3 months

[NemophilistRebel]

Everything at the moment is 3 months it seems

High risk self isolating / social distancing for 12 weeks

Mortgage and loan holidays for 3 months

Is this hopeful or realistic?

Starting to think we can manage financially for 3 months with the measures in place and by going down to one car for the foreseeable but not if it’s much longer

The government are counting on the warmer weather ending the flu season so there's less pressure on the NHS, enabling them to cope with covid 19 patients instead.

Interesting. The Australian government seems to be telling is that we’re looking at at least 6 months of our measures here.

They just said a year on radio 2 news just now

Yeah. We're SORNing a car and just running the cheaper one. Cut back on everything we can. It's survival at this point!

It could be a year if we can't beat it back in time to get a respite before the next flu season, was my impression?

Which at this rate we won't.

I assume if ppl cooperate it will be 12 weeks to get over the peak & on to the start of the downwards part of the curve but there will be another peak next autumn/winter.

The gov advice papers were published today - they contained this

"... school closures, bans on mass gatherings and policies such as self-isolation have found that any of the measures... could potentially flatten the peak of the epidemic and extend it to some extent".

But the impact is not "strictly additive" and implementing all could simply cause a "large second epidemic" once containment measures were lifted:

"Combining all four measures, as a long-term policy, might have a similar impact to that seen in Hong Kong or mainland China – reducing the reproduction number to around 1. However, this would result in a large second epidemic once measures were lifted.

"Implementing a subset of measures (e.g.the first three) would be expected to have a more moderate impact – still substantially reducing peak incidence, while making a second wave of infection in Autumn less likely.

"This might be the preferred outcome for the NHS."

No.

Not 3 months.

SIX MONTHS in some form.