How long do you think people will adhere to lockdown?

[LochJessMonster]

3 weeks is doable, people are treating it like a long holiday.
3 months- I think people will give up by that point and more and more will flout the rules. People just won’t stay away from their family for that long. They’ll go out, socialise more.

The virus will spread quicker, everyone who is going to catch it, will catch it and then life will get back to normal. Unfortunately more people will die that way but I also think people are selfish enough to say ‘it’s gonna happen anyway, and this way I don’t have to self isolate for another 3 months’

I think you’re right.

I think they"ll enforce it more soon, so there won't be a choice. If they find they need to keep the country in lockdown for 3 months the figures themselves will be all the convincing people need to stay home. If the figures are less bad I think restrictions will start to be removed before 3 months anyway.

I think it will be a matter of weeks before people break ranks. It doesn't need to be many people doing it to create a problem.

At which point the army will be brought in to persuade people not to be so fucking stupid and selfish.

I haven’t seen my grandmother in 4 weeks. We are both sticking very strictly to the rules.
But the fact is, she is elderly and has cancer so potentially might not have long left anyway. At what point does the time apart in isolation become not worth it? 6months-1 year apart could be a huge percentage of the time she has left anyway.

Those that are apart from children and partners won’t stay apart for 6 months.

tent that's a really good question. Moreover, how much force will the army be authorised to use and will those soldiers be OK with using it on UK civilians?

I think queues of ambulances outside hospitals might bring the point home.

I’d really worry for only children if they didn’t play with another child for 3-4 months. It feels pretty damaging to development

I think they have shot themselves a bit in the foot by saying the "lockdown" would be for 3 weeks and then reviewed. This has led to a lot of people thinking after 3 weeks that's it, we can go back to what we are doing. Hence the government now scrambling to try and reword that message.

I think 3 weeks is going to be tough, but mostly doable, but already tempers are fraying, people are flouting and neighbours are being nosey. It's manageable levels, but these things will keep rising until things explode.

SugarSugarShimmy very true. Their education and socialisation is going to suffer.

3-6months lockdown is very very different to 3weeks.

Human behaviour doesn’t work like that. After three week people will be used to their new routines and will be more accepting of a longer lockdown, especially if enforced by social shaming and policing.

The new things we are all struggling with will be fine habits after two weeks. After three mo that the habits we’ve made in lockdown will be difficult to break.

The British army isn't big enough to enforce lockdown across the country. They could maybe establish strict martial law in a small town. I think people are very unaware of how many cuts to the military there have been over the last few years. We have maybe 100,000 people, including reserves. That's not a lot.

I’m torn - I don’t think this is a solution even in the medium term really. Mainly because when we come out of lockdown - nothing will have changed and cases will climb again.

So we either:
Live like this until there’s a vaccine - if it doesn’t mutate - 2years? Maybe more? By which time a lot of people will have been more harmed by lockdown than would have been by the virus.
Live like this for 6 months after which cases should be very low but will undoubtably almost immediately then increase again as soon as lockdown stops - in which case - what was the point?
Have periods of lockdown to manage the waves but probably for shorter amounts of time - this will totally ruin the economy.

There is no answer. People are fucked either way. Personally I think we are all going to get it, it’s just avoiding us all getting it at once. People used to catch measles, no one stayed in the house for their entire lives because of it. The difference was that we weren’t all catching it at the same time.
Furthermore if you do get lifelong immunity to Covid after having it - then I’d rather my children had it as children when it’s much less risky.

I keep coming back to the fact lockdown buys us time but changes nothing.

They will adhere as long as it is in place, but it will have to be strictly enforced

People already bored with it seem to need constant reminding that this is about a bigger picture than just them personally avoiding catching it. It's for the sake of the NHS and not overwhelming it. For some reason there are people who just can't keep this thought in their mind. These are the ones who need the enforcement.

I’d really worry for only children if they didn’t play with another child for 3-4 months. It feels pretty damaging to development

Yes, let's make parents of only children feel even more judged and guilty shall we?

On my daily walk with my kids I passed the park where there was children playing on the slide and adults playing tennis on the court and a man on the outside gym so not long I'd say.

Lockdown seems pointless and far too late. Everyone remotely vulnerable should stay in and everyone else carry on and get it and then stop spreading it.

Release the vulnerable in very small stages and only when we have an idea about treatment

This lockdown is going to cause utter misery and destitution

@BelleSausage I don’t think so. I live entirely alone. No children, no partner, no housemates. The only time I have human contact is the rare occasion I speak to my neighbour over the fence.

I haven’t spoken to anyone in 3 days since my last phone call. 3 days without physically speaking a word I could phone my parents more but neither of us have anything to say as we haven’t done anything.

If this goes on more than 3 months, I will most likely have to move in with my parents, despite it being against the rules. I won’t be able to do this for that long.
I am obeying the rules 100%. But it is incredibly scary being this alone.

Lockdown seems pointless and far too late. Everyone remotely vulnerable should stay in and everyone else carry on and get it and then stop spreading it.

That's all very well, but we need to ensure they are all fed, have medication, and get the support they need. And there are a LOT of vulernable people, so how do we ensure that? Not everyone has family or friends or neighbours available to ensure continuity across long periods.

I know the government have set up their service to ensure food parcels are deliveried, but can they step that up to millions?

Guess you are vulnerable then , like around 1/3 or more of the population ?

because tens of thousands of none vulnerables will die with your suggestion, and once the bodies start stacking up in the morgue, you may want lockdown, only by then you would probably be infected . The NHS will collapse. The economy will still fall to pieces

You get more used to it the longer it goes on. We are only 3 weeks in where I am but it's become the norm. And you adhere to it because the police presence on the streets enforces it.

Lovhjess, have you no one else you can call? Work colleague? Old friend? IRL I find everyone is actually being really supportive of anyone who reaches out for help

I think they have shot themselves a bit in the foot by saying the "lockdown" would be for 3 weeks and then reviewed. This has led to a lot of people thinking after 3 weeks that's it, we can go back to what we are doing.

I thought it was clear to anyone of normal intelligence that they meant after three weeks they’d review and see if stronger measures were needed but I now think people heard what they want to hear (eg my boss who appears to think the illness is controlled by government statements and not vice versa).

There are a lot of people who just don’t seem to understand that lockdown - especially in its current form ie without soldiers on the streets - is by far the least worst option.

I do think OP that you’re right in a sense, but I would argue that you have described the attitude of a person who is either not very intelligent or who is determined not to understand the situation.

I was wondering if they would do a phased return of maybe letting those less at risk to go out normally such as those healthy ones in the 18 to 50 ages bracket so if they catch it it won’t be as devastating on loss of life.

Then some herd immunity would be built up for the older generations to go out more safely.

@midgebabe I have friends and colleagues but nothing to say because I haven’t done anything! And they don’t really get it because most live with a partner or children.

Living entirely alone is a very different sort of isolation.

I’m not in the vulnerable category at all, I am very fit and healthy. I had a very active physical and social life. I feel like I am sacrificing my life for other people’s. Which I am happy to do for now, ‘staying inside’ is such a small thing to do to save lives. But no human contact for 6 months? Potentially longer?