How is vaccine possible if immunity not conferred?

[LurkingElle]

The WHO is saying that virus antibody tests are dangerous because having antibodies does not necessarily mean that you’re immune, and that if you ARE immune it will probably be for only a limited time, probably one year max.
So how would a vaccine work?
And have scientists not tried and failed to develop vaccines for other coronaviruses?

And we don’t seem to develop any immunity to the common cold, eg the RSV virus, do we?

There are over 200 common cold viruses and you seldom get the same one twice.

www.verywellhealth.com/what-is-the-medical-immunity-3955691

BBC news reports that someone called Dr Maria van Kerkhove from the WHO has stated that somebody with antibodies is not necessarily protected from reinfection.

She also said that it's a good thing so many antibody tests are being developed.

So she wasn't saying it will never work and antibody tests are a waste of time because you definitely don't get immunity, she was saying we don't know for sure about reinfection and we need a reliable test that we can validate plus more evidence on whether the presence of antibodies detected by a test actually does give immunity.

Thanks @Aposterhasnoname. That probably fits broadly with my experience of getting norovirus every couple of years.

The difficulty with the concept of immunity to something like noro or a cold is that generally the illness is so mild and self limiting that no one is tested so which virus is causing the illness is unknown. There are also hundreds of viruses that can cause similar symptoms so you may get a tummy bug twice in a year for example but there is no way to know if one, both or neither of those illnesses were caused by the norovirus for example.

If you thought you’d had noro twice you would assume you hadn’t got immunity but it is entirely likely you just had two different viruses causing gastric symptoms.

There have been a few times where both the kids have had something and DH has caught it too but I’ve escaped it or vice versa. I often wonder how much of that is down to some sort of prior exposure.

I read an article from a scientist who had been in the process of developing a vaccine against all coronaviruses before COVID 19 was around. The issue was whether anyone would want/pay for a vaccine that would only protect you against a small proportion of the viruses that cause cold like symptoms.

And we don’t seem to develop any immunity to the common cold, eg the RSV virus, do we?

We do develop immunity to the common cold - its just there are a lot of viruses that cause it, and the immunity is not life long, total immunity.
This is why a cold can be deadly to a population which hasn't encountered it before (Inuit I believe).

It is also why if Fred gets a cold, then passes it on to his parents and siblings, he still gets over the cold and doesn't "recatch" it from the rest of his family.
If we developed no immunity then we wouldn't "get over" a cold, and would recatch it from anyone who has that cold around us. You don't catch the same cold in the same season.

Yes very good point Molly about not re-catching the cold in the same season. And thank you Aposterhasnoname.
So it seems likely that SOME immunity is conferred so we need to hope that the immunity lasts at least a year and then probably have annual vaccines?
And we also need to hope that the virus doesn’t mutate too often or into something more deadly.
The reason that flu vaccines are done annually is not that immunity is so short-lived but that there are new influenza strains very frequently, so each vaccine is slightly different from the last?

And we don’t seem to develop any immunity to the common cold, eg the RSV virus, do we?

Not immunity but yes, we get mitigation.

The cold would have been as destructive to people when it first appeared as COVID is to us now. If people and their immune systems get used to having a mild case of corona, it will be annoying but tolerable.

Not necessarily just means we don’t know for certain and need to be careful just in case.

Other leading experts think it will confer immunity and that could last anywhere between a year and a lifetime. We just don’t know. It appears the virus is changing more slowly than influenza so yearly vaccination may not be necessary. Plus it may change to be less deadly over time.

The fact is we don’t know. And people need to stop quoting cases of reinfection which aren’t proven. We also can’t tell whether a virus is live or dead when tested positive, so positive test doesn’t equal infectious or still poorly.

I’m not a specialist but my understanding is that viruses rarely mutate to become more deadly. If you kill the host too quickly the virus cannot spread and burns out quite quickly.

It appears from the research I’ve so far that this virus is mutating less quickly than the flu which is positive. Obviously nothing is guaranteed but I’d be hopeful that an annual/bi annual vaccine would be a definite possibility. Even partial immunity would significantly slow the spread.

At the moment they are talking about antibodies created by your inate immune system through catching the disease, rather than a pathogenic vaccine that delivers acquired immunity to a specific virus agent. Acquired immunity can last a lifetime, like measles, rubella, chicken pox, but the question for Covid-19 isn't answerable just yet.

If an annual dose is required it could be added into the flu vaccine for example.

I don't think we know yet even if you can catch it twice. Also if there were a vaccine it would probably be something offered as now to certain people - currently I think it is voluntary for those over 70, those in the NHS etc. I have not caught flue for 30 years and don't have a vaccination for it and seem to have a pretty good immune system so I doubt I would be on any list to have a covid 19 vaccination nor would I necessarily want one whereas I am very pro all the childhood vax like MMR, BCG etc

With colds and Noravirus is it that we don’t develop immunity at all - or is it that they evolve quickly and at some point get round our immunity?

We do develop immunity to colds and noro, see the links above.

I am not a doctor although my uncle and father were and my sibling is but I thought we got immunity to each cold we caught but that most of them were different from each other just as evry winter there are lots of flu viruses and the state picks the worst one and vaccinates those who choose to take the vaccine and qualify for it against just that one.

However coronavirus is new and I don't think we yet know basic things about it - if you can get it twice, if once it is in you it can grow dormant for a month and then kindo f rise again as they seem to think in S Korea might happen. I also think the tests are very unreliable. One Uk nurse had three negative tests when she clearly had it and only in hospital with a lung scan showing she had it did she eventually get a 4th positive test that she currently had it. They thought possibly those pushing the tube up your nose and right into your throat as it hurts people so much might not be taking the test correctly in the first place for fear of hurting people. All sounds very awful.

I'm annoyed. This has been very badly reported.
What the WHO actually say is that not enough people have antibodies to achieve herd immunity, so herd immunity won't protect us (yes).

They don't say immunity is impossible, but rather you can't rely on it to help control cv19 (yet).

As reported, I completely understand why OP got confused!
You need to find to the actual words the WHO spokespeople used. Find them speaking, hear their quotes, ignore journalists trying to summarise.

my understanding is that ppl do easily get immunity to coronavirus colds (only 4 strains).

Problem is "the common cold" is caused by a zillion viruses of all sorts of virus families. Some of the others may mutate, but coronaviruses are quite stable.

@lljkk

I suspected it would be part of the “herd immunity is not the answer at the moment” message that the WHO have been communicating.

I think the desperation to just say something, anything about Coronavirus is causing lots of the media to be sloppy with their reporting. They also rarely reference the source material so you have to go searching for it. It’s frustrating.

I wonder whether the way out of this will be an effective treatment, rather than a vaccine.

@lljkk I agree. I watched BBC news and the reporter said what the OP said. I then listened to what Dr Michael Ryan said and he was pretty much doing the herd immunity is not the answer and we cant rely on it

I even rewound it to check that he said something different to what was reported

Thank you everyone for the clarification!

Tolleshunt, may be. Eg they are finding ventilators may in fact make it worse for some so that must have been a massive learning curve. I for example am not sure I would consent to a ventilator but would take oxygen.

I would like a lot more data on who is most likely to be hit by this - we know men are, the old are and those with underlying conditions - diabetes. If most people are not at risk, particularly if they are very thin then one solution might be we all eat a lot less and get down to minimum healthy BMI which ironically might "save our NHS" a lot better than just keeping covid 19 infection low. If you know you might well die if you are fat people might have an incentive to eat less.

"Am losing faith in the WHO though honestly as they simply don’t know" No one knows in advance.

"I wonder whether the way out of this will be an effective treatment, rather than a vaccine."

Agreed. Its interesting that the most effective treatments so far are those usually used for Malaria and HIV. Two illnesses for which there are not vaccines available.

Exactly, tallRachel

Yes, Xenia we might need to get a lot more creative and nuanced with the solutions.