AIBU to think most of us will get it at some point?

[OnceUponATimeWhen]

I keep hearing people talking about Covid as though they don’t expect to ever get it. My understanding is that the government is aiming to slow the spread so we don’t overwhelm the nhs but that even the lockdown measures won’t actually stop the spread. Also once lockdown is lifted it will again spread but the government will monitor and put restrictions in place to ensure hospitals can cope. It’s a bit of a scary thought but AIBU to think that most of us will get it eventually unless we are shielding?

Most people will get it and most people will be fine, and it will be sad for those who lose lifes. It is about preventing the overrun of the nhs, unless a vaccine is found it is just delaying that's all.

Most will get it and a lucky few will dodge it until there's a vaccine. It's Russian roulette though so I'd rather not find out how bad I'd get it and my plan is to avoid it for as long as possible until at least the nhs can cope. That should be everyone's strategy if possible.

It’s hard to say because of the spread of infection across the country, so while statistics may show it it’s going to be clustered in densely populated areas. I live in rural Suffolk, don’t know anyone who’s had it but two 2go have self isolated with symptoms/children with symptoms of the cough I had before the virus.

The UK government strategy is still that most people will get it. So a lot of people will die.
No it is not inevitable that most people get it. But you have to do what Germany has done to stop that happening.
We will have a lot of people die that was avoidable.
We have already had over 11,000 people die in hospital and who knows how many thousands of people in care homes and in the community. This is with a 10% infection rate. Lots more will die.
The government sees this as the price to pay to save the economy.

@HeresMe You sound so cold when you say its sad for people who lose their life. So very cold. Thousands of people.

I’d happily get it tomorrow and get it over with. As far as I’m concerned it’s when not if and I will almost certainly be fine. Obviously there’s a risk I won’t be but it’s a pretty low risk. Like everyone else I am hoping they manage to get an antibody test up and running ASAP, fingers crossed I’ve already had it!

Yes of course most of us will get it.

I find it incredible the number of people who seem to think this will just “go away” if we all hide in our houses for a few weeks.

If most of us do get it

Best estimates area 1% death rate that's millions dead, or a hopeful 0.1% death rate then hundreds of thousands dead, over half a million? Would you get on a plane with those sort of odds? ( plane crashes daily)

And it would take over 10 years for most people to catch it in a way that does not overwhelm the NHS

Most people getting it is not the strategy in most other countries which seem to be trying to stall it until vaccine / treatment appear

No that doesn't mean lockdown for 18 months either. If you can squash it low enough with lockdown then a social distancing and test and trace method could keep it at an extreamly low level.

China are only importing cases, and it looks like that is South Korea's problem also.

It will mean restrictions until a vaccine or suitable antiviral treatments are widely available , but not full lockdown

I dont want to get it, and dont want to get it over with, since there is no proof that getting it once stops you getting it a second time.

In my mind there is tension between what benefits the individual and what benefits the majority. For me personally, it seems better just to catch it and get it over with.

I accept attempting to do that could cause risk to others and that if everyone did the same thing the nhs would be overwhelmed. I’m hoping antibody tests (when they finally arrive) might show the cough I had in March was it which would solve the problen although I suspect I will be disappointed and it was just some standard winter virus.

It’s much more likely than not that catching and recovering from the virus will provide at least some short term immunity. That’s good enough for me.

Of course most people will get it, we can’t stay in lockdown forever, there is no vaccine fot at least for 18 months. @Sunshinegirl82O agree more people recover from this than die, there has not been one report of someone getting it a second time and being really ill. I would not take a rushed through vaccine anyway.

The government strategy was “most people will get it we just need to slow the spread”, but by their current estimates this would mean 200,000+ dead so that’s why they’ve gone for the lockdown strategy instead. Current estimates are that the lockdown has slowed transmission to below 1 which will reduce spread.

Alternatives after lockdown are either a rolling cycle of lockdowns or putting in a strategy to test and trace once cases are down to a manageable number.

@Gin96. Im afraid you are wrong there are indeed reports from of people getting it, testing negative and testing positive again. Source new scientist here. But i read other reports from china way back in feb

Herd immunity is almighty great big gamble for a theory there is zero evidence for. Moreover we now up to 3 strains. The longer the virus is allowed to spread the more strains will exist. Which is why WHO are still working on eradicating.

I think @Gin96 was saying that whilst some people had tested positive for a second time none of those people have become very unwell. Whether they tested positive twice because of faulty testing, a “reactivation” of the original infection or an entirely new infection is not yet fully understood as far as I am aware. That said, strong immune responses have been observed in the majority of people and the virus appears to be mutating slowly (less slowly than flu) which is positive.

Whether or not herd immunity is what we are striving for at a population level is different to the individual benefits of getting the virus and recovering with immunity. If, as an individual, you get the virus, recover and become immune you are probably at an advantage over the element of the population who haven’t has the virus. However, everyone seeking to become advantaged one that way is damaging to the population as a whole. Therein lies the tension in my view.

@Hazelnutlatteplease please show me a repot where someone has been really ill a second time with coronvirus? You would of thought medical staff who are dealing with coronvirus on a daily basis with high viral load, there would have found a case? I can’t find any at the moment? That may change.

The report on your link shows they’ve had traces not that they were ill, the report also said they don’t know yet. The report also said:

There is some anecdotal evidence of reinfections, but we really don’t know,” says Ira Longini at the University of Florida. It may be that the tests used were unreliable, which is a problem with tests for other respiratory viruses, says Jeffrey Shaman at Columbia University in New York.

Read more: www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532754-600-can-you-catch-the-coronavirus-twice-we-dont-know-yet/#ixzz6JZoLfJrP

I suspect that the control strategy (more like attitudes about control) mean(s) that only about 18-20% of population will get it before vaccine is rolled out & we're all heavily pressured to get the vaccine. The economy will be in ruins by then.

ps: if reinfection is extremely likely, then no vaccine will ever work, either, I suppose.

It's a great plot for scifi dystopia story. A society with very little physical contact allowed because of a circulating deadly virus no one can get immunity from ever, and that transmits if you are within 5 metres of someone who has no symptoms but is infected for at least 5 seconds, and that spreads constantly & rampantly on supermarkets & paper post we receive into the home or via cardboard packaging at supermarket (all common beliefs on MN).

Eventually no one is ever treated because the health service collapses; you can get prescribed mail order antibiotics but no surgery or physical procedures possible because the HCWs have given up. If you get (magical virus) then you just suffer at home until you get better or you die.

Only brave women dare to have children because they know there will be no physical support if the birth goes wrong. Birth at home with only your husband to help, if you have one... maybe lots more babies by sperm donor. But basically, would you bring a child into this existence?