Why are these young, supposedly people dying or struggling with the virus

[Dickorydockwhatthe]

21 year old girl has just died and there have been other cases of young, healthy people being hospitalised and critically ill. I was always under the impression that unless you were old or vulnerable or had underlying health issues you weren't at risk and likely to get it mild. Reading these stories is making me now even want to go out fullstop for essential supplies 😩

@MilkTrayLimeBarrel - I don't think lottie meant that it's ok for the over 60s to die or not be given hospital treatment.

@hazelnutlatteplease

maybe we are reading it differently look at the quote below:

|*What they seem to be saying is that after SARS-CoV2 first crossed into humans, the ancestral strain (S) subsequently evolved into another lineage (L). Both of these are now apparently circulating. The newer lineage was initially more prevalent, but is now reducing – the authors speculate that this lineage was more affected by human intervention as a result of it being better at spreading/more pathogenic. The older (S) lineage appear less affected by preventative measures, due, say the authors to it being less virulent and so producing a lower level of more stable infections.

“It’s difficult to confirm studies like this without a direct side by side comparison of pathogenicity/spread in, ideally, an animal model, or at least a greatly extended epidemiological study. The authors themselves admit that their sequencing data regarding the rise/fall of the second lineage is relatively scarce and recommend further investigations.*

this links into the article that we now have
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-vaccine-mutation-covid-19-latest-a9423301.html

That is is now a relatively stable virus. I always thought that it briefly evolved and then went back to the s type which is more infectious but mild

and yes it has always said

80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease, which includes non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases,

But the pneumonia cases will be moderate not mild

@adaline People were repeatedly told that it was only more than a mild cold for elderly people or those with serious underlying conditions. People are now realising they were lied to.

People chose to hear that it was only a mild cold but it wasnt entirely what they were told. They were told that for the majority of people it would present as a mild to moderate illness and that older people and people with pre existing medical conditions were more at risk of complications. What people heard was different not helped by people like trump spouting nonsense but the statistics have been well publicised from the start that people have died in every age category except 0-9.
You have to walk the line between giving hard facts and not causing panic. And the facts are that for the vast majority of people they will get ill but it wont be life threatening and they will survive.

@alloutoffucks I think its more that people chose to read that into it. The data has always been there, the risks of dying havent changed in an age bracket - the cdc released data here www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm#T1_down

is pretty much with the statistical range of the chinese data as well. Its just I think its hard to comprehend that a 0.2% death rate means that for every 1000 people who get it 2 will die. So if a million 20 somethings get it 2000 will die. That is a huge amount.

That said around 15 out of 100 80 year olds are affected which means 150,000 out of every million who get it. That is an even bigger amount

@Quartz2208

But your data is from America. America havent really even vaguely begun their outbreak proper yet. They've still got a fair chance at containment

China the death rate settled at 4%. It was running at above 10% until their widescale testing picked up the wider community cases.

3%-4% is also the death rate quoted by tge WHO [[www.who.int › docsPDF
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) here]]

Italy is sat at 40%-50% death rate. It has been sat at that since the end of feb. Spain is similar. Worldwide we're sat on an 18% death rate. here

That site was brilliant for China but its well known that Europe is massively undertesting its mild cases rendering the death rate meaningless.

3-4% is the average - within that its different age brackets.

If the American and Chinese data is the same - with an acceptance of the fact that the virus has remained pretty stable why do you want Italy to have a 50% death rate?

The other stuff is all much more positive. Difficult and understandable as to why we are locking down but a more positive stance

My point is this is not a mild illness. 3-4,% death rate is not a mild illness. 15% ish needing intubation is not a mild illness. Pneumonia with the potential of permanent lung damage is not a mild illness (and yet that is included in the stats of mild infection)

Also worth noting if you can source the breakdown of symptoms by age. (I could but i cant find it now) things will impact the death rate like restrictions to the provision of more serious interventions either through patient choice or necessity.

We have to stop peddling the myth this is a mild illness. It isn't

I’d say it’s mostly due to cytokine storm syndrome, I.e. attacked by one’s own (overacted) immune system, similar to SARS

we are in a global lockdown I dont think it has ever been peddled as a mild illness! Its a pandemic and we are at war with it. Where exactly is it seen as a mild illness?

This is based on a study which is preliminary and has not even been published in a peer-reviewed journal. It is NOT fact. Please don't spout this sort of thing as it scares people

@swishthecat that was my point in listing various tentative findings, observations and theories.

Nobody knows. At least not yet.

Oops! Wrong thread 🙈

Totally agree that it’s HLH/Cytokine storm syndrome (and pneumonia in older patients).

Will get my mis-post removed.

Ha I thought I’d got lost then DuLANG

I posted something about Harvey Weinstein’s weird penis in a thread about childhood cancer once 🙈

I do love that Mumsnet gives us a place where we can do both!

I’ve been following the cytokine storm/ sHLH thing for a while. This was published today (Norway): tidsskriftet.no/en/2020/03/debatt/haemophagocytic-lymphohistiocytosis-covid-19-cases

And I noticed this yesterday, UK clinicians saying they are routinely screening COVID19 patients for elevated ferritin on ICU admissions. Really welcome news.

'Ugh I hate norovirus. Do you ever wonder how you got it despite the hygiene?'

Hygiene failure perhaps (teen forgetting to wash hands and me missing it), or virulent strain, or being in a room with lots of people at pre Christmas choir practice (how long ago that seems!). It was over in 8 hours for all of us, but grim while it lasted.

I read on a German site that Romania is planning to test the entire population of Bucharest. That should give us some interesting data re asymptomatic infection.

I posted something about Harvey Weinstein’s weird penis in a thread about childhood cancer once 🙈