Lockdown until we get a vaccine?

[MarathonMo]

Re: the 'vaccine task force' and now united effort & investment to find a vaccine, is it possible the lockdown could last until this could be meaningfully rolled out?

Depends on how likely they are to find a vaccine. Despite huge amounts of effort, time and money, there is still no vaccine for HIV, for example. There is no vaccine for SARS or MERS.

Usually takes months if not years (if at all!) to produce a reliable, safe vaccine. I don't see how we can stay in lockdown until then. There would be nothing to come back to! Scary times.

Restrictions esp for the vulnerable will last until a vaccine, a full lockdown is only to ‘flatten the curve’.

Bear in mind, the common cold is also a corona virus and we still don’t have a vaccine for that.

I can’t imagine anyone wanting to risk waiting too long. I’m expecting a gradual release of restrictions from June - I hope.

No, I think waves of on and off lockdown measures are the plan, after this initial lockdown, maybe another a couple of months after this one ends and so on. Will depend on our numbers and how it goes, how much ventilator bed space capacity etc

We are hoping for a vaccine. Work is ongoing, but in reality it could be a year or more away, if they even manage to successfully produce one.

No. We won't be on lockdown for that long. I don't think people would accept it.

I felt like the language and the answers to the questions really seemed to point to a feeling/information they have that a vaccine was the only real way out & that they were directly all resources towards it to that end.

Agree, that doing things in waves and general easing make sense but I feel the criteria they have outlined for that easing are not going to be met anytime soon.

Some firms are already testing vaccines

But its still months and months away, we won’t be kept in lockdown til we have one but i can imagine that the rules may be relaxed and then tightened on a regular basis

Directing not directly. It's the first time they've really outlined vaccine plans head of other measures and antibody testing etc. Which may not mean anything of course.

I have to say, this is a thing I don't understand when people discuss the various reactions by different countries and their effectiveness. What is the exit plan?

Yes other countries, so far, have used testing and restricting of movement to varying degrees of success. However, what happens long term? Yes we could have a vaccine within months but will be probably another year before it is tested sufficiently, produced and distributed in large enough quantities to be effectively rolled out across countries and continents.

China has restricted all entry points to China and they have quarantine areas for 2 weeks on entry and moving between areas with strict enforcement of testing and confinement. Is that something countries in the west are able to do and afford to do? For maybe 18 months?

Even if one country gets covid under control, others won't be able to and it won't be easy to stop travel from just some countries so even the best prepared countries will get reinfected.

I think allowing the virus to spread at a slower rate and development of treatments rather than a vaccine will be the way out.

Bear in mind, the common cold is also a corona virus and we still don’t have a vaccine for that

This is a bit misleading.
Firstly... some common colds are coronaviruses. Some are RSV’s, some are rhinoviruses, etc. There are over 250 strains of common cold, and a vaccine would be needed for them all. Additionally, there is no real incentive to develop a vaccine for a common cold, as they are in the main harmless.

Maybe a treatment and a vaccine are bring looked into? If the treatment comes up trumps then we may have more time to create and test a vaccine?
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebola-drug-shows-promise-in-early-coronavirus-trials-2rd36kkhr

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/world-biggest-drug-trial-covid-19-uk

I think it’s incredibly unlikely, the country would be bankrupt. In any event it is not what is happening anywhere else so I can’t see why we would be the odd one out.

My guess would be a test, trace, isolate system to manage new infections together with a slow phased release of some restrictions. It wouldn’t surprise me if things like wfh where possible and limits on large gatherings remain for the foreseeable though.

I would also be hopeful of drug therapies becoming available before a vaccine which would improve outcomes for those who become very unwell.

All of that is based on nothing but guess work though!

In any event it is not what is happening anywhere else so I can’t see why we would be the odd one out

Exactly this.

Drug therapies weren't mentioned but agree these make sense, maybe it is just that the vaccine 'task force' is a new thing it was given prominence today (?)

I also think we can be a bit more hopeful of a vaccine than some suggest. Vaccines are not hugely profitable generally as I understand it. A vaccine for a very mild illness is not going to have mass appeal and so I suspect you would struggle for funding even if you wanted to develop one. SARS and MERS have both been fairly self limiting in terms of outbreaks and so, again, there is not mass demand for a vaccine.

There is limitless money being poured into a vaccine for this from every rich country in the world. There are around 100 vaccines in development. I’m hopeful that with the entire scientific community of the world behind it and endless resources we’ve got a pretty good chance.

Vaccines were never rolled out for SARS and MERS as the outbreaks ended before they were developed. There was no longer any need.

There are various clinical trials underway with respect to drug treatments (including a large one in the UK) and a couple of treatments that look hopeful. Including an experimental drug originally developed to treat Ebola. I’d be very surprised if they didn’t come up with something.