Have I got this wrong?

[Stressedmummyof4]

Please bear with me, I know people are getting annoyed with numbers but can someone tell me if I'm wrong?

So USA operating drive through testing and open testing - numbers soaring

As far as I can see Italy and Spain doing open testing too - number soaring

The uk are only testing on admission to hospital? So technically you have to be extremely ill to be tested.

Am I wrong in thinking our numbers are only looking relatively low because we aren't actually testing the same as these countries and if we were our numbers would be just as huge.

I'm just struggling to understand why we are acting differently. Thank you in advance x

You're not wrong

Yes but I’m fairly certain that there being more cases means our death and complication rate is much lower than is being reported.

We likely have far more cases than are reported, as the mild ones aren’t being picked up. So it looks as though a greater proportion of people who get it are having serious complications or dying than what is actually true. Which is a more positive way of looking at it I suppose.

@catsandlavender that's true never thought of it like that.

I had heard a news reporter going in about how high confirmed cases were in Italy Spain and Germany and I instantly thought our confirmed case numbers aren't really true are they.

I'm finding it so hard to comprehend that our number is relating to so many unwell people at the moment and that the amount of poor people who have died. It's all just so awful.

Thank you @Ffsnosexallowed and @catsandlavender for replying x

Also can I point out people testing positive in hospitals also isnt necessarily worst case on ventilator scenarios either. A lot of them are in hospital overnight for observations and sent home. So that also skews the figures i guess?

Another thing to consider: of the 100k tests administered so far, only 11k have been positive. That's not to say that every infected individual has been identified but the numbers aren't simply a direct product of the number tested.

Yes the case rate is much higher than is being indicated, they think one per thousand deaths.

The death rate remains the same though.

Three of my neighbours have had it. They picked it up in a local pub a couple of weeks ago when they went out together. They had all the symptoms and phoned 111 for advice. They were told it was c-19 but they weren’t tested as they didn’t go to hospital and so aren’t part of the figures. They are in their 50s and 60s and they have all fully recovered now.

Do u know how they know where they picked it up? I'm paranoid every time I leave my flat, especially hate being in out communal entrance hall atm. If i caught it is assume I got in on the hallway or the que in boots, I wouldn't really know where.

There were six of them, three of them used the toilets in the pub and those three got it.

Death rate is a better way of understanding actual cases. Depressingly. If 1/10 die, 100 died today, it is an average 17 days from symptoms to death, so 17 days we could have had 1000 cases, 1 person gives it to 2.5 people (as is reported) each of them give it 2.5 people....exponentially you can see it is much higher. Someone said 40000-50000 cases which sounds about right.

The other way of understanding how bad its now is ICU beds. We have 4000 but only 800 spare usually. We have 150+ in serious/critical state, 11000 active cases and 2000 new ones. If even 2.5% of these people need ICU, thats 263 ICU beds in the next few weeks and that is highly conservative.

Its not hard to see how we need more intensive care capacity in the next couple of weeks and more staff and more equipment and places for these staff to stay near hospitals and food for them. Urgently.

I thought of it like this too OP
If only 11k out of 100k tested resulted +ve then it reminds us that there are still other viral and bacterial infections out there, as ever. And looking at those stats you’re more likely to be hospitalised with something that isn’t Covid-19.
Also Peppa your neighbours didn’t definitely have it if they weren’t tested. Maybe they had something else?

That’s presuming the 100k tested were people who are hospitalised or unwell or is it 100k randoms?

So only a small faction of the tests given to people with matching symptoms come back clear. Why do we think it likely that most of the population have had it because of a mild cough?

Why dp we think were so special compared to china, italy spain

We havent scratched the surface of this virus yet. "I think ive already had it" just suits the herd immunity/its a mild disorder narrative

Thank you everyone for replying. It's all so frightening, I have three little ones at home and two are on the risk list. It's not playing great with my thoughts I tell you. In all honesty I have felt better reading your comments thinking that if we tested just as much then our death rate would be much lower so I thank you again for that.

I wish everyone well and keep safe x