May be stupid but long term, is it even avoidable?

[TellLucyILoveHer]

This may be a stupid question but it's something I don't really understand. My country is on lockdown and they say the peak will be in a few weeks from now. I'm not in a vulnerable group but I am a single mum of a toddler and baby so I really don't want to get sick. Right now I'm not going out at all. All food is delivered. But eventually I'll have to go out, right? I think we can stay home until after the peak (early May), but then what? It will still be long before a vaccine is available and just because the peak has passed won't mean the virus is gone!

So I'm wondering, what happens? If school restarts or I start going to supermarkets, parks, etc. again, I'll presumably end up catching it? Is there any chance many of us will actually just never get it? How does that work?

Herd immunity is predicted once 60% of population have had it. After that the virus struggles to spread around.

Therefore you are likely to meet the virus at some point, and the government plan is to slow the spread to ensure there is sufficient NHS resource for the unfortunate ones who need hospital care. It's a risk, but life is a risk. If you're healthy it is a very low risk.

Therefore you are likely to meet the virus at some point, and the government plan is to slow the spread

Well, that would suggest 40% of us won't ever get it then? That's quite a high proportion!

I've worried about this. I'm high risk as are many people with bad asthma.

Its all very well staying in for 3 months, but will I catch it and die after that??? Ive freaked out :(

The likeliest scenario is you’ll get it but it won’t be particularly bad, a mild flu of a kind you’ve probably had before. Some younger, otherwise healthy people are getting it badly but it’s still the exception that breaks the rule at the moment

@TellLucyILoveHer - 60% = More likely than not to meet the virus.

Lockdown isnt really to stop the spread,more to slow it down enough that the NHS can cope, stagger the cases if you will

The likeliest scenario is you’ll get it but it won’t be particularly bad, a mild flu of a kind you’ve probably had before

I know, it's not like I'm quaking in my boots or anything, I'm just curious about how it will all play out long-term, I guess.

Another example. My toddler loves soft play and play centres, stuff like that. Basically the worst places for virus spreading. Now even after the peak, we'll have to avoid those for a while, right? But... how long? Are we all just waiting to reach this 60% mark? When will that be?

I've been wondering the same, what happens when every thing returns to semi normal. The virus is still there and people still aren't being tested in the numbers they should be so anyone anywhere could be circulating it undetected as let's face it theres some still ignoring the lockdown rules. Like you being a single mum i can't afford to get deathly ill with this and the future is so uncertain. Fills me with so much worry i don't even watch the news anymore or read the news. My mental health just can't cope with it

Remember the reason for lockdowns is to “Protect the NHS”, in the UK government’s words. That translates as, to ensure that there is a hospital bed, enough staff and potentially a ventilator available for you IF you need it at any point (but you most likely won’t if you’re younger and have no underlying conditions).

I think as a single mum of a baby and toddler you’re being wise to lock down. Given your age and health you’d be unlikely to be ill enough to require hospitalisation but you might well be too ill to care for such young children effectively. In a couple of months time there will be more people who’ve had it and are at lest temporarily immune, which might give you more childcare options to call on, and at the very least your children will be that bit older.

The plan isn't to suppress it until a vaccine is found - you can't shut everything down and expect everyone to live under lockdown for a year or more. Already in Italy (four weeks in) there is bubbling unrest, not surprising when people are running out of food and money.

The idea (as I understand it) is to create several smaller waves of infection rather than one huge tsunami, in order to relieve pressure on the NHS. So there will be some loosening of restrictions for a while, then they'll be tightened again, and repeat until a vaccine is available. In that time there may be enough infections to create a level of herd immunity also.

Early predictions were that up to 80% of the population would eventually catch it - I'm not sure if that's changed.

Do you remember the speech about turning the tap on and off? That's all we are doing - trying to keep the numbers needing healthcare manageable for the nhs. The plan is for most of us to get it, just not all at the same time.

I understand that we are just flattening the curve so the nhs can cope. I want to delay getting it at least until all the beds and ventilators are in place.

Remember the reason for lockdowns is to “Protect the NHS”, in the UK government’s words. That translates as, to ensure that there is a hospital bed, enough staff and potentially a ventilator available for you IF you need it at any point (but you most likely won’t if you’re younger and have no underlying conditions).

Exactly this - if you get the virus, even if you are quite poorly with it your are likely to survive IF there is enough equipment, space, staff in hospitals which is why we are trying to slow the spread so most of us can get it at different times and recover from it.

Would you eat from a bag of skittles knowing that 1 in the bag would kill you and 5 say would make you need serious hospital care?

I think bandying around that most people will be okay knowing that out of those of us that are high risk many of us would die is awful. Even 1 in 500 would be 2 for every high school in england.

Given that if were shielding currently the survival rate is lower are uou jusg ahppy to accept a huge number of deaths!?

If the plan is for most of us ti get it that really is terrifying. Do all of us asthmatics/cancer patients/transplant patients need to stay in wih our families for years then!?!?

No, Squashed, the idea is that your chance of catching it will be massively reduced once enough of those not at risk have already had it and recovered: they will probably be immune so won't spread it so it will die out.

I think group immunity comes when around 65% of us have had it and are immune. The virus won’t be able to spread easily anymore.

Not 100% sure but I think it would mean after the three months are over those who are more at risk will have better care because the nhs won’t be overwhelmed with larger numbers hence the reason to self isolate now for the majority and keep the virus within the home and recover

Right, but what about non-at-risk people who aren't especially terrified but would just not prefer to risk getting sick. Just like I'd prefer not to get the flu or any other vaguely serious illness?

All I can do is wait and hope I'm not in the 60-65% needed before it starts disappearing?

@telllucyiloveher I think that is probably the majority of people ! Hope indeed :-)

the idea is to stagger the cases so NHS can cope. if NHS gets overwhelmed then we can start to see people dying who in other circumstances might not have died.
the flatter the line the better.

for example, a lot of younger people need hospital help as well, with some support lets say most would recover but if huge spike in numbers come in that would mean that a lot of people wont even make it to hospital so would lose life that otherwise could have been saved.