What do you think is likely 'end game' for furlough employees?

[pandarific]

This is total thinking (worrying) out loud, I am claiming no expertise here.

I work in a skilled role in a company (mention this as my salary isn't eg minimum wage so our mortgage, outgoings etc are in line with this). We expect them to make some announcements next week about potentially redeploying some employees to different parts of the business, furloughing others, perhaps some taking pay cuts etc.

If I was given a choice, personally furlough would be my last, as to me it's most uncertain about what happens if lockdown rolls on long-term, if recovery is slow and the business doesn't need you back soon? I wouldn't put it past this government to cut it payments from 80 to 50% of your salary, or less if it came to it.

Or, say you were furloughed but came up as immune on the testing which will be rolled out over the next few months - then I could see you potentially being required to take up a completely different necessary role, but I'd imagine your new salary would be that of the new role rather than what it was - so eg healthcare assistant/delivery driver salary.

So, has anyone any thoughts on the above? Am I being massively paranoid? It's more worries about the mortgage than anything else and trying to plan - yes I know there are payment holidays but those won't be extended indefinitely?

A lot of uncertainties i imagine there will be loads of Redundancies and terminations anx redeployment.
Save as much as possible.

Is worrying going to benefit you? It wont stop or change whats going to happen. It will harm your health though.

Maybe I am overly optimistic, but I don’t think the government would dare pull a fast one by reducing the furlough payment below 80%.

Yes I’ve heard the furlough 80% probably won’t remain so. I’ve got to inform my team next week on who is furloughed and I know this will be asked

I have no guidelines to refer them to but come on, it won’t be paid indefinitely. Let’s be honest. They will be moved into UC or something

The government estimates for take up were 10%. Take up is running at 44%. The treasury has a new bond issue to cover the 10%. It will not last longer than three months unless you want junk bond status - which would bankrupt the country.

I've been furloughed. I think the government will set a time limit on how long they will pay wages for though.

My employers have reassured me that I will 100% have a job to go back to, they are lovely employers and I know they will do everything possible to keep my job. But it just depends on how well business goes over the next few months (non essential business selling goods to online retailers) as orders have dropped by about 60% at the moment. I'm under no illusions.

I have a letter saying up to 31st May and then they will review it

"The government estimates for take up were 10%. Take up is running at 44%."

The report I read (Sky) was that a British Chamber of Commerce survey suggested that "A total of 44% of business will temporarily lay off at least 50% of staff, according to the organisation's COVID-19 Business Impact Tracker."

So the overall take up will depend on which companies are using it, and what percentage of staff - eg if the 44% tend to be smaller employers it would be a smaller proportion of total employees (and vice versa obviously).

Where are all these numbers coming from about the estimated and actual take up (10% vs 44%) please? Is there a source for this?

I have a number of furloughed colleagues and everyone's understanding is that the business did it to avoid redundancies, in hope we can pick everything back up together in few months' time. That's why we all need to sit tight now and do our bit by following the lockdown guidance.

I suspect if this goes on for longer, it might be the case that furloughed employees' pay will be reduced, I don't think anyone can realistically expect the Govt to pay a decent wage to so many people for 6 months or longer, let's be realistic. The number of furloughed employees will also increase every week and month when this is going on. It's common sense I guess.

But what are the other options, most likely temporary reduced hours at reduced pay or redundancy, so not exactly better? The reality is hardly anyone (apart from the key sectors of course, and possibly the likes of insurance and IT) can say they'll definitely have a lot of work to do in the next 1, 3 or 6 months because we're all interdependent financially - if other businesses collapse, our businesses may well not have any work/not be able to do much, it's impossible to predict now. It's the reality for most of us, not really a choice.

Also I see nothing wrong with being redeployed, especially if you're immune. If I were furloughed or at risk of redundancy, I'd definitely do it. Surely if you're in a well paid role you ought to have a financial buffer for a few months at least to top you up, and there are plenty of options available (mortgage/payment holidays etc) that might help you through the tightest time.

I've been furloughed and it's my best chance of having a job to go back to. Worth taking the small hit now for the company I work for to keep going. I will have a job at the end of this, am pretty certain, because of what we do but conscious others can't say the same.

I work in hospitality, I honestly don't see us going back for 6 months, maybe more. And then what? Although we're all a bit stir crazy and would love to go out with family and friends for meals and drinks at the moment, realistically, I can't see people having the money to do so, especially if like me, they've lost 20% of their income for however long, and generally use 100% of it to live (and I'm in no way ungrateful for the 80% but it's a fact for many that 80% isn't going to cover outgoings)
I can see big chains getting through and sustaining slow business when hospitality reopens, and possibly places like mine where corporate is our bread and butter, if indeed that's not changed forever by WFH.
In all honesty I don't know if the business I work in will be there to go back to after all this. And then hospitality jobs are going to be in short supply because many will be in the same boat.
Can see me being on UC and job seeking in 6 months in all honesty.

Mrs MGE here's the sky report I read about the 44%.

news.sky.com/story/nearly-half-of-firms-will-furlough-most-of-their-staff-next-week-11967142

It's hard to tell oldhaggard - there may be quite substantial demand for hospitality when things move on - lots of cancelled events being rescheduled, for instance. Or maybe things will have changed, and there will be less appetite for socialising and business 'events'. It's very difficult to know. May depend on where we are on vaccines, anti virals, immunity testing etc.

I think by 3 months they'll be expecting there to be a phased end to lockdown and start letting businesses return to a degree of normality and reducing their own responsibilities to companies they are currently supporting. They always said that lockdown was to lower the curve to reduce immediate the strain on the NHS. We now have all the extra capacity at the Nightingale hospitals with a few more yet to be built. I'd also hope that in the next few weeks more testing will be done. Cases surely have to be down after 3 months- we can't all just sit at home for another 12 months waiting for a vaccine.

I don't think it's feasible to keep the 80% wage scheme running for longer than 3 maybe 4 months. Perhaps a new scheme will be set up to stop businesses with huge cash reserves using HMRC to pay their wages (i.e Tottenham) but in the end companies like that will just get rid of staff to protect their cash.

I think the government might crack down on furlough and only keep it for businesses who actually are instructed to remain closed. Which is probably how it should have been in the first place.

But I imagine a lot who ended up having to be furloughed because they claimed to be too “scared” to come to work all of a sudden, despite probably being in the pub or on the beaches a couple of days before, and then forcing their employers to close, might end up being made redundant.

The country can’t afford to pay 80% wages for long though. I thought it was 3
Months and that’s it.

Prospects will depend entirely on individual companies not whether an individual employee is furloughed or not. Try not to worry, it won't change anything. Try to spend time constructively. Is there anything you can do to prepare for the prospect of reduced income? Review all your bills, make savings where you can, save money you would have spent on going out? I know that's not possible for everyone.

MigginsMrs It’s the company’s decision to furlough staff members, not the staff choosing it. Already, I am seeing this “othering” of furloughed workers. It’s disgusting. I suppose if we are made redundant you can say it’s all our own fault then?

The government estimates for take up were 10%. Take up is running at 44%.

Stop scaremongering

I read it in the FT yesterday. "The Treasury has estimated that about 3m people, or 10 per cent of the private sector workforce, would be laid off temporarily and thus their employers would be able to take advantage of the government job retention scheme, which covers four-fifths of wages up to £2,500 a month.

However, in a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce, about 44 per cent of companies said that at least half their staff would be paid through the scheme, and one-third said that they were planning to furlough more than 75 per cent of their workforce over the next week. A fifth of businesses had closed operations temporarily, it found".

@Cluelessbeetroot why don't you write to the FT and tell them to stop scaremongering. You not liking the facts is not the same as them not being true.

@MigginsMrs yep I think that was the original purpose of the furlough but obviously unions have put pressure on employers on safety grounds, pretty much regardless of what measures are introduced.

Furlough IMO may lead to the loss of more white collar jobs than were immediately necessary. Longer term, it will reflect the more WFH approach that professional service firms are going to take.

Companies that are still running through this time will use furlough as a ‘soft exit’. They will furlough staff to see if they can do without them - essentially as the first part of a redundancy programme. Many of the furloughed staff will be those who can’t WFH and it reflects the fact that we expect never to return to the same working patterns and office life.

Max 3 months the Treasury will pay for this though. After May businesses will need to make decisions.

I reckon for the majority of workers they will be furloughed for the full 12 weeks with others eg hospitality industry will be furloughed longer. I reckon, pubs and restaurants will be the last places to open back up to stop people socialising.

Dh, (tradesman) and ds and I (both hospitality & both students ) have all been furloughed, taking a 20%cut for us is manageable as we aren’t spending extra money on newspapers, coffee out, lunches etc.

The taxpayer sadly cannot allow firms to delay decisions indefinitely.

It may be that the Treasury offers an extra few weeks to the hospitality industry (just a guess) but I don’t seem them offering this to everyone. Why offer it to e.g accountants who can WFH?

The government can delay recession, and soften it, but they cannot pay us all to avoid it forever.