Is the fear out of proportion?

[Hotlungs]

I’m asking this genuinely as I struggle with anxiety and have a tendency to catastrophise.
I read yesterday that 99.5% of people will survive if they have the virus. Whilst I understand that people are worried they are in the 0.5% is the fear rationale? The press describing it as a ‘killer virus’ and people saying they don’t want to go to the supermarket incase they die. Obviously I’m not talking about those in the vulnerable group.
Are we doing poor risk management? Again to clarify I don’t mean the current lockdown situation to protect the NHS (which is needed) but I mean the fear of it.
We are more likely to die in our cars but we risk manager that (with precautions) to still use them. What are people’s thoughts?

Hi. About that ons data for under 40s,im not at all saying its wrong, but can anyone explain how it is a one in 100,000 risk? Theres been quite a few under 40s die so far x

So what Sarah Gilbert said is consistent with the quote from the article above:
"most experts do think an initial infection from the coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, will grant people immunity to the virus for some amount of time. "

Not per month no, but once this goes overall those deaths will continue and likely to be exacerbated by this lockdown and increased poverty kicking in as a result of economic downturn.

My original point which I probably didn't explain very well are that there are statistically greater harms amongst us all the time, particularly for the vulnerable but if it doesn't effect individuals directly they don't tend to concern themselves about it.

Isn’t 0.5% of the population 350,000 not 35,000?

“Isn’t 0.5% of the population 350,000 not 35,000?“

Yes

The thing that non-vulnerable people who are scared aren’t getting their head around is that COVID19 is usually not dangerous on an individual level but at the same time is catastrophic on a population level.

Yes, well put.

I’m a bit worried that there’ll be a backlash against lockdown and social distancing once antibody tests are being used more widely to see who’s had it. The non-vulnerable people afraid to leave their houses now in case it kills them might not feel the same once they learn they know ten people who’ve had it with mild cold/flu symptoms.

It's subjective and really depends on your demographic.
I work in a care home and we've had 16 people die in under 3 weeks-4 were confirmed. Naturally, for the elderly, it is scary and a serious worry for the people who work with them. Although everyone is handling it great and just getting on with things.
But if you are young(ish), healthy, have reduced exposure, and likely to survive then sure the fear is disproportionate.

People are just really crap at assessing risk. Some people would do well to worry, but you don't hear about people going on crash diets to reduce the one risk factor within their control. Our dear leader Boris, as an overweight male in his mid fifties, wasn't as low risk as he might have liked to think either. But for almost the entire population, even him, it's not a fatal illness.

There's probably a more up to date graphic, but this gives a see at a glance overview of the at risk groups by age and sex

@Ponoka7 do you have anymore info to back up your claim on natural immunity?

The thing that non-vulnerable people who are scared aren’t getting their head around is that COVID19 is usually not dangerous on an individual level but at the same time is catastrophic on a population level.

Even if 350,000 people in the UK die from this, that would just take us back to the population figure that we had a year ago. Hardly catastrophic.

You have an odd definition of ‘catastrophic’!

Really? What was wrong with the population we had a year ago? Genuine question.

Suicide kills more people and more women die at the hands of abusive partners

I don't think this is true at all. Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show 80 women were killed by a current or ex-partner between April 2018 and March 2019.
Whilst any death is sad and violent death is truly awful, how does 80 in a year equate to 'more than' the close to 20,000 who have died of Covid in a couple of months

As for suicides, they are much higher ( In 2017 there were approximately 5,821 registered deaths by suicide in the United Kingdom) but still that is 5.5K suicides in a YEAR, compared to 3-4 times that number (minimum) in a couple of months from Covid

I do agree that many people are overestimating the risk and the Media language does not help with that but statements like this go way too far the other way

Of course time will tell whether they are extra deaths or at the same level you’d expect normally but from the current perspective it seems pretty catastrophic, without including the effect of suspending so much other medical treatment for serious conditions and people dying because ambulances aren’t available.

What was wrong with the population we had a year ago?

I suspect you know this full well, but most people don’t decide whether or not an event is catastrophic or tragic or sad based on “but how does it compare to population levels a year ago?”

Plus, the NHS being overwhelmed means that a large number of deaths would not just come from Covid but from all the other services that people can’t get healthcare for, which would be pretty catastrophic as we tend to use the term.

@OuterMongolia OK, I’m getting that the people dying being fellow human beings isn’t enough for you to care, would it help if you thought about them as consumers who won’t be available to buy things and drive the economy?

Excellent posts, @nuitdesetoiles

Of course I care on a personal level, it is tragic. I thought we were specifically discussing the impact at a population level rather than a personal level?

“Impact at a population level” doesn’t just mean “overall population numbers +/- compared to some earlier population”.

We have to take a therapeutic risk with this soon, as a society overall. Im fully aware its not the same but individuals who are high risk of harm to self are kept out of hospital as much as possible because ultimately as much as it provides physical containment, it actually exacerbates the risk and gets in the way of recovery.

So we assess the risk, look at potentiating factors, protective factors and static and dynamic risk factors and once we have a formulation we work out how to intervene.

The problem with this virus is that we're still assessing and formulating it...worldwide. But we do have to carefully open up society soon, and learn to live with this. For the sake of everyone's well being. Media reporting on this has been irresponsible, even in the less sensationalist publications.

Can it be, in theory, caught repeatedly with equal severity of symptoms?

Chippity “Yes it’s absolutely ridiculous. The media have a lot to answer for.“

Yes. And government. I appreciate that the media undermined them at every turn but of all people, I thought Johnson could stick to his guns.

Just read re: Sarah Gilbert, so you likely can be reinfected, possibly even quite quickly.

Great thread OP with interesting debate.
In answer to your question I believe yes it is in the main. And I speak as someone shielding two of 5 family members.

The media - as usual- have a lot to answer for but equally people must stop believing everything they read or hear from them. They must start to realise that the media woop EVERYTHING up to sell papers!!!

I agree with the poster who stated that generally people are rubbish at calculating risk. It really is a skill. A lot allow their minds to chase fear down the rabbit hole at all costs. I’ve taken risks all my life. Sensible, well thought out, evidence based ones and it has always paid off. Put it this way, I wouldn’t have any DC with my (very healthy) HIV+ partner if I had not weighed up the risks of transmission (practically zero in healthy individuals).

It was same during and prior to Brexit. Along with Boris and his toffs, the press manipulated the situation. They fear-mongered and people believed we were doomed under the EU. They manipulated people into fearing immigrants. Yes questions needed to be asked about funding going to the EU and immigration but oh the drama of it all according to the press.

It’s the same now. Yes it’s a worrying time but like many others have said, there are always viruses or illnesses or accidents waiting to happen daily. The risk is relatively low to most people. But the media have you believe it’s ‘like a serial killer’ just waiting to take you down.

I'm glad to have found this thread, I thought it was just me thinking this. I can understand the elderly (or those with serious health conditions) being afraid as their chances are not great but the rest of us need to calm down. As PP has said - we are terrible at calculating risk. It's bizarre seeing how panicked everyone is about their health when the majority of the UK population are either smokers, overweight, underexercised or overboozed (or all of the above!). I include myself in the last two of course.