How to avoid catching it in the long run

[Therabble]

Just that really. Pretty easy to avoid catching it during lockdown but once normal things start happening again how will we be able to avoid catching it over the next 12 months?

It's important to avoid getting it right now because 1. It will burden the nhs and 2. Your life may be more at risk if there isn't enough hospital equipment and you need critical/intensive care.

But your likelihood of getting really sick from it isn't going to be different if you catch it now or in 6 months time, presumably. Does this mean we will have to avoid seeing grandparents etc for a year/until a vaccine is out?

Whatever we do I think most of us will catch it unfortunately. The government has seen to that by letting it take hold...

I don't know. I wouldn't escape it in my job I have to be reasonably close to people when they talk.

I'd dread getting it in winter.. One just hopes that by winter they will be closer to vaccine or better drugs to treat it with.

I'll be avoiding public transport, but with dc back in school as well, it would be a miracle if we avoided it.

So basically if we (or our parents etc) are destined to die from this virus then we will eventually, it's just a case of when we catch it 😕

I'm so so sad for my kids that their time spent with grandparents will be significantly reduced, and vice versa.

@Therabble

So basically if we (or our parents etc) are destined to die from this virus then we will eventually, it's just a case of when we catch it

Well, I suppose that depends if you believe in 'destiny' or whether you don't. I don't, I believe I have control over my own life. I can't control the virus but I can control my behaviour & try to limit opportunities for the virus to use me as a host.

Not so much about destiny as the suggestion that at least 80% of the population will get it at some point and there are currently no treatments or vaccines!

I think at this stage it is inevitable that most people will have it either with or without symptoms mild or serious. I’m keeping an optimistic attitude even though I’m in the frontline nhs, I’m still more at risk of dying in a car crash in my way to work everyday than dying with this disease. I have had very serious pneumonia and it didn’t beat me so neither will this and life must return to some form of normality at some point or what’s the point in living?

It’s unlikely that either you or your parents would die. Even in the very high risk group, the vast majority survive. Even for the over 90s, half survive.

If a vaccine is a year away, I do think the majority are going to get the virus - I can't see any other way "out". I just hope the majority can deal with it without any medical intervention, and that help is readily available to those that need it.

Short of every country shutting their borders and being entirely self sufficient whilst waiting for China to completely eradicate all their cases, this is how it was always going to go I think.

I don't have any underlying conditions (or none that I know of), and I'm truly sorry for the impact this is and will continue to have on those that do. If I don't catch it before lockdown is relaxed, I'm going to try to be sensible about just what my actual risk is in comparison to being in an RTA or whatever. And sort out a will.

mm, I am in an at risk group and am not going out. Luckily, I gave up work just before this happened, I was recovering from an operation and I am lucky in that I do not need to work, I have health issues and live with DH who has a good job. We are being as careful as we can and I will continue to live in lockdown as best we can until a vaccine is ready, hopefully there will be one. I read yesterday some researchers in Oxford hope they can have one out for this Autumn. I really hope so.

My mental health is very bad at the moment.

Going into lockdown and then back out and then back in is part of the plan though, I think. The idea is to let some more people catch it while the hospitals can cope, then lockdown again then release again, gradually spreading it across the population.

My worry continues to be that keeping the virus at a level just under what the NHS can cope with means a corona only NHS service for the foreseeable. People are not going to have access to normal healthcare for a really long time. This rarely seems to be mentioned.

yes, good point, my B12 injection has been cancelled, so I am now going to suffer with those symptoms too, depending on how long this goes on, it could potentially be lifethreatening.

Hopefully we may find/ create an antiviral drug that helps . Maybe even serum containing the antibodies of those recovered . If it can be developed then a vaccine would doubtless be welcome .

So basically if we (or our parents etc) are destined to die from this virus then we will eventually, it's just a case of when we catch it 😕

If it helps any, this is the age group breakdown of our deaths.

The percentage and raw figures are painful. Especially since some of them have a face I know. But the other side of the coin is the percentage that don't die. It is a moving number. My own group started lower than it stands now. But overall, while it is to be avoided, and it does kill in high numbers, more survive it than do not even in the ultra-elderly group.

I'd stil prefer my mum to stay at home longer term, but I know she won't. So I'm taking what comfort I can in the hope that she'll be in the majority who survive it.

From Il Sole 24 Ore

As much as I am terrified of catching it, I sort of want to get it over with (I have no other major health issues). I hope this test to see if you already have anti-bodies is available soon - I’d like to know if I have already had it.

In terms of getting back to normal, I assume a plan of phases which could go back and forward. Plus to start to recover financially in any way people need to work. I think the world could look very different, work-wise, socially, travel.

My hope is eventually this will be like any other disease or flu in that there is a vaccination which people get, its generally under control but sadly its out there people will get it, tragically some will die. But we don’t need to be so scared of it.

I think your plan may end up being similar to our plan over here. (Italy)

When are schools said to be opening in Italy?

@Judystilldreamsofhorses your life is just as valuable as everyone else's.

So what I’m gleaning from this thread is that it is probably better to get it sooner than later when we start opening back up again and hope that it’s not too severe. Re schools my son is at a boarding school with a large amount of international students so I would imagine there will be a lot of staff off sick during that time when they reopen.

In fact life won’t be the same for along time as there will be large swathes of people getting the virus and off sick leaving problems with existing staff. I don’t think the exit has been thought through at all disregarding the lack of people income. I can’t see also how we can open up to be shut down again are we all going back on UC and furlough ? So many questions

I'm obese and have asthma, diabetes, hypertension and chronic liver disease. DH (also overweight and diabetic) and I could potentially work from home for a long time, it's not officially allowed in our workplace but they're being incredibly understanding, and both our jobs can absolutely be done from home. But once the schools reopen, there's no point, because there will be no meaningful social distancing in a primary school of 600 pupils. I'm not sure how to handle it.

The assumption that almost everyone will end up catching it is terrifying

Population 70 million. 80% catch it. 15% need hospital treatment and 5% need intensive care for on average 2 weeks

That nearly 3 million people needing an intensive care bed because of this virus

We normally have around 4000 such beds and the number of nurses to cope

Quadrupling beds and significantly lowering nursing standards it would still take years to get those 3 million people through the virus and hospital treatment if we want to ensure that everyone who medically should get ITU to actually get it

Or we decide to accept a death rate of around 5% and not put any covid patients into intensive care

Or an even higher death rate if we decide not to treat those who would be seen as requiring hospitalisation , because I doubt we have the normal hospital beds to see 9 million people in hospital in a short space of time.

The death rate is only 1% and less for the young and fit if we can treat them

So suppression not herd immunity is the only viable strategy until viable treatment is available

Utterly- similar here. Im obese and asthmatic and cant imagine keeping my kids in for 2 years...

But midge suppression could take 2 yeara they wont do that :( Does that mean at some point they'll accept the fatalities. Thats why Im scared.

I'll stick with the hand washing and I can't imagine using public transport anytime this year. My DH wants to get masks when there are enough after care workers. I'm eating really well but need to get fitter. I also want to put off getting it for as long as possible so treatment is better. There was an article in the Telegraph this morning saying that doctors are already learning to use less invasive methods the ventilators - presumably that's what was done with Boris.

The common cold is a coronavirus. It's very difficult to avoid catching it in the long run. Most of us will. I think the best defence is to be as healthy as you can, and wait until the NHS isn't overwhelmed/a cure or vaccine is found.

That's why we're being allowed out some, but not loads, and exercise is being stressed as an essential reason to go outdoors. They want some of us to catch it, a few at a time, steadily, to gain immunity, and lots of us to stave it off for a while.

Suppression took 11 weeks in wuhan, not years

Yes it will require constant activity to keep it suppressed. Singapore just discovered how daft it is not to fully quarentine new arrivals from abroad. But we can look and learn