Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

What if there is essentially no immunity?

19 replies

MarathonMo · 09/04/2020 13:41

NB: the below.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-09/coronavirus-may-reactivate-in-cured-patients-korean-cdc-says

For some viruses there is no or very limited immunity post infection. Could this be the case with this Corona virus?

OP posts:
GrumpyHoonMain · 09/04/2020 13:43

In that case the Tories will be unelectable next term

Glaceon · 09/04/2020 13:44

This is my worry.ive experienced it when pregnant with the winter vomiting bugs.

I got one 4 times when I was pregnant. I was so poorly each time. Everyone else only got it once. I just didnt get any immunity that year whatsoever.

So I keep wondering what if this is like that.

knittingaddict · 09/04/2020 13:44

In that case the Tories will be unelectable next term

That's where your mind went?

Politics will be the least of our worries.

MRex · 09/04/2020 13:52

Is @GrumpyHoonMain maybe a bot putting out automated messages?

We won't know for a while. I question some views on reinfection because we know tests from China are giving false positives; that could be the case with other coronavirus tests too - so it could mean cases where people are pronounced as reinfected are actually a first infection of a different but similar strain. We can at least hope that people would get a less severe illness even if immunity degrades over time.

MarathonMo · 09/04/2020 13:56

People who have tested positive for the virus have later taken an antibody/immunity test that has proved negative.

This may well be due to the fact the antibody/immunity test is as yet unreliable or they had a false positive in the first place.

Time will tell I guess.

OP posts:
Cornettoninja · 09/04/2020 14:01

If that was the case we adapt. Vaccines are a very modern development and this is the first period in history we haven’t lived with the threat of something like polio, TB, rubella as a constant background to life.

Testing will become more streamlined and there will be restrictions put on those in contact or infected (much like chicken pox). I believe that the NHS would have to have a new speciality to deal with corona patients (not to doom monger but we have very little idea what the long term effects are).

If we’re fortunate a vaccine will be developed and distributed quickly, although global scales quickly translate to months/years.

Life will go on, it’ll be different because how could it not be now, but it will.

For those who remember, life was very different before 9/11 but we’re all still here and (mostly) happy.

EmMac7 · 09/04/2020 14:05

There seems to be increasing evidence that mild cases do not generate lasting immunity. Severe cases seem to, though for how long we won’t know for some time.

donquixotedelamancha · 09/04/2020 14:08

(The following is a best guess from a science background and some reading- IANA epidemiologist)

It won't be apocalyptic.

Lots of coronaviruses exist and lots of similar viruses mutate so that immunity doesn't last long. There are other flus out there which are probably as deadly.

The problem with Covid 19 is the newness- everyone can get it. Once everyone has had
it and there is some immunity in the population it won't spread anywhere near as fast. It may become like other bad flus where the vulnerable need vaccination each year and thousands still for each year.

The problem is getting to that point might take hundreds of thousands dead in the UK alone.

We really better hope for an effective treatment or vaccine.

user1495884620 · 09/04/2020 14:09

In what way was life very different before 9/11?

Reallybadidea · 09/04/2020 14:12

There seems to be increasing evidence that mild cases do not generate lasting immunity. Severe cases seem to, though for how long we won’t know for some time.

That's interesting. Can you share any sources for that please? Smile

RaininSummer · 09/04/2020 14:37

It's hardly the Tories' fault if there is pandemic wiping out humanity now it it?

DoubleTweenQueen · 09/04/2020 14:38

All studies are preliminary and findings limited - re antibodies. That will be ongoing.

Along with that, there is every effort being put into:

  1. Identifying a suitable specific and stable antigen to which a vaccine can be effectively targeted

  2. Adjuvant technology, which directs and enhances the immune response to a specific antigen in an holistic sense (cellular - killer cells - & humoral - antibody - response most useful?)

  3. Monitoring the natural immune response in large numbers of Covid19 patients to determine what sort of response was helpful/not helpful, whether memory/immunity is established and how long-lasting - lots of statistics for meaningful data after the event

  4. Monitoring drugs already licenced for clinical use, or very close to licence, for focussing potentially on fighting the virus or treating the different difficult symptoms experienced specifically by those that are ill

  5. Screening archive drug libraries for a novel molecule with potential against the virus/and or the disease symptoms - may be related to a licenced drug, but not gone through the trials and approval system - longer term.

  6. Designing drugs specific to SARS- Cov-2, to hit the life-cycle - much longer term - as has been done for HIV etc.

All of these efforts, and more are being done right now

Ellapaella · 09/04/2020 14:38

@EmMac7 can I ask where you have found that evidence? Sounds interesting and I'd like to read more about that theory.

Cornettoninja · 09/04/2020 14:44

@user1495884620, international travel is the obvious one. There weren’t half the restrictions on what you could carry on to a plane. My first passport (in the mid-90’s) was a temporary cardboard one issued by the post office.

We didn’t have the whole rhetoric surrounding terrorism and islamaphobia wasn’t in most people’s lexicon.

There was a fundamental shift in culture which saw people fearful in a way that they just weren’t before. You get a taste of it every time there’s another terror attack but it’s a fraction of what 9/11 caused.

My point being it was a historic event that changed the public and political mood massively.

backatschool · 09/04/2020 15:24

I've also seen from two sources that mild cases may not provide immunity. Which screws up the entire herd immunity theory. I'm following this closely as I live in Amsterdam and the Dutch are openly following the herd immunity strategy and doing studies on it. Posting two links now....

backatschool · 09/04/2020 15:25

I've also seen from two sources that mild cases may not provide immunity. Which screws up the entire herd immunity theory. I'm following this closely as I live in Amsterdam and the Dutch are openly following the herd immunity strategy and doing studies on it. Posting two links now....

backatschool · 09/04/2020 15:25

LIVEBLOG 17:55
MILD CORONA COMPLAINTS SEEM TO YIELD FEWER ANTIBODIES. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

People who develop mild complaints after being infected with the coronavirus seem to produce fewer antibodies. That said Jaap van Dissel, head of infectious disease control at RIVM (National Institute of Public Health and Environment), this morning in the House of Representatives. The reverse of that statement is also true. "The more severe the infection, the more antibodies we see," said Van Dissel. This is evident from research by Erasmus MC (Medical Centre).

nos.nl/liveblog/2329768-aantal-ic-patienten-voor-het-eerst-afgenomen-weken-cel-voor-coronahoesters.html

The statements raise many questions.

17:55
MILD CORONA COMPLAINTS SEEM TO YIELD FEWER ANTIBODIES. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

Francien Yntema and Rinke van den Brink

Editors Science and Healthcare

People who develop mild complaints after being infected with the coronavirus seem to produce fewer antibodies. It was one of the messages from Jaap van Dissel, the head of infectious disease control at the RIVM (National Institute of Public Health and Environment), during a briefing by MPs. The reverse of that statement is also true. "The more severe the infection, the more antibodies we see," said Van Dissel.

He bases this on research by Marion Koopmans, professor of virology and head of the virology department at Erasmus MC (Medical Centre).

Here is Van DIssel’s statement:
Milder symptoms mean fewer antibodies which means more complex to interpret later on if they developed immunity or not. Producing antibodies is only a part of the immune response. We can also do this with cell activation. This is research currently done by the RIVM.

Van Dissel's statements raise many questions. Do people with mild complaints not build up immunity? Do they get off just as well with a possible second infection, or can they become seriously ill? And what does this mean for the spread of the coronavirus?

Uncertainty about group immunity
"This immediately means that it will soon be complex to assess whether someone who has only had mild complaints has also built up immunity," said Van Dissel during the briefing. Afterward he answered to press questions that it is still unclear whether people can become ill again and infect others.

"I think it is too early for hard conclusions, but of course this is not what we want to hear," says Marjolein van Egmond, professor of immunology at Amsterdam UMC (University Medical Centre). "The hope was that everyone who comes into contact with the virus produces large amounts of antibodies, thereby becomes immune and thus contributes to the group immunity. There is now more uncertainty about the construction of that group immunity."

"The standard method for determining whether someone is immune is to measure antibodies," continues Van Egmond. "Those antibodies are produced by the so-called learned immune system. That is the part of the immune system that continuously learns and also produces antibodies after you have been given a vaccine."

Learned vs.innate immune system
But antibodies don't tell the whole story. In addition to the learned immune system - which records information about every pathogen someone comes into contact with - everyone has an innate immune system. "That system consists of all kinds of cells that do not learn anything and always react the same to pathogens," says Van Egmond.

She thinks that the innate immune system plays an important role in people with mild complaints. "Perhaps the innate immune system in this group of patients clears the virus particles so quickly that the acquired immune system has not become very active and has therefore produced few antibodies." The learned immune system can also produce immune cells itself. "Maybe that happened, but you can't measure that with an antibody test. Therefore, further research is needed."

RIVM is now conducting further research to see whether people with minor complaints still build up immunity. That's because the body's number of defense cells is increasing or their activity is getting stronger, Van Dissel said.

Worse illness
What makes some people develop only mild complaints and others get very sick from the coronavirus? In addition to factors such as age and underlying conditions, the amount of virus particles also seems to play a role.

"It is plausible that there is a relationship between the dose of virus particles you ingest and the reaction to it," says virologist Koopmans. "That you get sick faster and more seriously if you ingest more virus particles at the same time." Koopmans bases itself on research into SARS, where this relationship has been demonstrated. That virus, which had a major outbreak in 2002 and 2003, is very similar to the current coronavirus.

Immunologist Van Egmond also thinks it works like this, but like Koopmans, she emphasises that it has not yet been proven with this virus. "In principle you can get sick from one virus particle. But research shows that if you infect a group of mice with a small amount of influenza virus and another group with a lot of virus particles, the latter mice become much sicker. I expect that this also applies to SARSCoV2 . " According to Van Egmond, that could explain why doctors and nurses sometimes get very ill.

Mariet Feltkamp, a virologist at the LUMC (Leiden University Medical Centre), is convinced: "Every medical virologist will agree that there is a connection between the degree of exposure, disease, and immunity. I also think that it is better to be infected by a few virus particles that are transported via a supermarket trolley onto your hands, then through droplets of liquid in a two-hour church service. "

nos.nl/artikel/2329846-milde-coronaklachten-lijken-minder-antistoffen-op-te-leveren-wat-betekent-dat.html

jasjas1973 · 09/04/2020 15:47

A vaccine is probably years away, so we will eventually have to isolate the vulnerable or accept their early demise, this lockdown cannot continue for more than 2 or 3 months.

I am hoping that treatments emerge that make CV-19 a manageable condition for the vulnerable rather than ICU or death.

New posts on this thread. Refresh page