ONS.

[GotTheCityOnLockdown]

My friend made a really interesting point to me earlier.

According to ONS, in March '19 there were 42,000 deaths in England.
In the first 3 weeks of March '20 there have been 32,559 deaths (including those caused by COVID-19.)

If we are facing such a lethal disease, wouldn't the numbers be a hell of a lot higher?

We're all forced to stay at home, to only go to the supermarket.
We've been told we can exercise once a day, we can't see family/friends, to close our businesses if they're 'non-essential'
The police have been given the powers to fine/arrest people if they're caught out without (what the officers deem as) a good reason.
We're facing catastrophic effects on the economy, people reaching a point of financial destitution.
But the numbers are roughly the same as last year...

Can anyone explain it? I'm more than willing to accept I'm wrong, but I can't get my head around it!

There has also been a decrease in deaths being attributed to influenza and pneumonia and an increase in deaths attributed to Covid-19 even where testing has not taken place.

' The number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased, while the number of deaths from “Influenza and Pneumonia” decreased compared with the previous week'

'Figures in this report are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of COVID-19, for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test for the virus was conducted.'

well done OP for raising some awareness about these points. Many people do not seem to have remembered that lots of people die every day.

@NemophilistRebel

Exactly and the exponential rise people are saying we should expect hasn’t been shown true anywhere yet even with Spain and their rates.

Has it occurred to you that it’s because countries are taking drastic measures to prevent that??

The other point that the article makes is that closing down the economy will cost lives. A lot of people seem to assume that we can hide in our houses for months without appreciating the consequences. Many many jobs will be lost and you certainly do not want to be a school leavers or graduate trying to get a first job now. More families will be on the breadlines. This poverty all shortens lives and their life chances.

I’m fine with 3-4 week lockdown to allow the NHS to cope and to reduce the peak but we should rightly question the calls to extend this until a vaccine that may never come

@Eyewhisker of course he said that, it makes people panic less if they can ‘other’ the people who are dying

@Zxyzoey31

🙄🙄

I think before you sensationalise hundreds of thousands dying it may be worth looking at the actual number of people in the age vulnerable category we are talking about. If it kills every over 85yr old in the country which we know it doesn’t what would the actual figure look like.
For example there are estimated to be 1.6 million over 85s if 10% die after catching Covid this would be 160K. You can see why shielding is so important. What we don’t know is how many of these 160k would have died this year regardless of Covid.
The other problem is how many of the 85+ group live in communal care homes where spread is likely to be much higher than if they were at home.
There are so many variables simply looking at a few figures makes it impossible to predict accurately what will happen.

Yes, Neil Ferguson did say that up to two-thirds of those who died would have died soon of other causes. This is not a stupid thing to say.

It seems foolish because it's far too early to say that. Surely the most you can say is that a large proportion may have died anyway within a few years? Do you have a citation please?

@Eyewhisker

This is not a stupid thing to say. Half of all those who died in Italy are over 90. Yes, it is very sad that they died, but it is likely that many of them would have died this year

If you’re going to quote figures, it might be wise to check them first

There are loads of people ‘losing lives ones before their time’ exactly as he said when he decided to do & prepare jack shit.

Losing loved ones before their time

Maybe she misquoted - it’s more than 50% of over 80 year olds

What’s the average lifespan in Italy?

AmelieTaylor

@NemophilistRebel

Exactly and the exponential rise people are saying we should expect hasn’t been shown true anywhere yet even with Spain and their rates.

Has it occurred to you that it’s because countries are taking drastic measures to prevent that??*

I think you misunderstood

Op, this is something all countries are looking at.

It’s the difference between dying with corona, versus dying because of it. It is not maths that will be done until this is over, but many countries are forecasting little to no spike year on year.

The effort we are making is to prevent deaths. It’s not about the absolutes of how many actually died, as an isolated statistic, Because if we don’t make the effort the death rate could run to millions.

The fact we will be successful does not mean the risk was never there. It does not mean that only x thousand of people would have died had we did nothing or less. As such, we made a mistake.

All the reconciliation will tell us is extra deaths, and how successful we were at containing and managing this virus and protecting human health.

I think that’s something people really need to remember. It’s about how many lives we saved by doing this.

Ensuring the nhs does not breath capacity means everyone who needs treatment gets it, if it’s breached it means people die without the help they need. If we let it run rampant through our society that would likely have been millions.

By doing this, millions of people will live, that would otherwise have likely lost their lives.

Deep breaths

Why? Because you're attempting to portray anyone who thinks your post is disingenuous as somehow not calm?

Remember; educate, don't berate.

I did. I gave you a word to look up. Exponential. Once you understand what it means, you'll understand what the implications are.
If you want more education, switch on some of the wall to wall coverage of how viruses reproduce, or look at one of the dozens of graphs published in every media outlet.

I simply don't believe that someone who is knowledgeable of the current COVID-19 death statistics, and knowledgeable of the annual death statistics over several years, has managed inexplicably to evade the most basic information about exponential growth rates, or hasnt heard a single projection. Hasn't seen the footage of Italian hospitals overwhelmed, or heard of the number of fatalities in their health service.

Hasn't heard a single comment about how the UK is less than 3 weeks behind Italy. Hasn't heard the overall mortality rate.

There have been plenty of genuine posters asking for help understanding a concept they've heard of but don't comprehend. And people take time to explain.

But you're the first to patronisingly tell others to take "deep breaths" when they point out that it's not the beginning of an exponential death toll that you need to understand. It's the end.

I'd suggest you invest as much time in reading about exponential growth as you did writing a post about comparative deaths at the beginning of March.

It really would be time well spent.

Does anyone know when the peak is now due to happen in Italy and Spain as their numbers are still 700+ per day with no sign of reducing the curve

With us so close behind it would be reassuring if we could see their measures working considering they took them sooner than we did

"millions of people will live, that would otherwise have likely lost their lives"
seems like hyperbole or are you talking globally?

This is so dangerous and stupid!
There is a pandemic! Reality!
It's a zoonosis which means it is an animal disease transferred to humans and is new to us so we have no immunity, it causes serious risk of death and critical illness and there is no treatment apart from supportive - but nearly everyone who gets ventilated dies.

So comparing what happened last year with last month is completely meaningless because we have a viral illness spreading exponentially !!
I can't believe you can see the way hospitals are overwhelmed in the tv but you want to believe it's media hype or a conspiracy theory ? Get real please

Unfortunately I think there will be some countries where different action will be taken and we'll see the worst case. According to the Guardian, Brazil is seeing a ten fold increase in a week and the drug gangs are stepping in to impose a lock down because the government won't.

The entire point of preventative measures is that the worst case doesn't happen. So the death rate isn't significantly higher than usual, it doesn't mean the measures were pointless, it means they worked.

The rates were doubling every few days and there is significant evidence disproving the theory that most of us have had it already. It doesn't take long for 5000 to become 100000 at that rate.

@Barracker Which post are you referring to? I changed to this name 3 days ago.
Don't accuse me of things you've no idea about. It just makes you look ridiculous.

There's nothing disingenuous about posting figures that are easily accessible to anyone using the internet and discussing why there's not a huge difference.

I'm sorry we aren't all know it alls like you, imagine what the world would be like!

Also, I told only you to take deep breaths as your post was incredibly rude and patronising.

Nothing educational about it. Just you thinking you know the ins and outs, and clearly disliking posters who you don't deem knowledgable enough.

Oh, perhaps I wasn't clear.
It isn't that I think you are not knowledgeable.
It's that I suspect you actually are.

Anyway. Despite your rudeness, to posters who responded to your "what's the big deal" thread, I'll reiterate.

Look up exponential.
And then you'll have answered your own question.

Consider that some free online distance learning education.

@NemophilistRebel

Exactly and the exponential rise people are saying we should expect hasn’t been shown true anywhere yet even with Spain and their rates

Exponential rise is just as present when 1 death doubles to 2 as when 1000 doubles to 2000. When growth is plotted on an exponential scale, if it's a straight line, this means the growth is exponential.

Here is the graph of deaths in the UK, plotted on an exponential scale. As you can see, it's pretty straight. This means the growth IS currently exponential.

Yes but you’ve misunderstood my point

On a logarithmic scale, sorry!

Wasn't your point that we weren't seeing exponential growth?