Surely the only numbers we should look at are deaths from Coronavirus?

[HalfDutchGirl]

A genuine question, I look at all the graphs, statistics and numbers bandied around everywhere but my question is that surely the only reliable numbers we should look at are the reported deaths from COVID-19.

My daughter and her boyfriend are in self-isolation after spending time at the supermarket last week with a friend who had all the symptoms. Those three people may, or may not, have had this virus, however, due to the lack of testing they will never know and, if they did, their numbers will never be included in the ‘cases’ numbers.

Equally, the famous people (ie. footballers, movie stars etc) who are mentioned in the media, because of their status have access to the testing and so therefore they are the ones that probably skew our thinking because it then makes more everyday folk believe it’s more widespread (I’m not saying it’s not widespread).

What are your thoughts?

Who knows? Maybe the death numbers aren’t reliable either. If cases are not being widely tested in some countries then their death rate looks far worse then those countries who are widespread testing. If, like Germany (allegedly), deaths of people who were at deaths door with, say, cancer or heart disease are being registered as canyons heart disease even though they had corvid19 then their death cases look far lower than countries who, in exactly the same scenario, register the death as corvid19 even though the patient wouldn’t have survived the underlying condition. Then there’s Russia who despite having a population of roughly 146million, have relatively small numbers of corvid19 but suspiciously high numbers of pneumonia suddenly being reported, presumably those patients who die will be registered as having died of pneumonia. 🤷‍♀️

It’s ‘Lies, damn lies and statistics’ isn’t it. Am I’m not suggesting any country is deliberately lying (though some might), rather, how to know what to extrapolate from figures without knowing the much wider Information surrounding them.

Yes and no. The confirmed cases is effectively allowing us to track the numbers of the most serious cases. It's a more even curve than the deaths because the numbers are larger.

Unsurprisingly both deaths and confirmed cases follow the same exponential curve upwards. They both seem to indicate we are about 14 days behind Italy.

I think different countries numbers aren't really comparable because of the reasons mentioned in earlier posts (re Russia/pneumonia for example) but also the population being tested - Germany apparently have tested vast numbers of young, healthy people who naturally survive CV19 whereas we are mainly only testing those who need hospital treatment who are therefore obviously immediately at greater risk of death. It also seems that deaths that come along with underlying conditions are being recorded as CV deaths because the patient tested positive at the time of death...there has to be a proportion of these who would have died as a result of their condition anyway. Both are encouraging in terms of actual death rate, (it is also likely the number of people walking around asymptomatic/recovered is huge) though of no comfort at all in sheer numbers and demand on the healthcare system.

@judashascomeintosomemoney I didn’t know that about Russia although I had thought on a number of occasions they seem to be keeping their heads very low in all of this and so it’s very interesting what you say about their numbers & their casualties from pneumonia.

@sleepwhenidie I had not considered the fact that some deaths will be put down as CV when actually it could have been the underlying illness/condition was the main factor.

I guess the bottom line is we will never really know.

Even the deaths won't be as simple as they seem. People who are already dying my contract the virus and it will be recorded on their death certificate.
Then there will be other deaths where the virus was a complicating factor but wasn't identified.

My grandad has congestive heart failure and a njmher of other conditions. Presumably also some unknown ones. He's very unlikely to be here by Christmas but if he contracts the virus he'll go down in the stats.