Italy corona virus lockdown

[mummy1214]

Why is it considering Italy have been in lockdown 2 weeks already that it does not seem to be helping at all ? They still seem to be having more and more cases and deaths it doesn't seem to be slowing. Is a lockdown pointless in that case ? It worries me the same is going to happen here in England.

Incubation period is 5 to 14 days and then it takes a few people for those people who are going to die from it to become that ill and then die. What you need to look at now is the rate off new infections.

Why is it considering Italy have been in lockdown 2 weeks already that it does not seem to be helping at all?

If you look at the daily deaths they have stopped going up. You'd normally expect the numbers to double every 5 days. It is working there and will work here if we stick with it.

Thank you I've been looking at the numbers day on day and like today they seem to have had a bigger number again but saying that I didn't compare it to numbers 5 days ago. I am absolutely petrified if I'm honest not so much for myself but for my children. I stopped working 10 days ago as I'm pregnant and my bosses didn't want me in but my husband is a key worker so is still at work as a bus driver.

From what I’ve read, the average time of death seems to be 18.5 days later + up to 14 day incubation period.

If you look at the daily deaths they have stopped going up. You'd normally expect the numbers to double every 5 days.

This. If there had been no lockdown, the daily death rate would be more than 1000 by now. This is really good news because it shows that the approach works. We probably won't reach a death rate as high as Italy, but ours will be much higher than now when it levels off.

Of course it still means many, many people dying. The only way to stop that would be total draconian quarrantine, enforced by troops, like in China. As long as people are still going to work it will spread.

Of course, if people break the restrictions, more people die.

Peak is expected between 3-10 April (of infections) with peak deaths after that. The trend overall is slowing down if you look at the graphs. The numbers are still high of course but the increase is slowing if that makes sense.

Is that the peak for Italy or for the UK?

Sorry, Italy. I'm in Italy.

Thank you.such worrying times. Keep safe everyone x