Is there an exit strategy that would make everyone happy? I don't think its possible is it?

[Bubblesbubblesmybubbles]

Just discussing this with dp and we couldnt see a solution....

So you have a few groups of people in the UK with entirely opposing needs, i can't see how there can be an 'out' which makes everyone happy but everyone does seem to agree we can't stay locked down until a vaccine comes along

They put health first and the economy is hit harder, people struggle to feed families, MH becomes a massive issue

They let people come out of lockdown gradually (hyperthetically say May) and make social distancing the norm but then what about those who are highly vulnerable?

Schools go back too soon and teachers feel vulnerable, schools don't go back and people have no ability to work

Is there an option everyone can even accept, not necessarily be happy with but accept?

It seems impossible...

There definitely isnt a simple solution. No matter what someone is at risk!

I have NO opinion on what the right option is as I can see all arguments. I do agree lockdown until a vaccine is finished is impossible though.

Paper here
pbs.twimg.com/media/EVJRsEGUYAE9qBN?format=jpg&name=large

According to Richard Horton,we need to manage things so that R is less than 1. In other words, social distancing levels need to be strict enough so that on average, each infected person is infecting less than 1 other person. Otherwise we risk getting exponential deaths again.

It also remains unclear whether people will get this infection more than once, and if so after what interval. Also, it is being discussed whether,after an apparent recovery, the virus might re-activate and cause more infectious disease,

Things are a lot less complicated at the moment in our family than they will be when the children go back to school.

Very true.

At the moment-things are pretty clear and we know that we need to stay in unless we’re going to work, essential shopping etc yet there are still tonnes of questions on here with people asking if they can do x,y or z, and the answer is always NO.

When things start to open up and change a bit, people’s situations are going to be extremely complicated and the questions are going be endless.

Surely it’s a no brainier.
We take the financial hit. And help keep more people alive?
You can rebuild an economy, you cannot reincarnate dead people...

I'm wondering in adult social care and pretty sure I have a heart problem - I'd had thrombosis and any problems specific to Vienna in my leg ruled out just before 6shut down. One of my legs swells and is starting to become painful. I have just enough medical training through my job (abroad, studied a very locally specific combination of medicine, nursing, social work and education) to be pretty sure it's a symptom of heart failure.

What am I supposed to do. Every bigger is off sick and I work with vulnerable people I can't just abandon. I'm doing 24 hour shifts. Healthy younger colleagues are skivving. I have school aged children of my own but don't have the luxury of wrapping myself in cotton wool because somebody has to look after out 14 (currently very intense and demanding for obvious reasons) residents.

I think schools will need back to get everybody back to work, but social distancing will be possible then so this can not be rushed. It’s not really just about the teachers being vulnerable, when kids go back we will have to accept that this will spread as the children will mix with others and bring it home to parents who may be vulnerable and will also be working them selves and then spread it on.

Working not wondering, though I do both...

Veins not Vienna...

@PanicAtTheDiscLo I dont disagree, lives are the priority of course.....but people are worried about MH spiralling so that could lead to deaths in another way. People are worried about feeding themselves. Other NHS services are being left so lives are being lost there. Its not clear cut is what I'm trying to say. I am personally on maternity in a job I'm confident will remain so i personally have no issue with lockdown lasting as long as is needed but I'm aware I'm incredibly lucky

@herecomesthesun thats really interesting!

Be interesting to see what happens with contact tracing. Seems a logical solution but i saw a thread where people were shocked anyone would give up that information (clearly i lead a dull life as i have nothing I care about them knowing)

@anothernotherone maybe no more vienna trips for you

@anothernotherone all jokes aside, thank you for putting yourself at risk to help others

panicatthedisco it’s not that simple though. It’s easy to say lives must be saved at all costs, but do we really mean at all costs? The cost of children’s education, people’s mental health, jobs, businesses, the economy.....remember that for 80% of people this is a mild illness - the deaths seem like huge numbers but are in fact a tiny minority.

I don’t know the answer!!!

Bubblesbubblesmybubbles for some reason I've never even been to Vienna despite being vaguely in that area of Italy at least y or 7 times. I didn't like Venice... Is Vienna worth a visit?

I don't want thanks I want more money 😉 Actually I want not to be at risk and to be able to follow up with my GP in the normal way and find out what's wrong with me. I also want precious people to stop phoning in sick when they aren't, being s Ares is a crap excuse...

I don't think anything non essential should reopen earlier than planned because of the chain reaction.

If schools reopen my 3 children are exposed to over two thousand individuals, each of whom are exposed to their own families, each of whom is exposed to work colleagues and shop staff.

My children bring all those germs to me. I bring them to our residents with heart and lung diseases and other underlying conditions.

Each of my 8 colleagues brings in a similar training network of contacts.

I'm exposed to tens of thousands of people via colleagues' contacts, as are the residents.

At least 3 residents would be highly likely to die if they caught it.

People seem to be refusing to think about the gargantuan networks of transmission pathways opened up by schools.

Surely the best exit strategy is the safest one? Not the one that makes people happy.

@anothernotherone I haven't been either but I would love to visit the christmas markets there.

I agree with you though, its such a complex matter to consider the transmissions pathways. I come into contact with, i suspect, around 150 people a day when at work (although my job has changed its way of working for now). My toddler is at nursery under normal circumstances, partner is a key worker......we would be terrible for transmission

@Lookingforwardtomyeastereggs sorry it wasn't a well worded question. I mean everyones opinion on "safety" comes from their own perspective and they literally cannot meet everyones needs from those with MH issues who are genuinely already struggling to those being sheilded and everyone in between (i have friends with severe MH issues who are really struggling and MIL is shielded, hence i can see issues with all answers/exit strategys)

I don’t know. I already know one lockdown suicide and I have a few friends I’m really worried about.

I also don’t know what all this is going to mean for us in the long run economically. Sunak said this would all have to be paid back at some point-err, how?! More austerity will kill people too, and mean much worse care for the elderly/vulnerable

A colleague of my DH's died of covid-19 today.

I would imagine the government is pretty scared at the moment. They eventually did the right thing in locking down, but were heavily criticised for leaving it so late and appearing to ignore the WHO guidelines. Now, they have to come up with an exit strategy that is sensible, one that doesn’t kill thousands unnecessarily. It might mean holding their nerve and playing the long game despite further criticism. If they end lockdown too soon, that will be a nightmare as well. Having the PM so unwell is not going to be helping matters.

Who knows what the answer is?

Perhaps ask the population to still take hand hygiene more seriously by installing hand washing facilities in more places and to practice social distancing whilst slowly getting society back to normal? Ask the vulnerable to continue to self isolate as much as possible and to ask guests to wash their hands when they visit

Maybe send schools back after may half term? Year 9 and 10 for two weeks followed by year 7 and 8. For primary schools maybe have half the class in the AM and the other for the PM for a few weeks before returning full time. Ensure all children wash their hands when they arrive at school, after break/lunch and before they go home. I’m sure there’s plenty of substitute teachers that could pick up where vulnerable teachers can’t work

Ask the general office population to work from home where possible, but to return to the office if there is a genuine business reason they need to be there (and not just because the boss likes to see bums on seats). Ask them to wash their hands as soon as possible when arriving at the place of work and regularly throughout the day. Allow those in the trade industry to return. Maybe instal Hand washing facilities outside train stations and an antibacterial station at bus stops? Like how Nandos have sinks in the restaurant near the tables.

Open small retail stores for a few weeks before opening the larger ones and ask that the stores encourage social distancing and hand hygiene, maybe by installing hand sanitisers outside some of the shops? Likewise with pubs and restaurants

I just don’t know. I find the unknown so difficult to deal with and feel like like will never be the same again after

I would release all the under 60s in good health to be honest. Very small numbers of that age group will be admitted to hospital. Then a gradual release of everyone else with the extremely vulnerable last and hopefully by then best treatment will be decided, if not a vaccine.

If this goes on much longer the resulting deaths from ensuing poverty and more austerity will be far higher.

Ah, the agony of choice.

Because let’s be honest, naturally & ordinarily, the virus would do its thing, kill off the old & vulnerable (who wouldn’t be fit enough to hunt & gather & physically contribute to society anyway, generally) and nature would naturally do its thing.

But, because of human progress, sick/vulnerable people being kept alive when in simpler times they couldn’t be, the old wouldn’t be as old because they would have already died naturally.

Well, looks like nature is biting us back in the arse. Can keep a lid on the pot for so long....

What I’m saying is the old & vulnerable can count themselves lucky where we are living in an age when they can largely defy nature & be here at all.

If they have to lock themselves away whilst we develop some way of rolling back the forces of nature once more, or we develop herd immunity, seems like a reasonable deal to me all in all.

Id be lifting lockdown after this wave for anybody fit & healthy under retirement age.

I’m sure there’s plenty of substitute teachers that could pick up where vulnerable teachers can’t work

There wasn’t a supply teacher to be found in my LEA the week before the schools closed! So many teachers were on the vulnerable list and couldn’t come in-the agencies simply had nobody left. They said they had a lot on their books who had health issues themselves as well which was possibly why they weren’t teaching in perm positions themselves.

I don’t think schools can safely reopen until people on the vulnerable list can return to work.

@Lookingforwardtomyeastereggs sorry it wasn't a well worded question. I mean everyones opinion on "safety" comes from their own perspective and they literally cannot meet everyones needs from those with MH issues who are genuinely already struggling to those being sheilded and everyone in between (i have friends with severe MH issues who are really struggling and MIL is shielded, hence i can see issues with all answers/exit strategys)

Absolutely, sorry I didn't mean to sound snippy! I know what I'd quite like to happen first but I can't imagine it will be what actually happens.

We've all got different needs/priorities. It's really difficult to imagine how it's all going to work.