Unpredictable nature of this virus

[Saturdayk]

Sorry if this has been posted before.
I’m wondering if there’s any research yet on a typical pattern of this virus or how it behaves?
Watching the media reports, it just seems so random how some people are ok and others with no health conditions are (rarely) dying or seriously unwell?
I am so confused - does this seem to just come down to who’s immune system fights it better then?

There is some research in the process.

Currently they are looking at ACE2 receptors and levels of certain white blood cells.

They also have noted blood groups of people and they have found a pattern.

As of yet it could be numbers are still too low and it anecdotal. But there is certainly genetic research which may produce some information in the future.

No - nobody is doing any research into the virus at all.

There are always outliers - people who die from viruses even though they’re not in the typical age group or at risk demographic. As far as I can see this virus is no different.

Radio 4’s More or Less had a very interesting piece on last Friday with Professor David Spiegelhalter who explained that the risk of dying from Coronavirus pretty much exactly matched the risk of dying in the next couple of years (can’t remember the exact time frame). So if you’re 30 and in excellent health, not overweight and a non-smoker, your risk of dying in the next couple of years is very low - not non-existent, but it would be unusual and noteworthy if you died. However, if you’re 85 and have multiple health problems your risk of dying in the next couple of years is quite high and sad though it would be for loved ones, it probably wouldn’t make the news unless you were very well-known.

The difference with this situation is that potentially we could have many of the deaths which would probably have happened in the next year or so anyway, compressed into a much shorter time frame which would overwhelm the NHS.

Thank you for the replies that’s interesting. I just had no idea about whether this was how typical viruses affected people so that’s put some perspective in to my thinking!
Also very interesting that blood groups are potentially affected differently!

@bluewafflewithmayo If that was meant sarcastically I don’t feel it was warranted. I’m not suggesting nobody has bothered to research. I wondered if they had found anything concrete to date

The thing about 'those people would have died anyway soon/probably of flu' as if this is nothing much to worry about and just mopping up the population last gaspers in a more efficient time frame is that is might be a comforting thought if you're not personally in that group, but no, not all the people becoming seriously ill would, and the vulnerable groups have all have annual flu shots. The news on Monday showed an interview with a respiratory consultant who said that he had seen two serious flu epidemics in the last fifteen years, and yet never seen anything like this.

There has been discussion around for those who seem to have severe versions of the illness, the immune system over responds instead of under responds. Cytokine storm is worth looking up if you're interested.

There is a lot of hope within the ME community that research into Covid will also shed light onto why some people don't recover from serious viruses and spend the rest of their lives debilitated. As that's also thought to be genetic. So many are keeping an eye on that.

At the moment it does appear to affect people indiscriminately, but the variations are bound to become clearer in time as the research is carried out. To me it seems like a spectrum, the illness is very much more specific to the individual and ranges from no symptoms at all (perhaps as many as 50-70% of infections) to borderline asymptomatic/very mild, through the full range of mild-moderate-severe.

Some people are disbelieving if you say you think you've had a mild case recently/currently and they only believe in positive test results, because they don't know what it's like to experience it mildly. They see this in black and white, ie hospital cases in the news vs people who supposedly 'haven't had it'. It's far more widespread than the official figures suggest.