The exit plan and schools.

[NeverGuessWho]

I know this whole thread will be hearsay, but I’m just interested in hearing people’s opinions of where schools are likely to fit in to the exit plan?

A friend thinks they will be opened early on, as this will free up more people to work, and hence enable furloughed workers to return to work. This will crucially save money.

IMHO, schools will be one of the last restrictions to be lifted. Once schools are opened, there will effectively be multiple mass gatherings in every town and city, all at the same time. Surely this will result in a surge of cases of the virus.

Unless of course, they pursue the antibodies/certified passport route?

What do people think?

Maybe an additional year at nursery.

Totally unworkable for nurseries who do not have the space or staff to accommodate a group of five year olds.

Children won’t stop being born or their parents needing to go back to work. It just wouldn’t be a workable solution

@Appuskidu

Absolutely.

@hammeringinmyhead agreed. There was a report that women and the low paid are being disproportionately impacted by job losses/furlough (better paid jobs being able to wfh easier).

I have number of female friends who have chosen to be furloughed (where it has been offered by firms) as they can’t work without childcare, and their partners earn more, really worries me. My concern is they will be first to lose their jobs if and when their are job cuts. Particularly friends who aren’t married so have no protection going forward if things go wrong.

As soon as we go back to school, social distancing ends, so the country has to be ready for that. In the meantime remote teaching is the best we can do and we’re doing it.

I don’t think social distancing is all or nothing though, is it? There are degrees of contact - eg you could reopen schools but keep the majority of workplaces closed, which reduces contact in work, large shops and while commuting. Takeaways open but not eat-in, etc etc.

Remember the strategy (as far as it’s been explained) is not about eliminating the virus, it’s about managing spread after this peak, my slowly removing the lid.

I don’t think social distancing is all or nothing though

It’s the message it sends out though.

If it’s ok for 600 parents to bring their children to primary school-streaming Shoulder to shoulder down the road and in queues of cars, 30 children sitting together on the carpet or tables for 6 hours a day, coughing into each other’s lunchbox, ear to ear in corridors.... if secondary school children are jam packed in buses, trains and coaches-thousands clambering along corridors and into classrooms-people will see that as being fine.

If kids are 50 to a bus all the way home, there’s no reason why they can’t go to the park with those people, go to their house, go to the shop together etc

If hundreds of parents are waiting together in the playground to take/collect children-they’ll be walking along the road with them as it’s inevitable. If it’s fine to wait outside a classroom with those people, why not go to their house for coffee?

Social distancing will end when schools open-unless they are opened like other countries are doing, with

Regular testing
Masks for all
Much reduced numbers (10 to a classroom made for 30) so that distancing can be enabled.

@StrawberryBlondeStar completely agree. I am on furlough and cannot return to work until my two sons nursery is safe to reopen, I have no alternative childcare. My bosses are already worrying about being able to keep the business afloat, I am extremely anxious I will lose my job. It’s a very worrying time.

Anyone sighting opening schools and maintaining social distance is just an idiot. Most of my school come by bus. They cannot be 2m apart. They cannot get to the class being 2m apart. I cannot have them in my room 2m apart. They will do this because it better for economy and teachers will die. It’s a bit insulting that articles keep stating kids don’t generally get it bad when behind every secondary is 200 odd staff of all ages. Teacher bash all you want but it is simply sacrificing us for the economy. You will end up with loads of staff off ill again then staffing levels get too low. Tiring to read all of these people saying teaches just want a long holiday- you really have NO idea. Anyone who thinks their kids will be safe in school is kidding themselves.

I’m a teacher. And l think that years will be tested. I know this will cause a log jam in the system, but the government will have to suck it up, and pay for extra teachers and school accommodation.

If we go back in September, my year 10 who will be then 11 will have missed the first part of their controlled assessment. This is something that is meant to last from June to March.As well as a term of missing lessons.

My y13, will miss the first part of their controlled assessment.

Y11 into 12 will have missed most of the last term of revision in Year 11. The jump from Y11 to 12 is huge, and they don’t have a starting block behind them.

Current y9 going into 10 will have missed a term of building blocks.

Etc etc.

And there is no guarantee that schools won’t close again. So what else can they do?

I’d like to see all the people pushing for an early return take over the teachers role

Bet they wouldn’t like being in a Petri dish of germs.

Anyone who thinks their kids will be safe in school is kidding themselves

Absolutely-especially if you read that schoolsweek article about restricting cleaning supplies to schools and not offering any sort of PPE on the other thread!

Anyone who thinks their kids will be safe in school is kidding themselves

Absolutely-especially if you read that schoolsweek article about restricting cleaning supplies to schools and not offering any sort of PPE on the other thread!

Kids may well but at a reduced risk. Who knows? They aren't risk free as we know.

Microbiologist are saying the young deaths have been the biggest surprise for then.

I don't know any parent who would want to play that lottery.

I don’t think social distancing is all or nothing though, is it? There are degrees of contact - eg you could reopen schools but keep the majority of workplaces closed, which reduces contact in work, large shops and while commuting. Takeaways open but not eat-in, etc etc.

Consider that teachers will not be able to truly enforce social distancing at school. Between the buses; break times; canteen sizes; classrooms and nature of children themselves, it is frankly impossible. The best we could hope to do would be try to maintain as good hygiene as possible.

Now all those millions of children take it home, to their parents who HAVE been social distancing in the restaurants or at work or using take-always etc

What I’m saying is, that it doesn’t matter how careful the adult population is being as far as social distancing is concerned...children once back at school are going to bring the virus home anyway.

And that’s why social distancing ends. By default.

There is no 'safe' -everyday life is full of dangers 'twere ever thus. The human race would have died out long ago if everyone cowered terrified of their own shadow.
Yes schools are full of germs -that's never gonna change. But those who are hysterically insisting their kids won't go back are doing their children no favours. A fearful life life is no life. I will happily go back as soon as I am allowed and will rejoice to see the kids of parents with commune sense. By all means keep the other lot at home, but don't jeopardise the mental health and prospects of the majority for the sake of a hysterical minority.

I have quoted this already on one of the many other threads suggesting schools should go back ASAP, but this is what Neil Ferguson thinks about that ‘schools closing is a waste of time’ piece...

Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, worked on the scientific modelling that the current government advice is based on. He says the Lancet research fails to take into account the impact that school closure can have alongside other lockdown measures."When combined with intense social distancing it plays an important role in severing remaining contacts between households and thus ensuring transmission declines," he said.

Suggesting its role in cutting contact between people/households is v important.

I completely agree with you DB and hope that happens too x

My posts are about if that doesn’t happen. I hope the gov manages to make a summer return safe for as many as possible.

Has anyone said here that it’s a ‘waste of time’? Absolutely essential in a lockdown/suppression scenario as we find ourselves currently. The impact may be relatively small compared to other measures but very important particularly given the interconnectedness of our lives. But that’s about the present, not about the exit plan.

The question is, as we move out of the suppression scenario - where to quite NF we are no longer trying to ‘sever remaining contacts between households’ - and what point schools reopen.

Social distancing measures will lift slowly. The question is in what order that happens, and where the greater degree of social mixing vs lower levels actually takes place. Given the relatively small impact on spreads/deaths according to SAGE, plus the potential for a break over the summer holidays for English (and Welsh?) schools, schools may be a sensible place to start compared to workplaces, hospitality and leisure, commuting etc where populations moving through are less standardised (ie you only go to one school; a restaurant will have people from a dozen schools plus a hundred workplaces going through it.) Therefore making contact tracing / isolation more straightforward.

The SAGE papers are well worth a read if you haven’t already.

I have not seen anyone, including NF, arguing for lockdown until vaccine.

They aren't risk free as we know.

Is there a risk free way out of lockdown that doesn’t involve keeping kids in for a minimum of 18 months? I’ve not seen it.

Definitely no teacher bashing from me - and I would go in to help if needed.

Yes Jassy and useful thanks

@JassyRadlett

No one is arguing that eventually schools will go back, with some degree of risk. No one is saying ‘let’s keep everyone at home for the next 18 months’.

The point simply is that currently we should not go back. We cannot rush schools back against the advice of the science otherwise the virus will spread too quickly...

but...

as soon as it i safer to do so i.e. numbers impacting on the NHS are coming down, we’ll all happily return to work/school.

Some people would be thrilled for schools to open tomorrow, but that wouldn’t be in the interest of the country. No one on Mumsnet can say when the right time will be...we have professionals who will tell us when that is and we will adhere to what they say. There’s really no argument in it. When will this be? We can all hope/guess, but it’s irrelevant. It will be whenever it will be.

And teachers won’t have a say. We’ll just do as we’re told, which is why teacher bashing on this thread is so pointless.

Whoever above said those not wanting to go back to school are a ‘hysterical minority’. Tell that to people who have lost loved ones, friends, colleges. Ffsake are we not past this sodding ‘everyone is hysterical’ point? Do we need to see bodies being piles up in morgues before people think oh shit maybe this is serious? As a teacher I never ever signed up to put my life in danger. I Love my job with all my heart but I love family and being alive more. My school has 1500 kids. I teach over 500 of them over a week. I then walk past the rest to lunch, to break, in assembly. They go home and meet friends from other schools. That’s a whole lot of contact. Before we closed I was cleaning my room with dettol I bought myself, kids washed hands with soap I bought myself. I used sanitizer I bought myself. The school has no soap, no towels, cleaners went over
Desks with a dirty cloth from the same bucket class to class. I disinfected the toilets from top to bottom every morning. I was told I was being silly . This is what we are dealing with. I cannot physically be 2m from the kids in my class not can they be 2m apart. I’m sorry that some of you are bored of being at home, or that you wish to go back to work, but your children will not be safe in that environment! Even if 1 in 1000 children gets critically sick do you want to risk that for your child? I know of 5 from my school that have been in hospital/ICU. This has not been on the news. Who knows what long term damage the virus may have done.

Thanks DBML you have put it more eloquently than me.

as soon as it i safer to do so i.e. numbers impacting on the NHS are coming down, we’ll all happily return to work/school.

I suppose it’s a question of how you define ‘safe’ - there are clearly people on this thread who think any chance of their child getting it is too much.

I agree with you - schools need to be part of the exit strategy from lockdown(ish). We aren’t there yet but it’s reasonable to discuss the order in which relaxation may happen - which was the original point of the thread.