How long will the vulnerable groups and the over-70s have to stay in lockdown?

[Goodnighttv]

I’ve read a lot of threads about how things could potentially play out over the next few months, but this is the thing I’m still not sure about.

Surely if we’re adamant that the ‘high risk’ groups need to completely protect themselves from any risk of catching COVID-19 until a vaccine is available, that would mean these groups having to self isolate until... whenever a vaccine is signed off, even if we’re talking 12-18 months? Is that right?

I have several close family members who fall into this category and I’m concerned that this is what we could be facing. Have I missed something or is this correct?

I’m in the vulnerable group and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s extended beyond 12 weeks, possibly to September?

Strawberry that’s what I thought, but then lots of folk seem to think this will be flaring up again as we go into next winter, which could be cause for further lockdowns?

Could vulnerable people and their families really have to do this for the rest of the year? If there’s no choice, then obviously, but it’s almost too mad to get my head around.

Logically, it's got to be until there's a vaccine. DH's response when I mentioned this was short, to the point and ended with 'off' There will be arguements ahead.

Or until herd immunity is achieved by other means. It's a bit of a guessing game really, I guess we hope that it won't take so long for a vaccine. I think they have been able to analyse it now, which means they know how it behaves and therefore a step closer to knowing how to provide vaccinations against it. Even at best that won't be until the summer though.

*argument not arguement. Blame the wine.

Bamboozled yep, I feel you.

I’m also concerned about my DC not being able to see their grandparents and if it will impact them psychologically (they have gone from seeing them 4-5 times a week to not at all, it’s only been 3 weeks for us but one of them is too young to understand and misses her DGP already, without knowing why she suddenly can’t see them, or even go out etc).

What’s the point in repeatedly starting these threads? No one knows.

Someone thank you for that, that’s a bit more of a positive slant on it than I’m able to come up with myself!

Bamboozled wine is the only thing keeping me going right now!

As long as it takes...?

I think this is a very reasonable question. I don't know the answer though! Logically yes until we have a vaccine, or achieve herd immunity.

It's surely the decision of those in the 'shielded' group? They're not more likely to get the disease, just that the implications are likely to be more serious. So, their decision at the end of the day. This is only guidance too. Those showing symptoms an going out - a different matter. Clearly those people are then risking the health of others. But when you're risking only your own health, especially if you choose to decline hospital treatment - up to you.

Isn't it more about 'flattening the curve' and protecting the most vulnerable whilst we are doing that, so that, if/when the most vulnerable do get it, they are more likely to have appropriate NHS care?

@Goodnighttv

what you have missed (I think) is, once most of the people have herd immunity, the virus will have nowhere to survive and will die out. Then the vulnerable people can come out safely, since the virus is not around anymore. Every now and then a small outbreak might occur somewhere but it won't be able to spread very far before dying out if most of us are immune. If a vulnerable person is unlucky and happens to be where an outbreak occurs, then that's not good, but the probability should be low.

I'm bloody Hoping it's not till sept ! DH has 6/9 months to live (lung cancer) and is currently 'alright' and we are supposed to be 'enjoying' this time and making memories

notapizzaeater for you and DH.

I'm so sorry @notapizzaeater and I hope with all my heart you get to make those memories. Things aren't that bad for DH yet but we do know there's limited time. And I also know that because of that he's going to say he's not prepared to spend that time permanently caged up in a small flat. Stubborn, bloody-minded git.