When do you think we will start to see a reduction in new cases

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Lockdown was introduced nearly a week ago but the number of cases just seems to grow and grow.

I know there is a possible 14 incubation period but apparently most cases show in 5 days.

So I'm hoping by the this Friday we should start to see a difference

Is that wishful thinking?

It could be wishful thinking. But I’d like to join in this thread for the optimism and facts (no scaremongering)

I am literally desperate for good news after a I’ve just hit a new low and snapped

Since they're only testing people once they're in hospital, ie presumably very ill, I'd think it more likely that those cases and new deaths are where people have been infected a few weeks?

If that's the case (only a guess) then we wouldn't see 'results' in these statistics for a few weeks but we will get more cases in the next few weeks and then (hopefully) a slowdown after that. It'd be different if there was widespread testing which would pick up more recent cases.

Very wishful thinking after the irresponsible actions of lots of people last weekend. Unfortunately we've now got to wait 2-3 weeks for the peak to come and then another 2-3 weeks to allow those people to recover and not be infectious anymore.

oops sorry nollet x post. On the optimistic side, surely the lockdown is preventing most new spread so will eventually work

We will peak this week and next then see a reduction

So expect a massive jump in cases and fatalities in next few days and 2 weeks as sad as it is that's what guna happen. Stay home n safe x

2 - 3 weeks . Spain & Italy are now decreasing the amount of new infections, even though the death rate is still increasing. To get a better understanding of what will happen to the UK, look south towards Italy and Spain . I don't think our total of infections and deaths will be as high, as these countries, as we live in a different environment to the Mediterranean. What I wonder is what's the exit strategy for all of this ?

I thought the number of new cases had gone down the last couple of days. I know you can't read too much into that due to the testing/counting strategy, but it is still something to be optimistic about.

Typically no more than 7 days incubation, but can be up to 14.

It's often about Day 6 of illness where it becomes much more serious, then a while after that before major interventions needed. You can remain ill for quite a long time.

I think there will be at least another fortnight of rising hospital admissions, and a further week of increased need for advanced care, with those patients remaining in hospital for several more weeks.

Whether there is a diminution after that really depends on whether people did enough to damp down transmission when the 'lockdown' started.

Purely dependent on the testing done. If they start testing more people, which they will do, more positive cases will be found. Very hard to determine much from that statistic alone.

July?

Not for a while. All those people cramming into supermarkets and seaside amusements, last weekend, will only just be succumbing.

I think deaths will peak in around 2/3 weeks.

Oh crap

Has anyone else read that Neil Ferguson is quite well known for making mistakes? I read it somewhere & now I can’t find the article but I wanted someone else’s opinion on him.

I’m sure it was in The Times!

I don’t think it’s as simple as seeing a quick reduction due to lockdown.

I think it’s more likely that we’ll see a plateau/fairly consistent figure in new daily numbers rather than the rate rising exponentially. We may not see a peak of 800+/day like Spain but a longer period of maybe 500/day (figure out of air) for 6 weeks or so before gradual downward trend

@Nollett Neil Ferguson is not known for "making mistakes". Modelling is as good as the data that goes into it. Unfortunately there isn't that much data at this point, as if often the case. There are also things that you can't predict, for example, the weather. The good weather and people going out last weekend will have increased contact, so increased transmission.

There was some criticism of Neil Ferguson's team and their advice during the foot and mouth epidemic, that might be what you read in The Times? The Chief Scientific Officer felt that the measures were too stringent after time (and with evidence). So the measures were relaxed. That's kind of how science works (meant nicely, not sarcastically). No single expert is always right nor is policy based on the work of one scientist. There are plenty of other scientists and modellers contributing to the battle against coronavirus. Expect things to change or be disproved as we know more.

As Chris Whitty said (I am paraphrasing), he will either be remembered as the man who allowed people to die unnecessarily or the man who destroyed the economy unnecessarily. He (nor any scientist) will ever be 100% right. There is no perfect answer.

A while. A month?

Just look at Italy, France and Spain. That's all you ever needed to do. People seem really surprised, but we've always had a window, which makes me so angry that it came to this.

Cheltenham and the Liverpool match were just over a fortnight ago, as was the return of some infected Diamond passengers.

Last weekend only saw the close of pubs, Mother's Day and everyone out at the seaside/park.

Then we have the supermarkets.

Thank you so much for explaining thoroughly goingoverground. I really appreciate that.

The amount of testing is going to increase - Michael Gove said today it is now up to 10k per day, and will continue to increase - so I think you'd expect the number of new cases to increase as well. But not a like for like comparison with previous weeks.