medical conditions, not no medical conditions. Then look at the statistics. Don't look at the death rate overall, look at the death rate for under 60 and no known health conditions. Why are you lumping your likelihood of dying in with an 80 year old or a person with multiple health issues. If your healthy and under 60 you're very unlikely to get ill enough to need treatment, and those that do are still more than likey to survive (if they ignore 111 and just go to A&E).

A young healthy person can get ill or cut themselves and die from sepsis at any time. It's just bad luck. It's the same with this. If you're young and healthy a very small minority will sadly die, but that's life. You can't get yourself all worked up about it because let face it, it more than likey won't happen to you. Imagine if we thought like that over everything - you'd never get out of bed. And the previous poster is right - this hysteria is going to effect our kids, what long term damage is it going to do to them.

@Naturalbornkiller 👏🏻

Agree with naturalbornkiller and flameìngsofa. Its fascinating how willing and almost keen people are to be locked down- like it's their patriotic duty. Sensationalist media has a lot to answer for.

Folks, There are quite a few posts on here from people declaring that they are not in the at risk categories and therefore content to contract the virus and take their chances. I gave been suffering from COVID symptoms for the last 32 days (yes I have been counting) and although thank goodness I have not been hospitalized it has been a terrible, frightening and traumatic experience- nausea, diarrhoea, dizziness, aches pain (worse than any flu) and awful breathlessness (including a horrible burning feeling in my lungs). Also comes and goes - as you feel you might be getting better it comes crashing back in - very frustrating. Lots if people in non risk groups have been getting this type of pattern of symptoms and no one knows why. You really don't want to take your chances with this one - you too could be unlucky.

I feel it's important to tell the truth even though what I'm about to say could be very distressing to a lot of people: please don't read it if you're concerned about hearing more bad news regarding the lockdown.

Bottom line: UK homes contain the highest levels of flame retardant chemicals in the world: in our sofas, mattresses, carpets, bedding, curtains and, if you have a new house, the insulation in your walls. These chemicals are associated with adverse health outcomes including hyperactivity, poor neurodevelopment and lower IQ, hormone disruption, fertility problems, and cancer. They are regularly banned for being toxic. Millions of existing UK mattresses and sofas contain DecaBDE a brominated flame retardant banned about a year ago for being highly toxic.

Flame retardants are proven to leach out of products into house dust then get into our systems, e.g. UK mother's breast milk contains the highest levels of FRs in the world.

By spending more time at home, you and your children are absorbing more flame retardants and I suggest this may be more damaging to your health than the coronavirus.

It gets worse. Last year a select committee ruled that the UK's furniture flammability regulations - which are the main reason for flame retardants in our home - do not work and do not provide fire safety, and recommended that they be changed immediately to get rid of flame retardants. But the government - in the form of the Department for Business - while more or less admitting that it's known of 6 years that these regulations don't work, will not be changing them for at least another 9-12 years. Why? Well, let's just say that 4 major industries make massive profits from chemicals in our furniture; that and civil servants are terrified of it getting out that they failed to act 6 years ago.

It may also interest you to learn that Imperial College - funded by the flame retardant industry - has played a major role in blocking safety changes to these regulations.

Agree with naturalbornkiller and flameìngsofa. Its fascinating how willing and almost keen people are to be locked down- like it's their patriotic duty. Sensationalist media has a lot to answer for.

People don't actually have a lot of choice as nothing is open. Some people are probably going to other people's houses but you wouldn't know about it. Many people including the just don't want to catch it so doing whatever they can to avoid it regardless the official rules are.

@woodchuck99 and I amamazed about how selfish people can be!

It doesn't matter if someone is healthy and will bear the virus fine. There are lotsofpeople that are not,people that at the moment are being abused by their spouses because they have to stay at home,while all the conspirancy types go about saying I amnot afraid...

People that need cancer treatment not receiving them. Children with asthma that will not be able to go backto school, etc...

This is not about whether any of us can survive it, it is about making decision that will allow the society to continue to do the best for all.

@Lua not being afraid and complying with the lockdown arnt mutually exclusive.

natural born killer, you are absolutely right!

But I recognize some of the names here which are clammouring for a lockdown lifting, based on most people willbe fine....

I understand that there's a low risk of me dying from covid, but it's not the dying part I'm afraid of. It's getting the illness and going through all the pain and worry and uncertaintly.
I know people who are suffering really badly and the illness seems to go on and on, they think they're getting better and then it suddenly hits them hard again.
Also we don't yet know if there are any long term effects.

But I recognize some of the names here which are clammouring for a lockdown lifting, based on most people willbe fine....

Yes, I wonder how keen they would be if they were at high risk. Having said that, I can't get worked up over the odd person breaking "the rules" because as long as things stay shut they can't do much to spread it even if they do catch it themselves.

Since we’re on lockdown why are cases still rising?

Since we’re on lockdown why are cases still rising?

They are doing more tests.

Since we’re on lockdown why are cases still rising?

Because many people are still going to work and using public transport. There are also lots of people that don't live in single or family homes. People in HMO's, people in group homes, care homes, halfway houses, assisted living, prison, sheltered accommodation. None of those people can limit their contact with others. It only takes one person to pick it up at work, on the bus or at the shops and then everyone else in their group accommodation gets it, and passes it on to others at work, the bus or the shops.

And then think about people living in flats, all using the same door handle or rubbish shoot.

Horrific.😞

Because many people are still going to work and using public transport.

Not many people are using public transport. It's dropped very dramatically. Obviously it's still been spread about between households but I think the main reason the apparent rise in confirmed cases is that there is more testing.

I am a bit scared of the 0.4% death rate I apparently have for this virus by dint of my age category normally. If you put me in a room with 250 other people, and said, one of you is not getting out of here alive, I would NOT want to go in that room.

When this virus really had its teeth into Lombardy and Wuhan, and their health service became overwhelmed, death rates rose to 5% or more.

I am more scared of a 5% death rate, or a 1 in 20 death chance. For any nerds, that's rolling a 1 on a d20 in Dungeons and Dragons. It's called "rolling a fumble"; it's always catastrophic and it happens with remarkable regularity. I do not want to be in a position of "Roll a d20. If you roll a 1, you die."

Does anyone know anything about the cases that have ‘ no underlying conditions’

I wonder if many of them really have no underlying conditions. I'm increasingly convinced many conditions are far more common than we think. A lot of people will have something and not realise for a long time, sometimes years before symptoms are obvious. A lot of symptoms are also assumed by both patient and doctor to be anxiety or depression (or hormones if female). Of course there's always been a few unlucky people who die unexpectedly from something but I suspect they're a minority.