What's the end game?

[CochonDinde]

Is it to try and delay the virus until we know more about it and/or have a vaccine? They keep stating 'flatten the curve' but won't that only work if we're on lockdown/social distancing restrictions indefinitely? Obviously the ideal scenario would be to rid all cases of the virus, but that's again obviously extremely unlikely.

Please note: I'm asking out of genuine want to understand - definitely not questioning the current measures imposed upon us. Apols if I sound a bit dim, my brain is wholly frazzled of late

I don’t think anyone knows do they?
Slow it down till 80% of population have had it?
Wait for a cure or vaccine?
Who knows.

I've been wondering about this. I'm v vulnerable and not in the best of health (only 42) and am so worried I might not survive it.

I'm wondering if once the peak is flattened (and who knows if it will be until a percentage dies?!?!) and people start to go out - surely I am still at risk. Does my whole family have to stay in indefinitely....!?

I think it's to basically limit the strain on the NHS and hold out long enough until there's a vaccine or other treatment available.

It's going to be a long ride though.

It’s unknown. That’s the bit that is scary

I've been wondering this. Once lockdown is over, won't we just be back to square 1?

To me it seems as though we are basically on hold until we can answer the following questions:

• What is the death rate (by demographic)?
• How long does immunity last once you've had it?
• What is the timeline for a vaccine / scalable treatment?

Once we know the answers to those questions we can actually figure out the right strategy. Hopefully in the next few weeks we'll have a clearer idea of number 1 and maybe number 2.

Some countries have successfully suppressed it. I'm assuming they'll just block flights arriving.. but I'm also doubtful they'll achieve this? I'm so glad johnson & johnson have pledged a 'not for profit' vaccine, in any case. It will maybe stimulate competition!

I think the modelling is based on lots of us getting it but at a level the NHS can manage. They won’t keep these measures in place till the vaccine, rightly or wrongly.

We also need to know how many people have it mildly, and get immunity that way. A study from Iceland suggests that a few people have it so mildly they don’t know they’ve had it, but not many. So many unknowns at the moment.

One of the papers the government used for advice modelled an on-off lockdown. Relaxing rules when it got low and then increasing them when it gets high again. Something like a month on month off. But the details would change as more data comes in.

I think contact tracing is being seriously looked at too- paper from Oxford about using phones to trace routes like in Asia.

Either way we need to keep it below NHS capacity until either herd immunity kicks in or a vaccine is found.

It will be interesting to see if things level off a bit this week- that might indicate that the social distancing started on 16th March does actually work. It might be an alternative to full lockdown.

I think the end game is partly just to avoid being like Italy-it's an avoidance of something that seemed definitely like to happen if we carried on as we were.

Aiming for something definite is trickier-there are lots of moving parts-test kits, success of the lockdown, treatment options, vaccine developments, social unrest.

Officially I believe the line is to allow little relaxations on lockdown in waves to allow people a semblance of normality that won't result in more people needing ventilation than we have ventilators. But to be confident enough to do that, a lot of other plans would need to have worked out successfully-like the lockdown having averted a crisis, the mortality rate not being dreadful, the virus not having mutated, testing for NHS workers and the wider public so we have a better idea who is actually contributing to community transmission when they leave the house and who is not. As more people slowly build up immunity-IF that exists for any length of time which isn't proven-lockdown will perhaps apply to fewer and fewer people.

Such interesting and intelligent posts here, thank you all! I need to reread and absorn when I'm less knackered