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Question over true death rate

12 replies

esjee · 30/03/2020 10:46

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/coronavirus-questions-true-death-toll-london-hospital-records/

I'm not sure what is meant here by a time lag. Surely the number of deaths reported is either accurate for the past 24 hours or it isn't. Are they saying partial figures are being recorded?

OP posts:
FatAlbert · 30/03/2020 10:48

As far as I know there is a time lag for confirmation of COVID-19, so it may be a few days before the true death toll is known.

esjee · 30/03/2020 10:51

I thought at last confirmation deaths released on any day were from 5pm 2 days ago to 5pm yesterday, but it now sound like the figures released each day will be incomplete. I don't recl that being made clear.

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MetalDog · 30/03/2020 10:54

I think there are the numbers recorded vs the numbers released to the public, yes.

There seems to be a time lag (up to 13 days so far in one case I believe) to allow certain things to happen. One thing mentioned is ensuring family members are informed first.

Another is wanting to ensure figures are entirely accurate, which makes me wonder if sometimes a second Covid19 test is ordered?

IceKitten · 30/03/2020 10:54

I find that a worrying article. It seems to suggest it's not just a time lag of a day or two (understandable) but consistent under reporting?

esjee · 30/03/2020 11:02

It sounds like the daily stats aren't accurate, so some from days and days ago will only be reported today for example. I mean that's fine, but at least say that up front!

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PeterWeg · 30/03/2020 11:05

"Are they saying partial figures are being recorded?"
Deaths outside hospital without a test are excluded. So the true death rate could be several times what is publicised, but it will be old people who would die anyway soon, so thats fine.

meemaw12 · 30/03/2020 11:16

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Baaaahhhhh · 30/03/2020 11:23

It all catches up though, so trends will still be visible. I believe in some cases there are multiple tests to ensure recording is accurate.

The very young girl who died the other day, apparently didn't have Covid in the end, but died of a heart attack, the parents going to press too soon. So, if true, that shows how careful you have to be.

There is also a difference in country reporting. Germany for example as only showing those who died "of" Covid, not "with" Covid. So if they presented with many co-morbidities, or extreme old age, even if they happen to have Covid, that is not shown as the primary cause of death. Whereas in Italy, everyone who is dying is basically dying of Covid if they are confirmed to have it in their system, regardless of whether they were at deaths door anyway.

esjee · 30/03/2020 11:26

How are Germany determining difference between 'of' and 'with'. Surely thats not easy to decipher unless someone has already been confirmed as having a short time to live? Unless it's just the case that people with comorbidities get discounted even if they could have lived years without contracting it?

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Tootletum · 30/03/2020 11:32

The Germany comorbidiities thing has apparently been denied in Der Spiegel and ministers have been emphatic they're counting all deaths, so I think you can consider it debunked.

Barracker · 30/03/2020 11:37

Does anyone have a share token for the article please?

florriepeck · 30/03/2020 11:59

I read in the Sunday paper yesterday that COVID 19 has been classified as a notifiable disease, so a positive test result and subsequent death would mean that it's recorded as a cause of death, along with co .morbidities.
Is this correct?
So, people who die with the virus might not have died entirely due to the virus.

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