Jeremy Vine today "1% of people with coronavirus will die"

[ChicChicChicChiclana]

Where did he get this figure from?

The death rate probably is around 0.1-0.2% for the under 40s who are in good enough health to be working in a demanding job soshesaid.

But about 2.5% of the UK population is over 80. About 1% are over 90. That’s what’s driving the 1% across the whole population. Remember that your odds of dying if you contract Covid-19 (assuming a functioning health system) are roughly the same as your odds would have been for dying in the coming year.

I think the 1% is without mitigation measures. Neil Ferguson gave the figure of 500,000 deaths without mitigation. With significant measures we are under at the moment we will hopefully have a lot, lot less.

Remember that your odds of dying if you contract Covid-19 (assuming a functioning health system) are roughly the same as your odds would have been for dying in the coming year.

If that’s the case, the other, more sobering, way of looking at that is to say your twice as likely to die this year as a result of the added risk of CV.

Prof Witty said in one of the very first public briefing thingies that 80% of UK population infected and 1% of those will die.

Lockdown cant stop its spread, it can only slow it down, flatten the curve and alk that jazz.

All it takes is one fresh traveller to fly into the UK and off we go again. That's just one example

"No one knows... 1% is a crude estimate based figures available. There’s little point trying to over-analyse."

I completely agree with this ^. So I think it's wrong for a broadcaster on BBC Radio 2 to glibly state it as though it is fact.

I'm not sure he was staring glibly. Usually he takes some quote about a situation, often from the "experts", and announces that as a starting point.

Yesterday he just said, in the middle of a sentence, something like "as we know 1% of people with coronavirus will die from it". He didn't reference anyone or anything, so although "glibly" might not be exactly the correct word, he just casually mentioned it as though it was a given. Hence, I started this thread hoping for some insight or clarification from people who have followed the stats more closely than me.