The normal annual death rate is actually 500,000

[Thedogshow]

I was trying to put the Coronavirus deaths in context & I’m really surprised by this!
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths
I know that a big increase in acutely unwell people due to the virus would cause be extremely difficult for the NHS to manage (I read we have 4,000 intensive care beds as opposed to around 20,000 in Germany) but I worry also about the financial and societal impact of the complete shutdown. The unintended consequences for families with young children/middle aged people who lose their homes & can’t afford food and become extremely vulnerable in the process.
And indeed government needs money coming in from taxes in order to keep the NHS etc functioning. It can’t create money without business.
There is so much fear around Coronavirus and clearly it is a massive crisis for the medics, nurses, and people who become seriously unwell. But I am not sure that a total lockdown for many months will not caused greater hardship and death in the longer term from suicide, social problems, and other medical conditions that are neglected in this approach, including cancer.
I also might be totally wrong. Struggling to work out what I think is best (& of course following government advice!)

OP, prepare to get flamed in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1....

Well in 12 months when we all have the benefit of hindsight we can argue the point. Until then we have to watch and learn from what’s happening in other countries.

Just to be clear, the Coronavirus deaths are, by and large, an INCREASE in the current, standard death rate. So it's thousands more people dying than otherwise would.

Here.

Read THIS

Learn. Dispel your ignorance.

Also the normal annual death rate is irrelevant, the Covid19 deaths will be in addition to, plus many more deaths due to lack of services as they’re diverted to deal with this.

It is a worry that the nhs cannot survive without any cash or revenue. Nothing is for free of course. Maybe if the big companies paid their taxes , that could help matters?
I don't know what we will do without money in the system.
I hope someone comes on with bigger brains than me to answer these questions.
I doubt other countries would help us either as it stands. Why should they?
How do the Chinese fund their essential services for example? How much has this cost Italy so far?
I don't know the answers !
I wished I did.

Well, of course if we did nothing and let the virus rampage through the population we could be looking at potentially between (66,000,0000.60.01) 396,000 and (66,000,0000.80.3) 1,584,0000 deaths. Just from coronavirus. Not counting the people who would die of, for example, heart attacks etc because there were no beds available for them in hospital, which would be a significant number.

So I do think that maybe we should try to avoid that?

OMG, do you understand that all the usual causes of death don't stop and politely stand aside for a pandemic for a year?

Coronavirus deaths and disability ON TOP OF existing annual death rates.

I absolutely fucking despair.

In Italy right now around 400 are dying daily on top of the normal amount. It’s like a daily catastrophe like an earthquake, or terrorist attack, day after day.

I said this on another thread, but go and look at the video Sky News have done inside the (new and very well equipped) hospital in Bergamo, where the military have had to be called in to remove the corpses as they can't cremate them there fast enough, even running round the clock. Italy have implemented much tougher measures than us in terms of restricting movement and social gatherings. Here we have people still going off to get their hair cut and going to the pub, because they think it doesn't apply to them and saying stuff like 'Only 100 people have died!' It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or medical expert) to figure out that this could be coming for us very soon and we are totally unprepared.

Italy's s hardest-hit city wants you to see how COVID-19 is affecting its hospitals news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

It should tell us all something when Boris and the Tories in general, who do not prioritise the welfare of vulnerable people in our society, are implementing measures that will have such drastic impacts on businesses, even big businesses and their cronies and supporters.

I do understand this. But realistically a society without money has much higher death rates longer term. Poorer countries have many more maternal deaths, neonatal deaths, and other preventable deaths.
I think honestly that big companies are in exactly the same position as small companies with big debts that they pay by continual cash flow and many huge companies will go bankrupt quickly and consequently cost millions of jobs.
These are really important problems because people need to heat, need warmth and shelter, medical care, medicines and hygiene products and all of this costs money and causes great hardship and probably loss of life if they are not available.
I don’t know the solution! I’m just worried about the unintended consequences of all of this.

And how the NHS will be funded long term. That seems like a huge problem.

@barracker that is a most enlightening article, and makes the case for suppression very clearly. Thanks for sharing - everyone should read it.

Hopefully this won't last "for the longer term". If there are proper measures now then in 3-4 months we can be back to a semblance of normality.

If there aren't, then it will go on for months and months.

I think you are missing, OP, the fact that if huge numbers of people are off sick/have died then that will also have a huge economic effect, so just letting it run won't help the economy that much...

Obviously we need to slow down the spread of the virus as much as possible, in the hope of avoiding preventable deaths, especially those due to hospital facilities being overwhelmed.

But I disagree with the posters saying that all the coronavirus deaths will be extra ones in addition to the normal annual 500,000.

Surely there is going to be a significant crossover? After all, coronavirus deaths appear to be mostly among the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. Surely those are the groups most likely to be in the "normal" annual 500,000 deaths as well?

That doesn't make it any better, obviously. Preventable and early deaths are appalling, regardless of age or health.