Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Why are so many people still convinced that following/tightening "the rules" has this thing over sooner?

91 replies

Makeitgoaway · 14/04/2020 09:22

Or maybe it's me who's misunderstood?

"The Rules" are not intended to prevent the spread they are intended to slow it to a level where the NHS can cope with ICU admissions. So far, we have done that, new beds have been created quicker than they have been filled.

If we slow the spread more than necessary (I.e. so that there remains spare capacity) the crisis lasts longer than necessary. No additional lives are saved, the deaths are just more spread out in time and it's longer until we can get back to normal.

The restrictions were never intended to stop us getting ill, just to stop us all being ill at once. It won't be over until there is a vaccine (years?) or until "enough" people have had it that it no longer presents a substantial threat to the NHS.

The obsession with having rules followed/tightened, beyond what is necessary to protect the NHS just means the whole thing lasts longer, which is why, the rules are deliberately set up so that there will still be some, but reduced, transmission.

Why do people keep asserting that if we all follow the rules to the nth degree it will be over quicker.

FWIW I am following the rules, wfh, daily exercise, occasional essential shopping, but I'm frustrated with people who want to insist the exercise shouldn't be allowed, or that people in non essential jobs who can't wfh shouldn't be allowed to work, or that all non essential deliveries should be banned. It makes no sense.

OP posts:
B1rdbra1n · 14/04/2020 12:21

The lockdown has worked
Are you not jumping the gun there? Do we not need to wait and see if there are further surges of infection?

ravenmum · 14/04/2020 12:24

Here in Germany, we took in Italian patients, flown in from Italy because there were no beds for them in their own country. The lockdown was too late in Italy, so cannot be said to have worked there.

Makeitgoaway · 14/04/2020 12:26

Absolutely ravenmum, it stands to reason that the tighter a lockdown, the higher the likelihood is of a second surge when lockdown is lifted.

OP posts:
B1rdbra1n · 14/04/2020 12:29

It's a bit like whack-a-mole really isn't it

Laiste · 14/04/2020 12:36

B1rdbra1n i know this is not a laughing matter but ... Grin thank you. My first chuckle of the day x

B1rdbra1n · 14/04/2020 12:48

😊☺️

TheCanterburyWhales · 14/04/2020 12:55

The lockdown is working then.

Italy has peaked and is now coming down the other side of the curve.

It's undeniable that lockdown also came late there. The regional govt of Lombardia was begging the central govt to do something for weeks before national action was taken.

I'm sure the relatives of those who have died because of many govts' tardy responses will be rolling in the aisles at the above comment.

justanotherneighinparadise · 14/04/2020 13:01

God that made me laugh a very black humoured laugh too 🤦🏻‍♀️

NotDavidTennant · 14/04/2020 13:04

Allowing the virus to spread widely is extremely risky, as we still don't know if herd immunity is even achievable.

okiedokieme · 14/04/2020 13:05

Because people either don't understand the science or choose not to because it's easier to believe that it can be eradicated.

justanotherneighinparadise · 14/04/2020 13:07

I think I wrote this on the vaccine thread an hour ago. Apparently according to an expert on today’s BBCs podcast only 4% of the UKs population have been exposed to covid 19 so far. 4% !!!!!!!!

okiedokieme · 14/04/2020 13:09

Actually it will be "over" quicker if we just let it rip through the population but people will die in large numbers in a short time, and possibly some of them could have been saved if hospitals are overwhelmed and turn patients away. The vast majority who will die whatever route we took are those with serious underlying health problems and often in their last months of life but there will be others who die

B1rdbra1n · 14/04/2020 13:12

Allowing the virus to spread is risky
You are framing the government's response as 'allowing the virus to spread' but it could also be framed as 'not knowing the best method for dealing with an unprecedented situation'?

B1rdbra1n · 14/04/2020 13:14

only 4% of the UK's population have been exposed
The virus is a minute particle which spreads unseen in the air, a guess from an expert is still only a guess, and different expert would make a different guess.....

justanotherneighinparadise · 14/04/2020 13:15

No one is going to react positively to piles of bodies littering the streets. So I’m pretty sure the risk was calculated to minimise civil unrest also.

ravenmum · 14/04/2020 13:17

@TheCanterburyWhales If you mean that the lockdown is flattening the curve, then yes, it does seem to be working, although it's only just started to flatten so we really don't know how flat it will get.
That doesn't clash in any way with the point of this thread, that the aim of the lockdown is to flatten the curve, not to make it go right down again so that it takes years and years for us all to get it.

TheCanterburyWhales · 14/04/2020 13:19

Yes, I know. I'm on the graphs thread which is very interesting for those keen to understand the science. I can recommend it. Smile

SarahTancredi · 14/04/2020 13:19

Its far too early to call any lockdown anywhere a success yet. In fact hasn't wuhan had to re introduce restrictions in some places as cases started to rise again?

These people are just enjoying having a go at people and playing the competitive isolation game.

It's all a bit "I'm.considerably richer than yow! "

Theres no fact/science to their claims.

Yeah lock down means there will be less cases of having to choose who to ventilate.

But you cant get the 46 million people yet to have it and get anti bodies by june so they are talking bollocks

sadforthekoalas · 14/04/2020 13:20

I also agree OP, this has been troubling me. That people seem to think that the "better" we behave the quicker it will be "over" and can get on with life as usual in a month or so. I fear those people won't handle it well when they realise it's not that simple and some risk (albeit lower) remains.

ravenmum · 14/04/2020 13:21

Not very flat yet in Italy even.

Why are so many people still convinced that following/tightening "the rules" has this thing over sooner?
ravenmum · 14/04/2020 13:22

I'll look out for the graphs thread 👍

NoMorePoliticsPlease · 14/04/2020 13:23

Because if we relax the rules too soon it surges back out of control and we are back where we started

SarahTancredi · 14/04/2020 13:26

Because if we relax the rules too soon it surges back out of control and we are back where we started

Isnt that gonna happen anyway with a virus you cant vaccinate against where the level of resistance is minimal amongst those who have had it and many wont even know they have it

LostInSaigon · 14/04/2020 13:30

Lock down achieves slowing down and if done properly also will stop the virus in its tracks, best ecample of this is Vietnam, they wait till there is no new cases for 14 days before lifting lock downs. If we had started the UK lock down after half term when many returned from italy, wed be going back to work by now. Because our dearest Boris and his cabinet were more interested in saving money they banked on killing off all the old and terminally ill. This plan has now back fired and is a national disgrace. The worst part is that because of this our lock down will continue for a number of months while countries like Vietnam who took the threat seriously will be fully back up and running in a matter of weeks. I hope that once this is over the torries will be held accountable for the thousands of deaths that they have caused.

B1rdbra1n · 14/04/2020 13:32

We can't trust anything that comes out of Wuhan, it's already becoming clear that around 2 million people have died in China but they are claiming the only a few thousand have died