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Covid

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A more useful statistic would be

14 replies

Bridecilla · 30/03/2020 00:35

a comparison of average deaths per day pre and during Covid19 surely?

The French / Italian numbers are terrifying (and ours are heading that way)

However I genuinely have no idea how many people usually die in each country per day and how that number is affected by covid19

Is there any way to compare, say, the last 3 years' March 29th average death count for the UK with yesterday's actual total death count?

OP posts:
ralphwreckedit · 30/03/2020 00:36

It's about 500k a yr but varies through the seasons

BuffaloCauliflower · 30/03/2020 00:37

Read this, what deaths were recording and how matters. And no, we’re not having more deaths than is usual, at the moment at least

www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

BuffaloCauliflower · 30/03/2020 00:38

We’re recording*

MoltonSilver · 30/03/2020 01:06

I thought that the deaths that are being reported are only the deaths related to corona virus. The usual amount of deaths are still happening but they're not part of the figures.

When make shift temporary morgues are being created its a sure sign that there are more than normal.

fallfallfall · 30/03/2020 01:12

i think the problem is that people generally die throughout the year. with the virus spreading quickly many will die all within a short period of time. and yes many will have been in the last 18 months of their lives.
as for the morgue again it's the numbers and i believe the body remains infectious after death for some time and certain measures which are more time consuming will interfere.

jhj67 · 30/03/2020 08:04

@Bridecilla

Is there any way to compare, say, the last 3 years' March 29th average death count for the UK with yesterday's actual total death count?

there is this, statistics for the period Jan-March

www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

"Nembro, one of the municipalities most affected by Covid-19, should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. But the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31"

Plexie · 30/03/2020 08:14

Office of National Statistics gives weekly figures of the number of deaths registered (ie not the date of death itself) for England and Wales. I haven't looked to see if Scotland and NI produce similar stats.

In March 2020 the figure is over 11,000 per week.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

TheCanterburyWhales · 30/03/2020 08:16

The "it's only flu and I have the right to go to my Pilates class" posters will soon be along to say that most of the people dying would soon be dead anyway from their existing conditions.

The fact that those people should not be dying on that day, in that place seems irrelevant to them.

Obviously there are annual statistics which at the end of this year will compare month on month the number of deaths. Italy's, as above will show geographical anomalies as there are several "hotspots"

In the UK infection is far more widespread.

But the annual figures will be useful eventually.

littlebitwooway · 30/03/2020 08:20

About 11,000 a week die in March normally. So Covid19 deaths do not look that high yet.

Plexie · 30/03/2020 08:24

Correction: the figures for March are around 11,000 per week.

Interestingly, the figure for 13 March is less than the average figure for the same period in previous years. I wonder if fewer people have died or whether it's delays in registration.?

scaevola · 30/03/2020 08:27

There is nothing to suggest that other deaths are not occurring, and announcements of deaths are careful to say when it's died 'with' rather than 'of'

The numbers of excess deaths from unusual events (bad flu, prolonged cold snap) are reported routinely. I don't see why COVID could not be reported in a similar way, idc. Which means after deaths are registered.

What I'm less clear capacity of Coroner to deal with all cases of those who die within a fortnight of onset of symptoms (amongst people who had not seen a doctor for any other reason in the run up). That could delay registrations, and compilation of anaylses

I think the expectation that COVID would not cause excess deaths is misplaced. If there had not been lockdown type measures, then the death figures would have been utterly terrifying.

If we can keep it down to not much different from a typical year's 'excess death' figures, then units a massive achieving by the government and the NHS, and all of us who complied.

Plexie · 30/03/2020 08:29

Similar statistics are available for Scotland and NI - links are at the bottom of the ONS page I linked to.

scaevola · 30/03/2020 08:34

"Interestingly, the figure for 13 March is less than the average figure for the same period in previous years. I wonder if fewer people have died or whether it's delays in registration.?"

It's not delays in registration as such. Deaths are normally registered within 5 days (can be up to 9 days if a certificate has been issued). But if reported to the Coroner, then it will take longer (no deadline). So if you're looking for deaths, analysed by cause, it could be weeks before even the raw stats are available

Anyone know if Coroners have unusually high numbers of referrals at the moment?

BarbaraofSeville · 30/03/2020 08:35

The numbers of people dying from Covid19 are currently tiny within the normal level of 'deaths per day' and indeed deaths from other types of flu but all the measures in place are an attempt to keep it that way and obviously mitigate the pressure on the NHS because of the high percentage of people who require hospital admission due to the virus.

The restrictions might also lead to a reduction in deaths from other causes because there will be fewer road accidents, drownings, accidents at work or similar due to more people staying at home - although of course people die in accidents at home or in house fires etc.

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