We should not compare ourselves to Italy

[Mumlove5]

A lot of people are in fear because of what is happening in Italy and it is devastating.

However, Italy is a different country. Every winter and flu season they have a high mortality rate because of their demographics and because of high pollution in the Lombardy region.

A short clip to help:

“ Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly”

In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. Influenza epidemics have been indicated as one of the potential determinants of such an excess. The objective of our study was to estimate the influenza-attributable contribution to excess mortality during the influenza seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17 in Italy.

Methods
We used the EuroMomo and the FluMomo methods to estimate the annual trend of influenza-attributable excess death rate by age group. Population data were provided by the National Institute of Statistics, data on influenza like illness and confirmed influenza cases were provided by the National Institutes of Health. As an indicator of weekly influenza activity (IA) we adopted the Goldstein index, which is the product of the percentage of patients seen with influenza-like illness (ILI) and percentage of influenza-positive specimens, in a given week.

Results
We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly. However children less than 5 years old also reported a relevant influenza attributable excess death rate in the 2014/15 and 2016/17 seasons (1.05/100,000 and 1.54/100,000 respectively).

Conclusions
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy. In conclusion, the unpredictability of the influenza virus continues to present a major challenge to health professionals and policy makers. Nonetheless, vaccination remains the most effective means for reducing the burden of influenza, and efforts to increase vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccine strategies (such as vaccinating healthy children) should be considered to reduce the influenza attributable excess mortality experienced in Italy and in Europe in the last seasons.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

Bump

Why are our death rates pretty much exactly tracking their curve so far then?

Agree Op, it seems our speed of cases, the acceleration, is different to Italy, hence why the scientists who advise the government feel we are not tracking them, it’s that speed of cases that in part dictates how many hospitalisations and then subsequent deaths.

In addition Italy is a very different country, with an older demographic and the worst air quality in Europe. The social culture is also very different to ours. So you would expect it to be different.

That doesn't exactly give comfort, OP.

the UK in recent years has attributed flu deaths in numbers averaging 17000, with a high of 28,000 (though worth noting it was exceptionally low in 18/19)

Watch the clip from Stanford.
Every country is not on Italy’s path.

Its also interesting that there isnt a reduce air polution recommendation.

BTW - the >28 k figure is from 14/15 when that paper says Italy has 20k

So if that were the paradigm, we can expect 40% more than Italy, which is not exactly a comforting thought.

Every country is not on Italy’s path.

Of course they're not, but as far as i've seen no one has claimed they are.

At the moment the national statistics show that across Europe the average deaths for previous years have been no lower than what we are experiencing now

That’s got to be some positive news

This is positive news. There are Epidemiologists telling us that. It’s not all doom and gloom.

As said, I’m not sure it’s about deaths alone, it’s also about speed of infection through the population, and then the demographics of those who get it.. That’s what dictates the differential. And that’s why we aren’t tracking italy ultimately.

@Eggcited

It seems there are a lot of mums on here overly anxious about what’s happening in Italy and comparing them to us.

I think people are in fear because of what’s happening everywhere not just Italy. Spain, Iran and the US aren’t exactly having an easy ride.

Also for the love of god, this is not flu its viral pneumonia, SARS 2 so pretty much invalidates the argument right off the bat. No pun intended.

Every country is not on Italy’s path.

We won't have the same death rate as other countries for a range of reasons (many not in our favour) but the general progression of the disease is absolutely following broadly the same pattern in every country except two: China and South Korea.

They both took drastic action to arrest the spread.

This graph is a really effective way of seeing whether a particular country is following the curve.

Very, very sadly I think that some of the best things about Italy have contributed to the spread of this fucking awful virus - a far more tactile, social culture which applies to all ages, and older relatives living in family homes more than care facilities or alone. The U.K. just doesn’t do human contact and interaction to that extent.

To clarify the death rate differs across the age range. So you see a higher death rate across say eighty year olds plus that you do across the thirty year olds plus.

So how quickly it spreads throughout your population and the demographics of the people who become infected, impacts on your death rate, in this Italy’s stats are very different to ours, hence why the trajectory would not be the same.

There is a lot of detail in the numbers that can’t be simply understood by looking at death rates, you need to look at rate of infection and you need to look at demographics, then forecast it.

I've seen the comparisons to Italy, however I was referring to your point that not every country is on the same path as Italy.

I appreciate I may have missed it, but as far as i've seen no one has made this claim.

Also it's not just mums on this site. There are plenty of dads, and those without children.

It seems there are a lot of mums on here overly anxious about what’s happening in Italy and comparing them to us

This is both patronising and inaccurate. Let me just reword that for you.

It seems there are lots of PEOPLE worldwide that feel anxious about the coronavirus.

And not without good reason it would seem. I don't think anyone will find your comparisons or lack of to Italy especially helpful, I am not sure anyone has a fixed view on trajectory at this stage.

Most people on MN are getting on with their lives in an orderly and calm manner, and are not especially over anxious, but thanks for your concern.

Interesting point in that first clip about Italy admitting people to hospital with mild cases in the early days. We haven't done that.

I agree OP.
Our curve only tracks Italy if you start the curve at when we both reached 10 deaths.
Quite a few are moving away from that, to show the rate at 50 deaths (think that was the graph shown by Patrick Valance the other day). I cant remember why (sorry not long got up....bit of brain fog).
But there are some people who cling to that first graph like a life raft and point blank refuse to see any other viewpoint. Berating posters as idiots if they disagree.

It simply can’t logically be the same as Italy. For the one reason that our demographics are different.

If the death rate for us, was the same as Italy, then it would mean the virus had mutated and the death rate was higher in a younger age range. Logically a younger population will have a lower overall death rate.

You then need to feed in speed of infection, it’s way way more complex than that, and it’s being done properly by the scientists but they plot it with rate of infection, age range, under lying conditions etc and then forecast and compare.

Logically if we were the same as Italy, then the disease for us would be more fatal. There is no indication of this, so as such, we would simply not have the same trajectory as Italy.

SO if the Uk sould not compare themselves to Italy why are they building new hospitals and actully doing similar things to what Italy has been doing ? Sorry genuine question ?

This isn't a flu.

Expecting countries to follow the same curve is not sensible.

Issues like rate of smoking, average age, domestic set-up, living conditions, diet, general level of fitness and the medical care available will all affect mortality rate. There are dozens of variables.

54Eggcited

Every country is not on Italy’s path.

Of course they're not, but as far as i've seen no one has claimed they are. confused"

Piers Morgan has been intimating we are, every morning for over a week