Immunity passports

[hopsalong]

Enjoyed reading this article in the Guardian about a trial of immunity passports in Germany. www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/immunity-passports-could-speed-up-return-to-work-after-covid-19
That seems like a very good idea. I hope we will have antibody tests soon and can try a similar thing.

But, halfway through, I became very confused. One expert says that 'the worse case scenario – based on what is known about immunity to coronaviruses that cause common colds – is that former patients would have only partial resistance for about three months'. Even SARS, the article says, gives resistance for only a year.

Forgetting the question of the immunity passports, for a moment... doesn't that mean that someone who gets covid-19 badly now and is treated in hospital, on a respirator etc, might only get it again before Christmas and have the same outcome all over again??

I know people have talked of a second spike in cases, but I assumed that was with NEW patients. Do the models include the possibility that we might all just get this virus over and over again, requiring the same expensive and difficult to provide treatment every time? Would a vaccine give longer immunity? Would be grateful for anyone who can help me to understand this.

I'm not an expert, but I understand that even though the virus changes you will typically handle the new version better than you did the first one.

Unless it's changed so much you don't recognise it at all.

So there's some hope there, but so many variables you can't bank on it.

I've read that if you have a mild response you are likely to only have partial immunity for a few months and if you have a more moderate/severe response you are likely to have immunity for longer - up to a year. Once enough people have immunity we will get some benefit from herd immunity as enough people will have overlapping immunity to stop it from spreading like it is now. Plus the vaccine will be available in 12-18 months. Realistically I think we are looking at that timescale until we can resume life as normal.