When do you think lockdown will be relaxed?

[LolaLollypop]

Ireland have given a date of 3rd May, France 11 May. What about us?

And which rules do you think will be relaxed first? Personally, I am really hoping they allow slightly larger groups of people to meet (I.e friends and family). I'm not too bothered about pubs and restaurants but I'm really missing seeing family & friends.

I really hope it's 3rd May for us (providing necessary criteria are met).

@stuckindoors77 I know I’m just saying. I’ve learnt that speculation will not get anyone anywhere.

We will all get our hopes up too soon and be left disappointed.

I think the restrictions will start be relaxed from mid-May with schools back after the May half term (so early June). This would align with our European neighbours who are 2 weeks ahead of us (like Italy, Spain, France). Sadly, this country simply can not afford for the lock down to go on any longer than that, irrespective of the human costs.

We all know that the lock down was never about saving lives but increasing NHS capacity and there is is already indication that this has been achieved so it also won’t surprise me if the restrictions are lifted even earlier.

The virus is going to be around a while and chances are most of us will get it at some point. I’m also sceptical we’ll find a workable vaccine within 18m, we didn’t for SARs or MERs. I think it’s more probable that an acceptable treatment is found but either way, the world has to move on.

I am another who needs a bit of hope right now. I don't have any serious mental health issues, but it is something that I do need to work on. I usually do this by running/gym and looking forward to something. Obviously I dont go to the gym at the moment, but I do still run (although not as far as I was - but that is something I have decided to take upon myself).

Currently I have 2 holidays booked. Butlins in June and France in August (driving so not flying). I really couldn't say if either will go ahead. I dont think they will - we wont be completely be out of lockdown for Butlins to work and international travel may be tricky for France. So while they are not yet cancelled I can't help but have a glimmer of hope, then I think about it and get down because I know Im just waiting for them to not be possible. I am trying so hard not to pin my hopes on them.

Also races. I love to go to races (running), but obviously these aren't going ahead. So again nothing to look forward to there either. I always know when my next big race is and really look forward to them.

So while we realise that its not up to us, talking about it can give us a bit of hope at times (until someone comes along and says that they have been secretly been told we're to stay like this for another 6 months)

Personally I think this current lockdown will be extended by 3 weeks. The government wont tell us any more than that on Thursday when they announce it, just that its extended until May 7th.

Then I think we will be allowed to visit family and friends, but only at houses and we are to be mindful of cleanliness and social distancing. Some shops may open, but they will be limited how many people are allowed in at once.

Schools will open after half term, but not for everyone. Year 10's and possibly others too. There still might be a focus on if you can keep them at home please do, but they may allow more children in than key workers if parents have to go back to work.

It will also be around half term that we will be allowed to meet up in parks, coastal areas, forests etc. Again being mindful of social distancing and cleanliness.

Eventually pubs, theatres, cinemas etc will open, but they too will have limits to how many people they will allow in at once.

Even later (possibly 2021) will be big events like London Marathon, sports events etc but these will be the last things to be starting appear. Way after Bars etc.

I think the government will extend the lockdown for another 3 weeks with shops and schools opening around 11th May. This would give 2 weeks before the May half term (England) all’s well they stay open if not cases would begin to rise again during the half term and we go back into lockdown early June. Assuming things are positive more of life will return to normal e.g restaurants, cinemas etc with reduced numbers. I will be interested if they change their minds on masks-I think they are only holding back because as a country we don’t have enough to be issuing them to the general population. It’s taken them long enough to issue PPE and still there are problems.

Possibly early to mid May? Like you OP, I’m hoping that visiting others at their homes will at least be lifted before too long. I’m not as bothered by other things.
I think clothes shops and other non essential shops will need to start opening relatively early on. Probably open spaces like parks too.
I’m not expecting schools to reopen before September and then probably a gradual return or reduced timetable.

Nobody knows, so what's the point in speculating?
We're only just relatively new at lockdown in the UK, so I can't see it being this month, or even next.
I'm thinking realistically they'll start relaxing the rules by possibly mid June, it wouldn't make sense to just come out of it now.
Too soon and would render the lockdown pointless.
I don't think it'll go back to normal straight away even when we come out, maybe more of a gradual thing.
That's just my opinion anyway

Like you OP, I’m hoping that visiting others at their homes will at least be lifted before too long. I’m not as bothered by other things

That's the one I think people will struggle with most and why it can't all be long term.
How do you feasibly keep that up?
Those living alone, or used to seeing family and friends, are suddenly by themselves.
It'd start to affect mental health and that's just a much a worry.

Bear in mind that Spain have just changed from a temporary total lockdown back to a strict lockdown.
What people are describing as a relaxed lockdown is still much stricter than the UK lockdown and is also being rigidly enforced by police.
Regarding the cost to the economy, economists looking at past pandemics find that lockdowns promote a stronger recovery as the higher level of death and illness is also very bad for the economy. Whether the government will consider this is another question.

When there is a vaccine would suit me. I've heard September is the earliest this could be available.

September 2021 maybe, or beyond. Gotta get used to it.

Successful vaccine is not going to happen anytime soon.

Anyway, for some there will be pent up need to SPEND, so the economy will surge when restrictions are lifted.

I hope schools go back in June. I fear for the mental health of my DS14 and the no contact with others his own age. Our attention cannot compete with his peers being with him. I know this situation is necessary but it's so hard to watch the results of this isolation on my son.

I agree @NeverForgetYourDreams . I'm watching my usually outgoing 16 year old son turn into a distant shell of himself, he doesn't know what to do - yr 11 so no work to do.

I know it's no comparison to people dying but still sad to see.

I'm really hoping they'll find a treatment that makes it easier to save lives, sooner rather than later

It's so hard isn't it. I'm trying to keep my business afloat and so all he's doing is playing computer games. A board game only lasts an hour at most and what 14 year old wants to be hanging round with his parents 247 anyway. I'm so sad for him

Hmmm...my guess is:

Current restrictions extension until w/c 11 May

From w/c 11 May, non essential shops, factories, workplaces that can operate social distancing to be reimplemented

Meeting with other households under X amount allowed

Greater separation of NHS locations regarding Covid treatment to allow essential other procedures to begin

(schools fit somewhere in around here but now my area of expertise)

[Gov monitoring for 2 weeks - all being acceptable we move to...]

w/c 25 May - restaurants that can implement social distancing measures / less than X people at a time can open

Lifting restrictions on open air/public spaces. Can sit on benches again fucking huzzah

[Gov monitors for 3 weeks]

WC 15 June - Social events with < X number of people allowed (funerals, weddings)

Churches/worship open to max number

I honestly think there will be an 'in' with the government and the media to gloss over and pull back the CV headlines during this.
The media need the same thing as the government, to get the country moving again.
I wouldn't be surprised at all, and I don't even think it's a bad thing. The daily mail have probably shaved a few years off everyone's life expectancy the past few months.

I think it will be June.

Does anyone else sometimes just stop and think is this really happening?

If someone had said to me months ago that from March you will be WFH, schools will be closed and you will only be allowed to leave your house for essential reasons i would have thought they were mad! Its so surreal.

I think schools will be open in May.

@Zeusthemoose - what makes you say that? Just a hunch? I'm not baiting, genuinely curious 🙏

June, after all the holidays in May I think.
I remember someone ages ago asking ‘are you considering keeping your children home from school’ when this started to break late Feb or early March and we all said ‘why?’. I so regret being so flippant. I wonder now if they try and make schools open in May or June and you want to keep your child at hone would we be fined etc? Personally (only for my family), I am at home so I would really want mine to stay home until September.

Why would they open in June though?
I really can't see it myself. It'd only be a couple of months or so after shutting them, and in June colleges and Yr 11 school shuts, and July for everyone else.
It'd be pointless for just a couple of weeks opening again and then summer holidays out again for another month.
Makes sense to just stay off until Sept - sufficient time to ease out of lockdown, not just send everyone straight back after a couple of months,

I think June might see some restrictions lifted but not travel or mass gatherings.
My friend lives in NYC(citizen there with Dh still over there) and she and her DS were visiting family here she was supposed to return in mid March but her flight keeps getting cancelled she was booked for May 2nd but that’s cancelled now with no new date given. Another friend had their U.K. wedding postponed to next year- originally they wanted to move to August(teachers) but the venue said no guarantee they would be open again.

My concern is people who had small businesses, they are going bankrupt and many of them in country areas could easily restart, earning money, employing others

London and the big cities much longer, that is where people are dying

There has to be some restrictions lifting after the next lock down ends, so potentially end of the first week in may latest. They need to get the economy moving again.

There will still be some social distancing and I would guess social venues etc still closed, but the damage this lock down is doing can’t be under estimated and we will feel the effects for long after we forget about corona. They need to get people back to work.

None of us really have any idea but I think perhaps some time in May/June. It feels unsustainable beyond that, economically and from a social/mental health perspective.

I'm in London and a friend who is a nurse told me that in the hospital she works in the admission rate is starting to level out. I know that's only one hospital but if it is part of a pattern I wonder if that might lead to some restrictions being eased so that more of us catch it.

It's interesting that when we went into this I didn't think too much about afterwards and just focussed on not getting the virus and staying well. I now realise that it's not about whether I get it, it's about when. It's worrying as my DH is fairly high risk, but we cannot live our lives forever the way we are all living now.

My DH, who is normally very sociable and out every day, loves meeting friends, pubs, restaurants etc is surprisingly coping with this really well. I'm much more of a home bird but I'm hating every minute of the restrictions on my freedom. On a human level it's fascinating to see how people react. But I can't wait for it to be over.

@Flaxmeadow
Italy didnt actually lockdown until the 20th/21st March. Earlier they locked down the worst affected areas (which led to a number of people from these areas going elsewhere to stay with family or to their second home) but didnt close non essential businesses and the rest of the country until much later.

The other important aspect is that many people need treatment, scans etc that are not being done currently. This is putting people with treatable conditions at risk of them getting worse.