How many lives are we actually saving

[Baaaahhhhh]

An interesting read from the BBC, and a question that I have been wondering about since the ONS released figures last week.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

Article talks about the effect of different scenarios on the number of excess deaths ie: over and above what would be expected, and versus other seasonal illnesses like normal flu.

@Baaaahhhhh

You’re not understanding what I’m saying. This problem is being addressed on a population level. The goal is for as much of the country as possible to come out of this ok- as in the essential industries that provide the stuff needed to keep most of the country on it’s feet.

If we just let people choose to get out of lockdown and take their chances we’d wipe out any of the whole population benefits gained during the current lockdown. Because re-infection would occur and we’d be back to square one with vital industries halted by death or sickness. Again, chaotic collapse of vital services- no policing, no teaching, no cancer treatment and no food supply chain.

Lockdown does two things- stops the spread of the virus easing the pressure on vital services AND protects what is actually key service from being swamped by staff sickness and being unable to function.

You are right the economy cannot survive like this. The economy as we knew it is done for. The sooner people accept that the better.

Anyone campaigning for a shorter lockdown is actually campaigning for extended and uncontrolled economic and social chaos. Until there is a vaccine there is no way out of lockdown that doesn’t cause more issues than it solves.

Sorry, addressed to the wrong poster. That was actually for @ChardonnaysPetDragon

Can you afford to stay in lockdown until a vaccine is found?

Because I can't, and millions of other people cannot.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

Yes, I can. But I can afford that by taking the mortgage holiday offered, all the payment holidays offered by utilities companies and the furlough pay my husband is taking and using all of our savings and sitting tight.

I’m perfectly prepared for the facts our lives will be different after this. DH is probably going to lose his job completely after furlough comes to an end. He’s already looking at sectors locally that need workers. Probably not in the field he works in now.

BECAUSE we both know that the government cannot do a thing about raising lockdown before a vaccine is being distributed and people have certificates of vaccination.

At that point DH is most likely going to have to do a lower paid job in an essential industry for a bit if he cannot find something in his own industry.

We’re all going to have to be a bit resourceful, a bit less self obsessed and a lot less proud.

The time for shoulda, coulda, wouldas is loooooong gone.

We’ve gone from being well off with DH full time and well paid and me part time and well paid to is just being me. So one PT wage. Believe me. I know how you feel but raising lockdown will only prolong the pain.

chard

It's been carefully explained to you how there is no way for you to continue with your life right now. It's been pointed out that the costs you're associating with lockdown would also be associated with a premature exit from lockdown. I notice you ignore that sort of point because it doesn't chime with what you want to do. Fair enough but I'm not going to try and talk to someone with that mindset. The last point I'll make is your assumption that those wanting to get back to work would be doing so so that those who wish to isolate can do so. It doesn't work like that.

Everyone is in the same boat and has to pull together and behave in the same way, otherwise you'll get sick and take beds from the vulnerable who will get certainly sick in this world you want where you're working and there isn't a lockdown. Because yes, there would be a second wave and you'd want a bed for you, your grandma and your child.

You would also not be donating your wages or facilitating the lives of those who were isolating so don't pretend you would. You'd be working for you, because you want to. Those who have to work to facilitate this clamp down on the virus are already working. You're clearly not a key worker. I get the point you're making but we actually don't need you right now anywhere but at home.

We're all equally fucked but no, that doesn't give you license to pick and choose who gets to live. The cost to the economy will be horrendous with an out of control virus in the population. There is no less radical way to avoid it now because our government was stupid. It's this or (more) carnage.

It's not fair but sometimes life is hard and unfair and generally calls for more than we feel like delivering. Not rising to the occasion can indeed be selfish. Sorry to be patronising but I think you're being a bit...disingenuous and there isn't time for that. Look at the fear in Matt Hancock's eyes. He's a Tory. It's not in their nature to behave like this.

There is going to be a second wave, and a third, and on and on. I can't believe some people are still clinging to this lockdown cures it theory

I always knew I should be Swedish

Furlough won’t last forever, the government have said they will pay until the end of May and review, if you don’t receive the furlough payment can you still afford not to work? Some are not entitled to furlough and have been laid off, what do they do while we wait for a vaccine?

We’ll never know.
But the fact four NHS workers died in the last 24 hours makes it worth it to me to stay in. I don’t want any more to die. Every death is a terrible tragedy. These nurses were in their 30s. They each had three kids

You would also not be donating your wages or facilitating the lives of those who were isolating so don't pretend you would. You'd be working for you, because you want to

I never said I would be donating my wages because I need them, and yes, I am full letter carrying key worker, but that's neither here nor there, and I will be working because I need to.

One question, who will grow and deliver your food if everybody stayed home?

@TestBank

Are you sure Sweden have gotten it right? They seem to be wavering on their insistence that they don’t need a lockdown.

I suppose we’ll see.

Until then, people should consider when they go out that the RO for coronavirus is 2.6 and that 25% of people are asymptomatic spreaders. And that obesity has now been identified as a major aggravating factor for coronavirus mortality.

The government needs to do more to provide for people who are falling between the cracks. But raising lockdown is not the answer when people can’t be trusted to act responsibly and for the good of the whole rather than just themselves.

No, who knows if Sweden have it right or not but my guess is that overall deaths in a year's time when added up will be the same, just their economy isn't fubared

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

You do realise the production and distribution of food is classed as a key industry? It’s one of the areas DH is looking at to get a job.

I do, but it seems others posters do not and think everybody should stay home and if they go out to work then they mustn't be allowed to use the Health Service.

Bit pointless staying in permanent lockdown if your husband is out and about daily, working?

It's all black and white for some, and you know, I can't really blame them.

If I could afford to stay home I would. But I cannot and telling me going to work is selfish thing.

@BelleSausage you can afford to stay in lock down until a vaccine is found?

In 12-18 months? You won’t be getting a mortgage holiday for that long.

Very very few people could financially survive a 12-18 month lock down.

If you're a key worker, then why are you complaining about wanting to go back to work? Bizarre.

Also, of all people, you should be aware that lockdown and social distancing isn't designed to cure anything. For the poster who'd like to be Swedish, come back and update us next month.

The present course of action is a reactive measure to prevent a worse outcome as more treatment, testing and vaccine options become available. It may take longer than we'd like, but unfortunately for those of us looking for reasons to pretend this isn't happening, there is actually a point to it. If for no other reason, perhaps it will mean that we won't hear of multiple deaths of NHS workers each day. There is no reason why they should be nominated as martyrs, which is what we'll do if we don't stay home.

The present conditions are providing enough food for the supply chain. Yes, some people are unfortunate enough to hold jobs that are considered essential and they, together with their families, are at greater risk as a result. They are another reason for the rest of us to stay home and support them by making it less likely they're in harm's way.

Testing. Developing treatment options. And finally a vaccine. That's how this ends.

PicsInRed Fri 03-Apr-20 11:15:07
Without control of this disease, the lights will go out. Literally.

*How much of modern life, hospitals, prisons, heated homes and cooking facilities, water quality monitoring, checkout and electronic payment facilities at the supermarket, depend on electricity?

That's just one massive impact if too many younger, key workers become very unwell, never mind deaths from coronavirus. It will be deaths from other causes*.

This is the first time I've heard this mentioned on any forum. The utilities are just as important as the front line NHS or food distribution. Without power and clean water EVERYTHING stops. It's another group of workers who need PPE when they enter customers homes as part of their work.

The workforce involved is tiny compared to the NHS etc. but they are not just men who dig holes and slow down the traffic. They are highly skilled and if the virus ripped through that group there would be no one to take over. Where possible they are limiting contact with each other not using depots unless necessary. They are on call 24/7 too.

We are all so dependent on one another. I hope everyone remembers that when this eventually dies down.

@oldbeforem

Yes, I can because I have to. I’ll have to be resourceful. I’m not above using food banks if we get to that point or helping out on the front line in a supermarket job if it comes to that.

Think of this as a war if you have to. If we let the virus run rampant through the population it could destabilise key services and bring about the collapse of government systems and safety nets. That means no help for anyone with anything. A lot of people would die needlessly in the chaos that followed.

But it we fight it by staying at home and supporting our key services then the government has the control to offer support packages and try to protect the financially and physically vulnerable.

This package might means that some of us have to join up by doing our jobs in a different way and changing our lifestyles. Some of us might even have to become frontlines worker as those in the frontlines get sick and die. In a lockdown situation this is very much fewer people than without lockdown and the need to replace is slower and more controlled.

I get that this is hard for people. It is hard for us all. Two months ago I didn’t think we would be on one wage, stuck at home with all our dreams and plans in tatters. But that is the hand that life has rolled me. I’m just going to have to make the best out of it by taking all the help I can and doing what everyone else is doing- surviving by pivoting really hard to make my life fit the circumstances.

The quicker people accept that their old life is not coming back but that they can change and it won’t be that bad then the better off they’ll be long term.

BTW- the Germans have a vaccine that works in mice. It is going through human trials right now. I’d say we are looking at Oct/Nov before the first round of vaccinations and they’ll go to key workers first.

However if you remove lockdown and over burden the health service then all the other types of death will rise too. The person who gets a septic finger from gardening won't get treated, the girl who overdosed won't get her stomach pumped etc etc. It won't just be a case of those dying with CV.

It'll be a year before we can compare Sweden/death rates and UK. Obviously their rates will peak much quicker but then tail off, whereas ours will have a number of peaks.
Eventually everyone/most people catch it and either die or don't die
There is no version of our current lockdown where the plan is to stay on lockdown til it goes away

This was an article from the times 14 months ago

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Patient is given winter flu vaccine
People who have not had the winter flu vaccine appear to be most at risk of becoming critically ill. Photograph: David Cheskin/PA
Flu has left more than 2,000 Britons needing life-or-death treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU) this winter, even though the virus is circulating at unusually low levels.

Senior doctors said as many people were at risk of dying as during the pandemics of 2009-10 and 2010-11, despite the small numbers contracting the virus.

One leading expert said the strain of flu this winter was so virulent that it had left people who were previously fit and healthy critically ill, some of whom hospitals have been unable to save. Those who have not had this year’s winter flu vaccine appear to be most at risk.

Pregnant women and adults with a long-term medical condition who contract the virus are most likely to end up struggling to breathe so badly that they could die, said Public Health England (PHE). This strain of flu is following a dangerously different pattern than usual, with comparatively few people visiting their GP about it but large numbers becoming so unwell they risk dying.

In total, 2,182 people in the UK have had to be admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) or high-dependency unit (HDU) because of flu since the start of October. That is more than the 2,045 who needed such care in the same period last year, when the virus was much more prevalent. Flu has killed 195 this winter, though that is down on the 241 deaths that occurred in the same period in 2017-18.

Interesting link on numbers, including the financial impact on different age groups

he vast majority of deaths involving COVID-19 have been among people aged 65 years and over (100 out of 108), with almost half (45) of these occurring in the over-85 age group.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26