Am I really not going to see my parents for a year?

[SpongeCake23]

I keep seeing this article floating around Facebook saying we might be in this situation for a year according to some scientists and experts.

I feel sick at the thought of not seeing my family or friends and not being able to attend my usual social activities for that long.
I’m very depressed and anxious at the moment and had geared myself up for 12 weeks, so this is a real kick in the teeth for me. I hope it isn’t true, or I’ve misinterpreted it.

We might be dealing with the virus for a year, but there’s no feasible way we could operate in a lockdown state for 12 months. Even China only did 2/3 months. Please try and take things one day at a time, just think about the next three weeks for now. Nobody can tell you what will happen after that. I’m in the same boat with anxiety and thinking about this as a temporary thing has really helped me x

This is what is scaring me the most.

It is impossible to say, but I suspect that we will be like China, once the initial surge has been controlled, we will start to relax the rules in a careful and controlled way. Lots of testing and perhaps localised lock downs , foreign travel probably most restricted.

So it might be a bit more like 16 weeks but unlikely to be a year. The more people act now, the shorter that time will be. And each day is one day closer.

Testing is likely to be the key. Move more towards the South Korea model when people are tested regularly and are aware of they've had any contact with someone infected.

I hope to god its just more scaremongering. My partner lives away due to work so we now can't see each other until the restrictions are lifted. But due to meds my daughter has no immunity so could be on the 12 week full blown lockdown. I am dreading the thought of my family being separated for that long and stressing hugely about what it will do to our relationship.

Unlikely. The battle against the virus, until a vaccine is created, will easily be another year. That's not the same that we will have to obey such stringent measures.

Ramping up testing will massively help identify those who have already had it. And then it's likely we will have to turn on / turn off measures like a tap until enough herd immunity is reached and critical care isn't overwhelmed.

There is some (but not so far conclusive) evidence that hot / dry weather will help alleviate the disease as would be usual for most viruses as they struggle under heat and UV light. So it might be that we relax restrictions over the summer and then have to restrict in September for example.

Lots of ifs and buts, but no you won't be away from people for a year!