Estimates say only 10% of the population have immunity to CV following infection. This isn't enough for herd immunity

[goldpartyhat]

Obviously without testing the general population we won't know for certain, but this doesn't look good for ending/relaxing the lockdown, without another huge spike in infections.

I'm hoping by the end of April antibody testing and active infection and tracing can be starting, so that by June we can have a clearer picture of everything.

What estimates?

Where did you read this?

Yes what estimates? You need to link to whatever document you’re taking your information from.

This isn't from the DM is it?!

As a scientist, can i just say how pleased i am that all the replies to this say, "SOURCE?!"

As you were

Do you mean that only 10% of people who have had Coronavirus gain immunity after recovering, or that it is estimated that 10% of the general population currently has immunity to Coronavirus following exposure (with possibly either no symptoms, or mild symptoms, or severe illness but recovered)

The two situations are very different.

It was on Radio this morning from a University or Warwick academic but I don’t think they said exactly what the estimates were based on / I wasn’t paying proper attention.

Where is this figure from? A remarkable claim - unless I’ve misread the OP

And from ElfDragon’s post - it specifically that only 10% of the UK population had been exposed to Corona. No comment on how many of them were immune from reinfection.

do you mean the 10% of the population estimated to be or have been infected so far? I've seen that number banded around various places?

That's not a surprise is it - 'lockdown' wasn't going to make the virus go away & not enough people have been infected so far to provide much in the way of group immunity so of course there will be more spikes of infection ahead. Each one should get smaller & the aim is to keep the numbers low enough to 'save the NHS' .... or have I completely misunderstood the plan?

*Radio 4

I think it was on BBC news that Patrick Vallance (chief science officer) said that about 10% of Uk population had had coronavirus.

The source was BBC radio. It was a scientist waffling away in the early hours. I'm a bit of an insomniac so turned on the radio and heard this. No idea of the actual source, but he was a scientist of some sort! I fell back asleep soon after this information! Think it was from Cambridge should have listened more 🤣

Vague, as vague can be from vaguesville 😂

It does seem realistic though? Major lockdown with social distancing from fairly early on (as opposed to USA), people isolating and social distancing for several weeks.

Thank you guys for also hearing it on the radio! Otherwise I might have thought I dreamed it.

10% is people who have had the virus, recovered or been asymptomatic, and recovered. They are now immune.

@Laniakea That's my understanding of how this will all pan out.

Germany have released some findings lately - has this come from that?

Tbh I would have thought it was too early to say anything like that so definitively.

the stricter the lockdown the longer subsequent peaks will be ... I'm most worried we're just pushing the problem on to the top of next autumn/winter's flu season. But a) what do I know & b) I think it would be nigh on impossible politically to get people to accept that there's a direct downside to lockdown (beyond the obvious massive public health crisis caused by socio-economic disaster). I still see people saying that stronger lockdown will solve everything.

Oh FFS....

So the message now is that 6million people+ (rough 10% of population) have had Coronavirus?

That’s a far cry from the official figures, and other estimates, which have always been eg ‘and it is thought up to 300,000 others may have been infected in the community’

With an estimated death rate of 1% including asymptomatic, that 60,000 people dead or soon to be dead people

I really hope not!

So if you need what is it around 80percent for herd immunity.

Then how do you "safely expose" 46 million more people to the virus and how does the math figure here with regards to a feasible length of lock down?

You can't safely expose yet
You can't hold lockdown for years

Which means you need to suppress ( lockdown and the strict control ) until you have the drugs to relax suppression

And now long does a vaccine take to produce.. and drugs developed?

covid.joinzoe.com/

This site is very interesting, based on users' own reporting it indicates that up to 5% of people in some areas have the virus.
It seems to reflect what we are hearing on the news with regard to hotspots etc.

Which means you need to suppress ( lockdown and the strict control ) until you have the drugs to relax suppression

I just had a look on google so prepared to be corrected

12 years is the usual time span from invention to shelf

12-18 months for the vaccine

Furlough is currently only for 3 months and that started march ...