There will be no miracle at the end of 12 weeks

[AustBron]

I don't understand what the powers that be think will happen to those of us in the extremely vulnerable category when we reach the end of the current 12 week shielding.

Are they going to tell us to lock ourselves away for another 12 weeks or more? Are we just being shielded solely to protect the NHS and eventually when enough of the unshielded population have had Covid-19 will we be allowed out to catch it and die in droves in the freed up intensive care beds?

Or is it envisioned that we will all have to be completely shielded until a vaccine is found?

I may not be thinking very clearly here, I am extremely frightened because I'm in that group, frightened that my cancer will kill me because my checkups have been canceled, frightened about a new and potentially very serious health issue that was discovered just before Covid-19 appeared and my appointments for that have been canceled too.

Really I'm just bloody frightened and would welcome any points of view that would clarify how people who aren't quite as scared as I am, see things progressing

I think there is little doubt it will be a longer haul before normality for those in shielded group. I agree with what others have said about incremental improvements helping - I'm not all that hopeful of a vaccine soon, but all the time they are working out better ways to treat people, and more about infection and who is and isn't vulnerable, and computers will be crunching vast amounts of data to calculate things (I have a friend whi works on health AI and it can do amazing stuff). When you add those together, it will improve things. Everything crossed for you, OP.

Are we just being shielded solely to protect the NHS and eventually when enough of the unshielded population have had Covid-19 will we be allowed out to catch it and die in droves in the freed up intensive care beds?

It's always been about this and nothing more. If the NHS had enough resources to cope with the "herd immunity" strategy, that's what would have happened and the deaths would have been part of the process.

The government don't give a shiny shit whether we live or die. They never have. Others will say but of course they care about us, well that's fine if that's what they believe and I respect their belief, but there isn't anything that can convince me they do, why would they?

I'm in the shielded group and to be honest, once things start opening up, I'm back out getting on with life.

@DishingOutDone, I commiserate about having lots of things planned. Already living with the uncertainty of serious chronic illnesses, already fearing time was running out, the fear feels so much more sharp now. Some of the things I can do from home but it all so unsettling. Take care, everyone that’s shielding - everyone else too.

I'm shielding and I share your fears op.

Unlike some, I have no faith in an early vaccine. The quickest we have ever developed a vaccine before this is four years. I think the promise of a safe, effective vaccine in 12 - 18 months is just a pipe dream. Bill Gates, speaking about a potential vaccine actually said that 18 months depends on governments accepting less safety testing than they would normally.

I can't face the thought of not seeing my children for months, possibly years, and my daughter is due to finish university in June. She has stayed there for now to protect me but will be homeless from June so will have to come home.

I just feel deserted by the health service and government.

It delays the spread to gain enough time to get the NHS up to the task of dealing with a vast number of patients. It gets companies used to the idea of having as many people as possible working from home. It doesn't mean all will be normal in July. The virus is endemic, so the NHS Nightingale hospitals will still be needed for some time - probably until there is a vaccine. The tourism industry will be decimated because even after travel is permitted many people will be too fearful of getting the virus to risk going anywhere. The rest of us will just have to risk getting the virus as work. I am a healthy weight and reasonably active, but I don't think about my health often. I am suddenly thinking that I need to get my cardiovascular fitness up so I am better able to cope with this virus when I get it. I also worry about whether it will ever be safe to see shielded family members again.

I have relatives who have been told they would not be given a ventilator of they get this virus. Not because of a shortages but because they would be so unlikely to survive being on a ventilator. It is not a gentle machine.

Suspect that for people in the “extremely vulnerable” group medical advice (not necessarily the same as governments’ advice) could be to SAH until a vaccine is available, which could be 18 months to 2 years. An issue for those in this category (or family members in the same household) who work, many employers are unlikely to be able to keep paying people/jobs open.

@Dozer definitely - I mean I am alone so all my income is from me working. If I can't work, I can't pay my mortgage or bills and I doubt the government will pay it for me!

hearhooves it’d probably be better for your DD to seek housing elsewhere for when she graduates. Living with you that would significantly increase your risk.

Yes, many people will need to make some awful choices .

I think this has always been the plan, whether the shielded group or the vulnerable people advised to take extra precautions. It's not intended to stop them getting ill, it's about not having them all ill at the same time and at the same time as other, previously healthy people, are in need of NHS help.

At some point the advice will have to change and people will need to go back out, at risk of getting seriously ill. The hope will be that by then, enough of the "others" will have already had it that the NHS can cope.

It makes (some) sense from a national perspective but a very difficult ask of the individuals affected. There must be loads of people in the vulnerable category who won't be ready, mentally, to return to work in 12 weeks time. I imagine they'll end up signed off with MH issues.

The flaw in the plan is that if the social distancing is "successful" the number of people who have had it will be low, which is why (imo) there is significant wriggle room in the rules and why those getting all upset with others who they think aren't adhering rigorously enough are misguided. The rules are there to slow the spread, they are not intended to stop the spread, nor is it desirable to do so.

I think I would go back to work, and do what I was doing v v early on which is strict social distancing. Basically I went to work and back, online food shop and no socialising at all. Kept my distance in work, hand washed a lot and if someone complained of being unwell I went and sat in the hallway and worked there

I think all you can do is think breathe and take it a day at a time. They are also learning new things all the time. The 12 weeks to free beds is true, but also to give people a more manageable goal to stay inside. Things are changing every day. I feel for you OP, but you can do it.

And after tbe first 12 weeks they may have some more answers, they may not. There may be time for treatments such as cancer treatments to return.

The second 12 weeks? Better treatment :) closer to a test so more people can get back to work and shield others with potential immunity.

Basically I think there will be different 12 week.blocks!

it’d probably be better for your DD to seek housing elsewhere for when she graduates. Living with you that would significantly increase your risk.

But where, and who would pay? She doesn't have a job because, well, who is employing people now?

It must be so scary for you, but I have to be honest, I do think it will be at the very least another 12 weeks. My husband and I are not officially considered extremely vulnerable, though he has prostate cancer and heart failure and is 75, but we have decided to treat this as if we are in that category, and are in this for the long haul. We are lucky in that his cancer can be monitored by a six monthly blood test. I can't imagine how I would have coped had this happened during his chemotherapy. Hoping all goes well for you.

CatAndHisKit if a large proportion of the population have had it by then it will not spread well so not an overwhelming wave.

@ClientQ That really depends on your job. My job we work in a lab where social distancing is easy and PPE is used, and in a very crowded office where I am about 1 foot away from my nearest colleague. It is pretty crowded and impossible to practice social distancing. I would have to work in the toilet to do that.

There is reportedly one and a half million in the shielded group who are at very high risk of dying if they catch it. The plan can't just be for you all to catch it and die.

Op, I am very much in the same situation as you. Have finished treatment but have had check-up & blood tests postponed. I am working on my fitness, my lung capacity and exercise to fire the bone marrow into recovery.
I cannot bear the idea that my life will be so restricted for the foreseeable future, so am working on my own health to give me a chance & am preparing to assess the risks as information becomes available.
💐to you .

@alloutoffucks yeah I get you - I won't be able to distance at work perfectly, it's a small contact centre so I would be maybe 1m away
It all depends what happens, I'm thinking if there's no help for shielded people, I'll need to pay the bills it's not a great decision to have to make

EU beginning to talk about elderly/vulnerable being subject to isolation until next year.

EU beginning to talk about elderly/vulnerable being subject to isolation until next year.

As with everything in health, the balance of quality of life over risk and protection will come into play. Some elderly or people with vulnerable conditions may choose that this is too detrimental to their QOL. What a decision to have to make. Just awful.

They need long enough time to allow the NHS to be able to cope. Probably the end of April. Then they will start to relax the shut down for some people allowing the virus to spread and for more people to become immune.

As long as the NHS holds up sometime around the end of June some or all of the vulnerable group will be allowed out and they will unfortunately have to hope enough herd immunity has built up in society. I dont think its possible to keep people locked down for 12 months waiting for a vaccine.

Its scary.