When will we see 'results' from the Italy lockdown?

[Heylottie33]

Just that really. If the vast majority of people are inside for 14 days, then surely after those 14 days, the infection rate will dip dramatically?
I know that key workers are at high risk so the circle of infection will still happen, but a smaller circle surely?
Ie, in the next few days, will the Italy rate go down?

I have been thinking about this too

Yes Im thinking the same as you, i think the deaths will contine because those people are already infected and very poorly.
People who have self isolated will be coming out the other side and everyone else is locked down so shouldnt be getting it. Although if it was that simple then wouldnt the world just shut down for 2 weeks and job done!

Have you read the China lockdown post? Their lock down was for months, still going and they continued getting new cases. I don’t think the lockdowns have been strict enough for them to start coming out the other side.

I think I saw on twitter that the Italy lockdown won’t impact figures till about Tuesday.

Apparently, they have people stuck on ventilators whom they can't wean off due to them having ongoing problems.

Soon I HOPE!

Boris said in his conference earlier this week that it takes 3 weeks for the effects of isolation measures to show. Italy went into lockdown on 8 March I think so it would be end of March before you'd see its impact - longer of course if people aren't sticking to it properly.

We just have to keep counting our blessings.

Probably another week or so, but the best case is likely that death rates stay constant and the exponential increase is stopped.

So a daily death rate of 500-1000 would indicate the lockdown is working.

I think the best case is actually better than that. I think a full lock down will bring the R0 below 1, which will reduce cases.

There is a 12 day delay between onset of lockdown and a reduction in cases. I would imagine there would be at least a week more than that before we saw a reduction in deaths.

Tuesday. Look at Italy's new case figures on Tuesday.

If they're not dropping, their lockdown didn't work. And that's very very bad news indeed.

Deaths will lag at least a fortnight behind.

If it can incubate for 14 days then theoretically you could have a family of 4 who person 1 gets ill day 1, person 2 catches it day 14, person 3 on day 28, person 4 42. That's assuming no other contact with the outside world, which for key workers and even people doing supermarket shopping is impossible.

Then when people get poorly they need time to recover ( which could be weeks) or sadly, don't make it. All that time they could be infecting healthcare workers who bring it back to their family. So if we went into lockdown now it would still take time to clear. The sooner the better though!

I also think that the China lockdown was more thorough, and that in Italy, there were already more cases, so more people potentially bringing the virus into lockdown with them. I would not be surprised if it did not take a little longer for the numbers to drop in Italy.

If you have a family of 4 going into lockdown, and 1 is infected, then that first person will probably spread to 3 others, but then those 3 others will not have anyone else to spread to, so the R0 will still drop, but not before infecting one last iteration.

@Fluffymulletstyle I've cross posted before, but that one was very specific!

We were exactly two weeks behind Italy yesterday, with both countries recording 233 deaths on day 15 of the outbreak. On day 16 Italy’s death rate jumped to 366. Will the same apply here today?

I think the best case is actually better than that. I think a full lock down will bring the R0 below 1, which will reduce cases.

That's true, but I think achieving that is unrealistic in the west. We aren't willing/able to introduce Chinese style measures.

It will only work if the lockdown is near total. I don't think it has been anything like total in Italy, so don't expect it to have worked. We, at least, have the benefit of seeing what could happen if we don't stick strictly to the lockdown. I can only hope we take notice.

Italy's peak contagion is expected around the 3rd April (give or take 7 or so days because of some of those one-per-household allowed out to food shop will be contagious but not with symptoms etc etc) Peak death rate will come 7-14 days after that. Although soberingly, the news outlets have said that as fewer ICU beds are available, people critically ill will die faster and so the death rate peak may well come closer in time to peak contagion.

Total lockdown of any country is impossible, because mobilising the army to deliver food to houses (for example) would be untenable over a whole country.

Italy's lockdown has had 4 tweaks since it began- the last being last night which closed down any non essential production (ie not food or medicine) it is true that initially people were not totally respecting the rules, taking their dogs for a walk miles away etc. Now there are police controls everywhere. Even park benches are being removed etc.