How many lives are we actually saving

[Baaaahhhhh]

An interesting read from the BBC, and a question that I have been wondering about since the ONS released figures last week.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

Article talks about the effect of different scenarios on the number of excess deaths ie: over and above what would be expected, and versus other seasonal illnesses like normal flu.

The shielding group is just going to have to shield themselves. Let us get back to work so there's an infrascturure to support them.

It's not about the shielding group, can't you see that?

Have you seen the size and scope of the vulnerable group? That's you're biggest concern. What do you think those people do all day, normally? They're the bus drivers, doctors, telephone engineers, shop assistants, nurses, utility workers, power station workers, teachers, cleaners, police officers - yet you're advocating letting loose a virus that at best will take them out of action for a couple of weeks at worst will kill a fair number. And youre answer is "let business worry about that".

You're clearly not posting in good faith.

"We need to get the NHS open again - the closure will kill more people than Covid-19 would"

The lockdown is the best chance of keeping the NHS functioning for other diseases and accidents

If people have been told it is too dangerous to treat them now, it certainly won't be any safer for them if there are far more COVID cases

It would extend their wait for treatment

but the government can’t afford to keep paying furlough, it ends on the 31st May and then they will review it, in the first 3 months it has cost £10billion, how is that sustainable?

I agree. What's your solution? Let the virus sweep through the population? How will that work?

I don’t think the government will have a choice at some point, a vaccine won’t be available for another 18 months. The other option is testing to see if people have the natural immunity with passports.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/the-guardian-view-on-immunity-passports-an-idea-whose-time-has-not-come

So far the antibody tests are not successful.

I truly can't see a way forward. No, we can't continue with a trashed economy but then what will the impact be of thousands sick and dying, many of whom will be part of the workforce?

I was watching an interview last night with an ITU consultant in Wales. They had 20 odd patients ventilated at the time, using all ITU beds plus extra capacity. All were in their 50s or younger. They weren't old people about to die anyway

The numbers from Italy so far, 85% deaths from coronvirus are over 70

www.statista.com/statistics/1105061/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/

And the morbidity?

I think Italy gas a different demographic. We need to look at our figures to work out the effects it will have here.

We will have to wait and see what the powers that be decide, everything changes very quickly at the moment, 4 weeks ago we were all going about our daily lives as normal, who knows what the next 4 weeks will bring.

The numbers from Italy so far, 85% deaths from coronvirus are over 70

And?

@SimonJT so if you’re likely to die from getting the flu, what exactly do you suggest we do? The flu goes round every year, you’re just as likely to catch that as CV-19 this year. Therefore you are likely to die this year by that crude measurement, more than someone else. So do we all isolate in our homes forever more lest less healthy people catch anything at all? What’s your suggestion?

I was watching an interview last night with an ITU consultant in Wales. They had 20 odd patients ventilated at the time, using all ITU beds plus extra capacity. All were in their 50s or younger. They weren't old people about to die anyway

That is sad and doesn’t really surprise me. Older people won’t get the care. Not sure on age cut off.

I have the flu vaccine that significantly reduces my chances of catching the flu, I have never had flu (even when I had an entire spleen). Statistically I am not likely to die within the next 12 months (ignoring covid of course).

@BuffaloCauliflower

And we can vaccinate against the flu and can also use various antivirals to minimise it.

Being at high risk from COVID19, doesn't mean that ordinarily we were all about to die.

Many of us at very high risk have entirely normal life expectancy. That doesn't mean that we won't die from something earlier, just as a "healthy" person can't be sure of that either.

We will end this lock down and a significant proportion will be gleeful and will make up second wave.

I had hoped for the antibody tests when they spoke of 3.5m on order. But in principle only they haven’t found a working one yet so not happening.

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras @SimonJT
The flu evolves though and different strains go around, the vaccine won’t necessarily cover the strain that is most prevalent that year. I’ve had the flu after having a flu vaccine. It’s not a fail safe.

The shielding group is just going to have to shield themselves. Let us get back to work so there's an infrascturure to support them.

How exactly are those in nursing/residential care or needing home care going to “shield themselves”?

I am aware how viruses work

The shielding group is just going to have to shield themselves. Let us get back to work so there's an infrascturure to support them.

The lock down can’t be overly long, so this will probably happen. It’s still the issue with the non-shielded making up casualties in second wave.

The thing is, the lives that are saved by these measures don’t get reported.

Are there reliable statistics being reported about the number of lives lost because the GP surgeries and hospitals have effectively shut themselves down and aren't providing care to those who apparently needed it upto a few weeks ago, such as those having cancer treatment, those have regular blood tests to monitor serious ongoing health problems, those needing other tests such as ECG etc. All that appears to have come to a halt. What about everyone else other than those at risk of Covid-19???

The antibody test is a no go because there are now a few different strains floating around. Just because you’ve had one doesn’t mean you are protected from getting sick again.

So the way that this IS like flu is that it has the potential to one back every winter and wipe out up to 2.5% of the population every time. More if those who recovered previously are left with permanent lung damage.

What ever we do has to be a long term solution. Herd immunity and anti-body tests are a fiction at this stage. Hence why everyone in government is suddenly back tracking so quickly on anything they ever said about either as a solution.

The flu evolves though and different strains go around, the vaccine won’t necessarily cover the strain that is most prevalent that year. I’ve had the flu after having a flu vaccine. It’s not a fail safe.

Err, yes, I think we all know that seeing as we have it every year? It's still protective with some drs holding a view that by having it every year there is a cumulative protection even if they haven't included the "right" strain that year.

Also, unless you have been tested you don't actually know that am illness you had was influenza.

Anyone who is now not getting treatment is not getting treatment because of the virus, not because of the lockdown

The aim of the lockdown is to try and ensure that we have enough resources to look after everyone no matter what their illness instead of being swamped by seriously ill people , having no beds and no nurses for anyone . Only we left it a little late

It's not about the shielding group, can't you see that?

Have you seen the size and scope of the vulnerable group? That's you're biggest concern. What do you think those people do all day, normally? They're the bus drivers, doctors, telephone engineers, shop assistants, nurses, utility workers, power station workers, teachers, cleaners, police officers - yet you're advocating letting loose a virus that at best will take them out of action for a couple of weeks at worst will kill a fair number. And youre answer is "let business worry about that".

My answer to 'let business worry about it' was your comment about absences as you well know.

The death rate of covid19 is somewhere between .5% and 1% according to the BBC. There is a lot of evidence (which I'm sure you will never look at) suggesting the overall death rate is much, much lower. It does not take a rocket scientist to work out that if we were to shield the 2% most vulnerable population, the death rate is going to be much, much lower still.

As for me posting in 'bad faith', don't be so melodramatic.

There is a lot of evidence (which I'm sure you will never look at) suggesting the overall death rate is much, much lower.

Any links?

The economy is screwed either way. Even if you end lockdown right now and allow the virus to run it's course, it's not good for the economy to have tens (or more likely hundreds) of thousands of people dying, many thousands of people off sick, a collapsing health service, the general population living in fear and consumer confidence in the toilet.

There's no way around taking an economic hit, but it is possible to save lives.