Prof Neil Ferguson says "UK infection rate may be slowing"

[Pishposhpashy]

On Radio 4 this morning. Was anyone listening?

Didn’t hear, but good news if true.

The guardian is reporting it but I can't find a link.

I wonder how he can know that when we’re not doing widespread testing?

Does he mean there has been a reduction in CV cases admitted to hospital?

The word "may" means nothing though, does it?
At this stage, with testing being done still only on those presenting at hospitals with symptoms how can they say that?
How can they even know? They must mean "fewer people are arriving at hospital to be tested" because that's the only factual data that can be provided.
I imagine also, in the first few weeks, so maybe 3-4 weeks ago, more people with symptoms turned up at hospitals to be tested. Then the govt said if you have symptoms stay at home, those people aren't being counted anywhere.
So yes, it looks like good news, but it has to be an unproven and indeed unprovable at this stage, comment.

This guy needs to stop talking.

I think he means that rates of people being admitted to hospital with the infection are slowing. There will be a lag with deaths so wouldn't expect those to slow yet.

This thing comes in waves.

Next wave is the mother's Day wave which comes in the next week or two.

It will decrease when we start behaving.

This isn't surprising since a lot of people started following the handwashing advice and social distancing to some extent 3-4 weeks ago. It doesn't have to be 100% compliance. The people that are seen socialising in the news are the exception. A lot of us were just quietly getting on with things.

@newjez going by that logic it won’t be decreasing anytime soon then!!

"rates of people being admitted to hospital with the infection are slowing"

Yep, that would be a reliable indicator

Needs a week's figures before I'll let myself believe it though
False hope would be horrible

“This isn't surprising since a lot of people started following the handwashing advice and social distancing to some extent 3-4 weeks ago. It doesn't have to be 100% compliance. The people that are seen socialising in the news are the exception. A lot of us were just quietly getting on with things.”

This probably was enough. Not a complete lockdown. We should have looked at the countries who have succeeded with just these measures.

ironic isn't it - when he says hundreds of thousands of ppl are going to die mn lap it up as gospel. When he says something less alarming it's all we need more data, too many variables, no he's wrong, we MUST doomed!

Only time will tell. I wonder if he's more worried about being right originally (horrendous death toll) or wrong (the man responsible for so much suffering for the next 20 years) ... I'm sure the knowledge that it was all down to modelling with high levels of uncertainty built in at all stages will be a comfort to us all.

Has the 5,700 deaths guy recanted yet? How about the Oxford group?

"We should have looked at the countries who have succeeded with just these measures."

Which countries ?
We don't know yet whether the very few that are not applying strict measures have "succeeded"
e.g. Sweden have rising cases and don't yet know if the virus would get under control

Also, Sweden has considerable differences to the UK - e.g. much lower population density, well-funded health service - which gives them a better chance of getting away without lockdown

No country except China - with draconian meaures - has reached its peak yet

We couldn't wait and see which countries have massive death rates and which don't

• because by that time if light^-touch measures don't work, the UK would suffer a huge number of deaths

The Imperial College estimate with only moderate measures was ¼ million extra Uk deaths

Gambling that they are wrong would be a terrible responsibility for any PM

"when he says hundreds of thousands of ppl are going to die mn lap it up as gospel. "

What are the consequences of either of his predictions being wrong ?

The consequences of Social Distancing for 3 weeks if unnecessary are mainly the economic cost, not ¼ or ½ million deaths

The PM & Cabinet were presented with the Imperial College figures of mass deaths and didn't dare take the risk

We've seen premature claims before that cases & deaths in Italy were levelling off, but then they rose again;
it is only in the last week that we can say this is a reliable trend - still at too high a level though

Gambling that they are wrong would be a terrible responsibility for any PM

^ that I agree with - whichever way this goes BJ is going to be hated for eternity, I'm sure that will provide Corbyn with some comfort!

Yes 5,700 deaths man has recanted this morning - front page of the Times

The consequences of Social Distancing for 3 weeks if unnecessary are mainly the economic cost, not ¼ or ½ million deaths

^that is naive in the extreme - this is not three weeks of social distancing. This is the removal of our civil liberties & confinement to our homes for an unknown period of time.

It is utter economic collapse that will devastate this country for decades to come.

I would be amazed if we didn't have an excess of deaths rivalling the worst Imperial prediction over the next 5-10 years.

I'm off to queue for food now.

I dont think it will be decades to come. I live with an economist and he thinks it will bounce back quickly once normal life resumes. His colleagues agree.

'May', why not just speak only when you have been able to establish facts. 'May' is meaningless.

@Laniakea. No need to be dramatic after a single weeks indoors! Christ you don't know the meaning if having your civil liberties taken away. Try living in a country that actually does that! You'd soon realise how silly you sound.

I don’t know why everyone is obsessing over the stats. They are inaccurate.
My hospital had 7 deaths last week (over the space of a week)
All of these were included in Saturdays data as the results were not confirmed until then.
We also had received 5 negative results which later turned out to be positive.

The testing rate is so pathetically low that I don't see how anyone can say anything confidently about the infection rate. Boris told us we'd be testing at least 10,000 a day by now, the reality is that it's around 6000. What the hell is happening?

There is a significant delay in test results so people are dying before the results come back.

@Laniakea yeah I think "recant" is the right word here! Last guy who was asked to recant on a scientific theory was Galilei , that went well.