Partial lockdown

[Sapphiresunrise]

Was talking to two friends earlier who believe that we should only ask the elderly and vulnerable to isolate right now and that the rest of us should be able to continue as normal, rather than an entire lockdown.
They argue that this would cause significantly less damage to the economy, schools would stay open, and it would still ensure there isn't too much strain on the NHS whilst protecting the at-risk category.

Not saying I necessarily agree with this, I see good and bad points. Just wondered what other people thought of this.

Your friends have a point, not saying i agree fully but we cant shut the whole world/ country for months on end otherwise wed all be fucked! Im so scared about this virus but all my DH is scared about is the economy and he usually sees things more logically than me! Who knows .

I see both sides too, sadly i'm very afraid of the economic fallout as well..

I agree with you. What is the downside of that option? Yes it’s sucks for elderly To self isolate but they already are. So there is no difference.

If they all obeyed and stayed inside then the nhs wouldn’t be overwhelmed.

But schools etc were shutting down before the lockdown as there weren't enough staff.

The same way the government didn't shut down the football league, and actually told us large crowds weren't a problem. The football league shut itself down due to players testing positive etc.

I think when the peak has passed we'll have partial lockdown.

I agree.. A few weeks ok, but they can't just stop life for everybody for months. I think we are not as compliant as somewhere like China where it's more instilled into their daily lives.

Wasn’t this one he initial ideas? A lot of people didn’t comply so the government started telling everyone to stay at home.

I don’t think your friends understand the reasons for the measures in place. The more people at work, school and out and about doing their usual would spread this disease faster than the NHS could cope with, meaning more people would die from it as they would not get access to treatment, care and equipment needed to save their lives. These measures will slow down the spread of the disease meaning people who get it and need hospital care have more chance of getting it as cases are staggered rather than all at once. Even with these measures in place we are still building hospitals in conference centres and Dyson are making 10,000 ventilators as there are not enough available, what more do people need to see before they realise the enormity of what is to come? People listen to medics over all their illnesses, medications and treatments for everything else but don’t want to listen to this because it’s too inconvenient for them or they think it doesn’t apply to them because they are young or healthy

I see your point, and I am also very worried about the economic implications of this.

I think the reason is that a partial lockdown would be very difficult to enforce? As it partly works because we all police each other / refuse to meet friends etc. People are quite resistant to having their freedom taken away even if they are old or vulnerable (lots of threads on here about that), and especially if everyone around them is carrying on as normal. So a partial lockdown would probably not work and end up having very little impact at all.

Is it not because it's not only the elderly that are ending up in ICU? The projections showed that with only partial isolation the NHS would be completely overwhelmed. More people would die because while they would have more chance of recovering with appropriate care, they wouldn't be able to access it.

Plus you'd have people requiring care for non-Covid related illnesses and accidents not being able to be seen to as doctors and nurses as so busy dealing with the crisis.

I think I'll trust the medical experts and epidemiologists, if you don't mind?

My friend works in the NHS. Many of the patients on ventilators in her hospital are not elderly or vulnerable. They are people younger than 60.

It's a myth that only the vulnerable and elderly will die from this illness which is why everyone needs to stay at home to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed.

I think the problem is that we have very little understanding of the mortality rate of those under 70 as we don't know how many people actually have it. If it turns out that hundreds of thousands of younger people have it without realising and the mortality rate is very, very low then I wouldn't be surprised if we moved to something like this.

My dad is over 70 and is complaining a lot about being stuck indoors and of course it's crap. But he doesn't seem to appreciate that there are many, many people whose jobs are now non-existent and are now at home with multiple kids who can't go to school.

I hate the idea of older people being isolated but then I also hate the idea of people being impoverished and children losing out on their education. It's not "just money" as people keep saying, it's people's quality of life. A few weeks we can manage but months and months - I just don't know if it's fair.

The current measures also mean that everyone is required to stay at home which helps to stop the virus spreading to other parts of the country. We're just coming in to the Easter holidays and many families would travel to coastal areas etc, potentially taking the virus with them from areas which have a higher rate of infection, such as London.

Also, I'm guessing they don't put people on ventilators to die, they put them on because they are going to live.
My neighbour's daughter is a doctor, sick and ventilated last night. She will live now!
I don't want medics to have to choose between saving her or saving someone else, so I will stay right where I am, thankyou!

Definitely what Billy said

I am sorry that this is an inconvenience to
you and indeed your "friend"

I am going to do what the medical and scientific experts recommend that I do

I remember them saying this was a marathon and not a sprint. I also remember them saying that many people will die too.

I hate ignorance on posts like this.

Tbh I don’t think it helps when the media keep pushing how this is ‘mild’ illness especially in reference to the PM having it. I get that they don’t want to frightened people but maybe that’s what people need then they might actually do what they’ve been advised

Even if you locked up all the vulnerable ( say 1/3 of the population, possibly more if we include all the overweight and unfit - so still a severe economic hit) the resultant uncontrolled stream would overwhelm the NHS and lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, both from the virus and from other things that the NHS would fail to treat

The nhs would collapse. The number of people unable to function from grief would be enormous . We need foreign workers for harvesting if we want some level of food security, and we wouldn't get them to come with that "take your chances" plan.

The effect of that would be a huge economic hit

The problem is the virus Rios through the general population then who looks after the elderly? The disabled? Not everyone can self isolate.
Who works in the hospitals or the schools? If everyone is sick.
A partial lockdown just simply doesn’t work for lots of reasons otherwise that’s the obvious answer.

My neighbour's daughter is a doctor, sick and ventilated last night. She will live now!

It's an absolute scandal that NHS workers are being put at risk right now. Early findings suggest that young, fit people are ending up on ventilators only when they've had major exposure to covid-19. This should never happen to our health workers and wouldn't if they had proper PPE.

I hope I haven't come across as harsh. I think my attitude to this is perhaps somewhat affected by losing three friends (all in late twenties and early thirties) to cancer last year. One of them in particular I feel was really let down by the NHS. The diagnosis came way too late and he was then told that the cancer was a rare form and they didn't have the funds to buy in the expensive drugs needed. He died six months later.

It's bringing up a lot of emotions for me seeing the government throw all the money they've got at helping covid-19 patients when cancer patients are being told their treatment is on hold.