A bit of good news-early indications that outbreak may be slowing in the UK

[Thorilicious]

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-early-signs-outbreak-slowing-in-uk-says-imperial-college-professor-11965624

How? We've not even had a full week of lockdown, yet.

We are not testing anyone, so fuck knows how they actually know.

I guess there might be a small slowdown (theoretically) because we did "social distancing" for a week before the lockdown. You would expect that to make a bit of difference. And pubs and shops closed 8 days ago.

Hospital admissions and deaths

I know lots of people will be pessimistic about this, but I say, YAY! even if it’s just for today, this is good news! Social distancing started over a week ago - was it two?? I’ve lost track of the days. Perhaps that’s made a difference?

Isn't it all a bit early we're supposed to the peak a few weeks after serious restrictions so it's going to get worse over the next couple of weeks then hopefully slow.

Dont hold your breath, things can change every day. We will have a bit of a picture in another two weeks but if everyone relaxes it will rear up again. Predictions have so many variables, we have a while to go yet before we know anything

I heard this today too and as it’s a top epidemiologist I’m taking it as truth until proven otherwise, so thinking of it as a positive for now!

Thank you for sharing this. I think we could all do a bit of positivity at the moment. And this guy is after all the man in charge of advising the government on how to respond. So slightly more valuable than most ‘experts’ the media wheel out.

Like a PP said, even if it’s just fir today - yay!

(I’m a bit over the MN doomsayers predicting a trillion deaths and twenty more years of lockdown based on precisely no evidence )

What about the clocks changing? The weekend was an hour shorter than usual which will have impacted the figures.

I am also taking the positive and running with it. After all the doom and gloom lately I need something positive to focus on. I will still continue to strictly follow the guidelines especially as cases are increasing quickly in my area but it at least looks hopeful that our cases might not be exploding like they have in Italy.

From what I understand this just relates to the number of new cases of (suspected) COVID being treated in hospitals. And it’s just that the number of new admissions is slightly lower than previous days. So deaths and hospital admissions will continue to rise for weeks, but in a flatter ‘curve’ than without intervention, which started about three weeks ago with handwashing advice, companies providing wfh and large event cancellations. All in line with what these interventions were meant to achieve as far as I can tell. If it continues, it’s good news that the curve is flattening and thus likely result in a lower peak.

Dr Jenny Harries has said she expects it to increase before we know what impact the lock down has had.

But that doesn't mean it definitely will. Lets just have a little bit of hope before everyone pisses on it.

Speculation and gossip cobbled together. There are also reports of deaths not yet recorded as caused by the virus. We need facts and not endless space-filling rubbish.

The rate of increase in positive testing has slowed/reduced the last two days (disclaimer I don't have today's figures yet) as for "How! We've only had one week of lockdown" maybe, but we have had a few weeks of other interventions, such as self isolating etc.
Ffs it's not all about lockdown
(Sorry bit of a rant but whenever this is raised the lockdown date is always shouted about at the OP like it's the only thing we have ever done)

I have close family who are nurses, and am worried about them each day.
I'm not saying everything will go back to normal next week, and I do appreciate the situation can change quickly, but it's nice to have a small positive for once.