Are we being hit as bad as everyone thought or have we got it under control?

[stressedmum95]

Sorry for the really stupid question (and I know it is a stupid question) but every report I read seems to tell me something different 😕

Is it true that social distancing is working and we are starting to see the curve flatten while still having plenty icu beds

Or

We are due to over take Italy with the worst death toll in 24 hours, follow a much worse trajectory and won't hit peak for another 10 days and we will have bodies in make shift morgues to cope with demand.

I know nobody can give me a definite answer but there's a lot of bright people on here that seem to be really good at reading all the graphs. Are we totally fucked or are we keeping on top of it the best we can hope?

We're just about coping at the moment as a third of deaths are not being recorded or go to hospital

I imagine once we hit the peak it will be very bad

It's still to early to tell.

It’s a waiting game

I think it's both?

We are (potentially) starting to see the impact of the social distancing, but because hospital admissions and deaths lag up to several weeks they are still going to be increasing... Possibly to the point that our death rate becomes worse than Italy, but we don't know for sure yet how bad it will get.

The good thing is the Nightingale hospital is open and ready to receive patients - and I believe social distancing has given time for this to be ready.

I do think it's a waiting game but if we have enough beds and staff hopefully it won't be as bad as we thought.

Ah right, I'm surprised it's still too early to tell I obviously know we're only a few weeks in and understand it'll be next year probably before a vaccine is ready but so many reports I've seen are very firm about the way things are going (but also contradicting other reports ) that I thought someone might have an answer.

In short I'm thinking I need to stop obsessing so much about how things are going then.

It's bloody awful. I was really hoping by now there would start to be drop in cases.

I know testing rates have varied so that will skew the figures but thete ust seems no end to this nightmare.

Do you think all the new cases still from before lockdown started or are they infections caught since then?

The advantage over Italy is we have had time to prepare. Turn operating theatres into COVID units. Build the Nightingale hospitals. Italy didn’t have this time.

Did people die in Italy because of the lack of hospital space? Tbh i've had to turn away from reading too much as it does my head in

It’s about on track with what I expected having followed this since January. Cases should start falling quite significantly next week then deaths 3 weeks after that. Remember there’s a lag at each stage - approx 15 days from catching to seeming hospital help and therefore a test, then generally another 10 -14 days to die unless already very frail.

I think I need to step away from reading too much.
I'm quite gullible and believe what I read must be true, then get totally confused when I read another report 10 mins later contradicting the first one! I think it was the "Schools opening after Easter" that tipped me over the edge today though. I know 100% that couldn't be right.

This was posted on the worried about corona virus 36 thread.

I take no credit for its creation.

So will the deaths continue to be scary high for quite a few weeks to come then?

@Blankscreen Italy had to introduce criteria to enter critical care. Hospitals ran out of ventilators. They had people on vet ventilators. They didn’t have time to prepare. They are already on 17.5k deaths in hospital (that doesn’t include those who died in the community who just didn’t go to hospital as they felt there was no point). Their data helped our modellers and so lockdown came in when it did. Italy’s tragedy will have helped save lives in other countries.

stressedmum95 it's not just you. We really are swamped with inaccurate information, guesses, estimates and so on.

Main thing for now I suppose is that we have a stream of sick people not a tidal wave.

Even the genuine experts can't know for sure how this will go so just keep yourself safe and don't let yourself spend all your time reading the reports as that will make you crazy.

Thanks strawberry that is helpful.

Looking at that chart though the UK's numbers are worse than Italy.

The NHS that existed prior to this pandemic is overwhelmed and not coping, the measures that the government have taken to transform the NHS with new hospitals and morgues are coping. Last night over 40 patients were in the new hospital, I’m sure it’s over 100 by now.

I’m sure the daily death numbers will horrify us, I’m sure that this will come back next winter of a vaccine isn’t made in the meantime.

This was posted on the worried about corona virus 36 thread.

I read a piece about this yesterday. The start dates are arbitrary and bear no correlation to the first case or the first death to the chart is essentially meaningless. When you adjust to include a proper correlation, the figures tell you an entirely different thing.

@Sparklingplasters they were working on a model of 20 patients an hour coming into the Nightingale at its peak.

@MintyMabel do you have the different chart to share at all? I'd be interested to see it.

@Bercows

I’m trying to find where I saw it. I went down a twitter rabbit hole yesterday and can’t remember the source. If I find it I’ll post it.

I've been using reddit for data; this comparison is great. It is on the subreddit coronavirusUK

i.redd.it/tw9iv5419mr41.png

@MaryBerrysBomberJacket where is that data taken from because France’s death toll is over 10.5k according to WHO.

Almost all of the scientists who model the graphs and projections use the 10 deaths date as the starting point for comparisons. It's not an arbitrary number. I don't know why but it was explained by the very informative and clever people on the graphs thread as to why it's so.

You can also find tracking for the countries from the first death. The end result comparisons are the same- that the UK's final toll will probably be higher.

Italy at its worst did indeed triage for intensive care and ventilators. Like the UK is doing. Veterinary ventilators were offered in Italy by the national veterinary association but I can't see anywhere they were used. The only article I can see says the idea was immediately rejected as inappropriate.

The user who produces the table each day takes it from Worldometers but they didn't include the extra French carehome/community deaths as other countries are not. They update the table every day in the subreddit below
www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/fx8zjr/8th_april_uks_daily_death_toll_compared_with/