We need to talk about symptoms (of lack thereof) and transmission mechanisms

[xtinak]

In my observation, some major problems in managing this pandemic are:

• We have been focusing on too narrow a profile of symptoms
• We have an unclear picture of asymptomatic transmission, including people who are never symptomatic
• We remain unclear on the main mechanisms of transmission - we don't know what the main drivers are, and where they are taking place

The result of this is that:

• Chains of transmission are not accurately identified
• Individuals can't take the appropriate action to limit transmission, such as by enacting self isolation
• Lockdowns may be poorly targeted to the key drivers of transmission

This therefore means:

• Continued spread despite wide ranging measures
• Economic disruption some of which may not be necessary

Testing is one part of the solution. So is understanding this virus/disease better. We need both. Testing and understanding interact.

But, even without testing we can do better, with better protocols.

Any thoughts on this?

They do know what main drivers are; being coughed on. face to face contact.

The European CDC has called the reports about asymptomatic-transmission being possible or even important "suboptimal" which is polite speak for "We don't think it actually happened, or at least not very much."

There are a zillion teams who will do evaluate afterwards which lockdown measures were most effective. So many groups are gathering those data that i've taken it off my research ideas list.

I'm as unhappy as you are, this whole situation sucks.

Of course the situation sucks.

I think asymptomatic transmission has been underestimated. There are numerous sources on this: abcnews.go.com/Health/asymptomatic-transmission-coronavirus/story?id=69901758

Obviously I've not studied these things directly, but because of the way exponential growth works, even a small proportion has a huge impact.

I think this study will be interesting:
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/virologists-to-turn-germany-worst-hit-district-into-coronavirus-laboratory

I'm just going to reignite this as I feel concerned at how little coverage it's getting.

www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/1-in-4-people-who-get-the-coronavirus-may-show-no-symptoms-but-still-be-contagious-heres-the-latest-research-on-asymptomatic-carriers/ar-BB125ZXd?li=AA5204

It is getting a bit more coverage now with the potentially changing CDC recommendation to wear face coverage in public.