Prof Neil Ferguson-when confidence in government was rising

[CKBJ]

On BBC radio 4 Today programme, Prof Neil Ferguson one of the government’s top scientific advisors has raised the prospect of reducing “lockdown” in a “few weeks”. This would by no means be normal life but “relaxing of the current social distancing measures and economy”All sounds great news but...it will be based on a new testing regime. As a country we can’t test all the people who need to be tested at the moment eg healthcare workers, how can we in a few weeks time go to a new regime? Are all these testing facilities and equipment going to be ready? Will the new antibody test-which doesn’t even exist as an accurate diagnostic screen yet, be up and running?
I appreciate the “lockdown” has many, many negatives and the sooner we’re back to normal life the better, however I think by the professor making such claims makes me question the government’s handling yet again. Honesty is truly the best policy, especially at a time like this. It doesn’t matter which party you support, track record for honesty in governments and parties is not high.
One last thing there was mention of “herd immunity” again-haven’t heard that for a couple of weeks. I think I understand the scientific thinking behind it but does any scientist know the true longevity of the immunity response to Covid19? I think not.
I want this lockdown over and life to return to normal as much as anyone but I want honesty and fact.

I'm sure his science is excellent, but I think Neil Ferguson is making mistakes on the comms front - wasn't it him last week who was saying there looked like there was a slowing of infection rates after only a day or two of data going down, and then it went up again? It sounds like he's speculating and that's the last thing we need right now - clear messaging from one source is what's needed (and govt is the most appropriate place for that to come from). Someone needs to tell him to stop sharing whatever the latest thought in his head is. This stuff will continue to change rapidly, he's probably not used to the amount of exposure he's getting, and he needs to take more care.

He's not an official government scientific advisor - he's a scientist who is currently providing advice to government. There's a big difference, so what he says should not be taken as official govt messaging.

I was just about the say the same thing 4am said.

I have no doubt that Prof NF is an excellent epidemiologist but I'm not sure he is great at communications in terms of the impact his words might have.

Ill withhold judgment until I listen to the full piece though...

Wiki says he was honoured by the Labour government in 2002 for his work modelling the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak.

Totally agree, his comments are ill advised at best, reckless at worst. People will start to think it's all blowing over and they can crack on with normal life

Umm he said end of May ; that’s at least another 6 weeks of lockdown, and only if people do as they’re told this weekend. That’s hardly rash, tbh.

He's looking for publicity. It is the time for opposition to work together as one united voice. Then we get ppl who think their opinion is more important than unity.

He seems to flip flop every week on what he thinks and says. I know it's a changing situation but it might e better for him to keep his own counsel while it is so fast moving.

From the Guardian:

"This morning, Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London and author of a report which warned of mass deaths if the UK did not introduce strict controls, said the lockdown could be relaxed in weeks – but only if Britons abide by physical distancing restrictions in the meantime.

He said a high level of coronavirus infections could last for “weeks” if people broke physical distancing rules this weekend.

He told BBC Radio 4 that the epidemic was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but said people’s behaviour was critical to determining what happens next. Asked what would happen if people flouted physical distancing rules this weekend, he said:

That moves us to a slightly more pessimistic scenario.

We still think things will plateau but we’ll be at quite high levels of infection for weeks and weeks rather than seeing quite a rapid decline as the type seen in China.

We want to move to a situation where at least by the end of May that we’re able to substitute some less intensive measures, more based on technology and testing, for the complete lockdown we have now."

(Image from the Times)

@TravellingSpoon

But that's consistent with what he said a week ago, so hardly a "flip flop".

Umm he said end of May

He said both! At the start he said a few weeks and then later he said end of May. Messy, flip-floppy communication indeed!

These are his words at the start: : 'I'm hopeful that in a few weeks' time we will be able to move to a regime which - will not be normal life, let me emphasize that - but will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social-distancing and the economy but rely more on testing.'

The end of May is a few weeks isn't it? 6 or 7 weeks is few isn't it?

No wonder people are confused.

The end of May is a few weeks isn't it? 6 or 7 weeks is few isn't it?

Yea nearly two months.

I'm sure his science is excellent, but I think Neil Ferguson is making mistakes on the comms front

Yeah, I tend to agree. He talks in very speculative academic terms about possibilities- fine when discussing scenarios behind closed doors or even as a random scientist, but when he is so high profile his words are given more meaning than he intends.

The truth is he doesn't know. Nobody knows. What he's saying is consistent because he's discussing the parameters of possible outcomes but I'm not sure that's helpful at the moment.

6 or 7 weeks is few isn't it? A few to me is a small number like three weeks, maybe four. Six or seven I'd call several weeks.

I'm sure his science is excellent, but I think Neil Ferguson is making mistakes on the comms front

The problem is his you look his past predictions, also reviewed by his peers his science isn't excellent.