Surely lockdown should impact rates of covid infection in all parts of the country at the same time, otherwise its not lockdown that's having the impact

[Strangerthanstrange]

Why are we hearing London is two weeks ahead? We all went into Lockdown at the same time. If lockdown is the solution it should surely impact everywhere, not time staggered? In fact in areas where there are fewer cases you would expect it to be more successful? Are we going to believe lockdown was successful when infact it was not the reason for the downturn in cases.

Still pondering on this, surely the fewer cases in an area when lockdown started the better it should fare? Which is not what we are seeing.

I don't get this either, my brain cannot handle how that would work. Bojo said it on 16th March, a week later we went into lockdown. So I wonder whether at that point it stopped being true?

If everywhere is locked down to the same degree then surely the spread can't peak later in other areas.

If we say 21 days from infection to being very poorly/dead then next weekend has to be the peak for everyone.

I guess it depends if in other places they have more carehomes that are spreading it rapidly within them?

Because the transmission/infection rate in London was higher is all they mean, so things had already escalated further there.

If each infected person in London was infecting another 3 people, but somewhere else it was only another 2 people then the charts will look different and the effect of the restrictions will look different.

Plus we're talking about data trends and human beings with all kinds of variables. It's not going to be some perfectly synchronised curve with identical peaks everywhere.

But they are saying it will peak later in other parts of the country. Transmission rates could vary slightky, but surely if lockdown is the solution we shouldn't see a lag in the peak of any areas, though the peak can of course be lower is less populated areas.

Also would mean people stating lockdown should have happened sooner are wrong?

Do you think social distancing is being adhered to the same all over the country?

I don't think London is 2 weeks ahead.

There have been big increases per capita in the West Midlands and parts of Yorkshire in the last few days.

For weeks Birmingham and Sheffield, per capita, were not far behind London anyway

Public transport.. the tube forces people in close proximity and when they leave at their station they take their germs to that area

We are yet to see the effects of lockdown. All the cases and deaths at the moment are from the virus being spread before the lock down started. London and other large cities will be ahead of other places for lots of reasons including population concentration, commuting and tourism.

I think it has a lot to do with who you live with.
If the spread has been reduced on the outside the only thing now affecting rates of transmission is the people in your house

London has more people moving about in closer proximity to each other.

Surely that’s obvious it’ll equal higher transmission rates.

I work in London but live outside. The difference in population is incredibly stark. There’s more reliance on public transport in London for example compare to where I live where you can walk or drive yourself.

You won't see the impact of lockdown on death rates for another week or two yet. Number of cases is misleading as they are failing to test properly. We're doing worse than Italy, look at some graphs and compare the steepness. The Ft analysis is easy to understand.

www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

The virus spread more quickly in London prior to lockdown and has continued to spread as people have still had to go to work using public transport. Where the population density is the greatest of course you are going to see the virus spread more quickly. Each person will be infecting more people than they would do if they lived and worked in a rural area.

Airports may play a factor. People have been flying in from other countries during lockdown. I haven't heard anyone say that London is 2 weeks ahead. Who said that? They may have meant something else.