Scotland and Coronavirus - what happens in the future?

[suggestionsplease1]

I'm in Scotland and I think we have been comparatively fortunate with lower numbers of Covid19 infection and death as the lockdown started at a point where we were a good bit behind London, for eg, in the curve.

There is talk in some quarters that we may not need the proposed hospital site at the SECC.

I'm wondering what that means for the future however - as less of the population will have been exposed to the virus and built up some immunity I would have thought we are more at risk of future outbreaks when lockdown conditions are relaxed in time?

I wondered this but then I figured maybe it’s too optimistic? I’m not sure why we in scotland would get off any lighter than everywhere else. Isn’t it more likely we are just way further behind in terms of cases? Surely we will be hit just the same but later. Our restrictions came at the same time so people will get tired of it and start ignoring them especially when they feel the risk here isn’t as bad. Then potentially that’s when we start getting a rush of cases?

I think we've still got some time to go before we hit our peak, unfortunately.

The lack of public transport in many areas mean that more people in Scotland drive rather than take public transport which reduces the spread.

I wondered if our earlier half term holiday in February meant we dodged the worst of the holiday resort exposure, but then we had that rugby match in Rome..

Generally, the population is Scotland is more spread out. Therefore the virus is slower and less likely to spread. This is why it has been rife in the larger cities, with everyone closer together, more public transportation etc.

I am hopeful it may mean lockdown can end earlier in Scotland. Because of the different geography and factors mentioned above

Rome was relatively low risk at the time of the rugby international.

Rural lifestyle - a lot of us are quite used to going days without seeing someone . I was saying on another thread I can’t see more than three houses from my bedroom window - it’s fields and fields for miles . A lot of my relatives live in the highlands around Beauly area and are saying short of leaving work, they haven’t noticed much difference to their lives . Most people I know avoided going to the city routinely anyway - and lack of transport too, we have no trains here .

I think the bigger worry a lot of people have up here is that now - if you can’t drive - you are really very cut off . Buses have been pulled right back, taxis obviously aren’t that safe and shops are struggling to get deliveries as stuff is prioritised to supermarkets, and getting an online delivery seems impossible as so many fighting for it . We only have one delivering Tescos that covers about a 30 mile radius - and two Sainsburys to cover the entire of bloody Aberdeenshire . It’s not easy at all .

Family further up would usually do a one monthly run to Tesco - 50 mile round trip from up the glen - and now have to do that weekly as can no longer bulk buy . So that’s not helping matters .

All of that does make sense actually. We aren’t rural though. We are right in the capital so I wonder if I can take the same comfort and hope or if it’s just likely we have even longer to go before it’s at its worst. But I do wonder with us not having tubes etc... but people in edinburgh use buses a lot so maybe not.

Maybe its because were not as touchy feely! Not a lot of hugging and multiple cheek kissing going on here compared countries further south.

@Wbeezer but not in comparison to England.. that’s more what I’m wondering. Are we just going to escalate at same rate but it be dragged out longer because we are far behind at the moment?

That's what I'm pondering - if it's going to be dragged out for longer here. There still seem to be government advisers touting this 'herd immunity' as the eventual way forward, I think Scotland would probably be a good bit behind England on that front?

At the same time I think they have to adopt a uniform policy for the whole of the UK in terms of restrictions or people might just try to move to areas where they were relaxed.

I’m not sure but I was absolutely raging that Rangers vs Bayern Something was allowed to go ahead the Thursday before we all got told to wfh. The subway was rammed. That was the point at which I started to really worry. Dragging the fucking pathetic football out as far as they could.

@suggestionsplease1 god I hope not. But there just seems absolutely no viable reason why we would not have the same level of extreme. We are just going to be going for longer because ours is still picking up, for want of a better term

@suggestionsplease1but then again...what about the fact our population is only about a tenth of England?

I have colleagues who've been told to expect redeployment to the SEC hospital beds, so I can't believe the media reports that the site won't be needed.

Someone on another thread said Scotland saying 12-13 weeks of lockdown anyway? Anyone else heard this?

Yeah, I think there's a lot in the fact the population is only a tenth, but I don't know that tis is the full story - some experts still predict, per capita, lower infection and death rate (for time being anyway) just because the intervention was introduced at an earlier stage of the spread.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/coronavirus/18348311.coronavirus-scotland-early-lockdown-means-death-rate-will-lower-rest-uk/

Yes, 13 weeks has been mentioned by chief medical officer:

"Scotland's Chief Medical Officer Dr Catherine Calderwood said: "We will need some measures for at least 13 weeks.""

Whether that is the same as what we have currently, tighter or looser, who knows? I guess it is still largely a guessing game as the impact pf measures is only really established from 18 or so days later, which I think is the average of when a death might occur after infection.

Yep, I have a friend who is very involved in the logistics of setting up the SECC site, so as far as she is aware everything will proceed there. But I guess they do have to plan for that anyway - the worst would be if they didn't and it was needed, there would a massive public backlash.

@suggestionsplease1 thanks so much for that article. Very interesting.

I'm in Scotland. The only people I know who have had it imported it from London after a weekend away (and are now fully recovered). I think a lot of it has to do with us all being a bit more spread out - there are far more people living within the M25 than there are in the whole of Scotland. Schools were closed and movement restricted at an earlier stage in the epidemic. On the whole from what i'm seeing, people are taking it seriously and doing as they're told.

Fingers crossed we don't need the Nightingale Glasgow at the SECC. That would be the best case scenario.

Fingers crossed we don't need the Nightingale Glasgow at the SECC. That would be the best case scenario

In some ways yes @PineappleDanish. But tbh if someone I loved was ill I would rather they went there than the horrible Death Star that is the QEUH/Southern. My friend is a cleaner there and she said a few weeks back that she would never want to be hospitalised there herself.

O no, Scotland's Chief Medical Officer Catherine Calderwood visited her holiday home in Fife over the weekend!

What a catastrophic error of judgement! That's going to really undermine her credibility in the announcements.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/05/scotland-chief-medical-officer-seen-flouting-lockdown-advice-catherine-calderwood

That makes me furious... what’s the point of me obeying rules at great personal cost while the powers that be don’t? Surely she will need to resign