BBC News Special on school closures - worried.

[ValerieFlowers]

Hi, I watched the BBC News Special tonight on Coronavirus. The Medical Correspondent, Fergus Walsh was asked how long school closures would last. His response was and this is pretty much word for word what he said (I noted it down): - that it'd be a long time; that scientists who have modeled the epidemic have said that as soon as you lift restrictions, the virus would flare up again. We're talking about months. It'll maybe be 18 months before we get a vaccine. We might see the restrictions eased a bit and then reimposed...

I'm wondering therefore whether to expect schools to be closed until we get a vaccine, which is likely to be 18 months from now. This is an awfully long time and I really hope not. What do others think? I'm just trying to get my head around it all and finding it quite hard at the moment as I've a 4 yr old, on a low income, may well lose my job and have very little support. Thank you.

I don't think anyone knows at the moment.

It’s stories like this that - hideous as it seems - makes me wonder if taking the hit with the disease might be less damaging in terms of lives, compared to those lost indirectly from the country shutting down for any length of time. Every scenario seems so awful.

“At this stage I cannot promise schools and nurseries will reopen after the Easter break.”

This is the only guidance we have in Scotland from Nicola Sturgeon. We have been given no specific timelines. More information is being released tomorrow. What I do know is there is going to be childcare provision for Key Workers, who Key Workers are I don’t know for sure. This is such an uncertain time for everyone and most people are scared for one reason or another. Personally, I can’t see schools and nurseries being closed for 18 months though.

It is scary. My assumption is that they might end up merging the Easter break into the Summer holidays.

I'm a lone parent on a low income, totally reliant on top up benefits and with no support except my mum, who is 80. So was panicking like crazy today (also have two SEND kids and their Dad isn't around so can't help).

I work for the NHS so will have to either work from home or my son will have to go to school. Although no
Idea about DD as she is more severe with EHCP. Her special school has already partially closed due to staff self-isolating so not sure where she would go?

Likelihood is she would have to stay home which means I have to work from home.

My saving grace is that the NHS won't sack me as they need all hands on deck. Not sure what will happen work wise but am aware that others are in a more precarious position employment wise.

The good news is that genuinely, scientists worldwide are working round the clock to find a vaccine and also drugs that help ameliorate the worst of it, and trials are happening now. Although a vaccine is a year off, that doesn't necessarily mean some kind of treatment will be, especially if existing drugs are likely to help treat it (which is looking hopeful - fingers crossed).

The govt will need to balance it all out, with risk/benefit and how soon treatments can be confirmed aNd used, but I very much doubt that schools will shut for 18 months.

Of course politicians can't give definite answers (although Boris and his 'we are advising people to make the right choice' crap is driving me round the bend) but the situation will change and if it can be avoided, they won't want 2/3 of the workforce off work semi-indefinitely.

My guess would be that they will reopen in Sept, then might need re-close if a second wave, but again, if a treatment is then in use, it may feel less desperate.

It may well come and go in waves, but it won't be a straight year and a half, I'm pretty sure.

The fact that they’ve announced no exams seems the schools aren’t expecting to reopen until September at the earliest :(

Hi all thank you for your responses and I apologise for taking so long to reply. I can't believe its only day three of the schools being closed and I'm struggling already. I'm hoping and praying there will be some good news that comes soon, just a small glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. One of the things I'm really struggling with right now is the thought that this could go on and on and on for months, with no end in sight. I know that this is an unprecedented situation though and noone can really say how things will turn out.

Very worrying time, indeed. The hardest part is it knowing how long this will go on for.

I have in my head my son will go back September at the earliest. I’m hoping my job can survive the economic fall out. I work in retail.

Also mentally planning for September at the earliest.

I thougt 12 weeks to start with but it looks like 4 months in reality which takes us to July so you might as well roll the summer holidays into it and realistically you're looking at September (or August in Scotland) at the earliest. If we're lucky some of that time might have fewer restrictions.

I thought when Nicola Sturgeon announced the Scotland closures, she foreshadowed the likely need to wait until after the summer holidays.

I think before August/September is unlikely.

We have absolutely no idea but realistically there are probably only two ways it will be before September. The first is if the newly started large scale trials of existing drugs in use for other ailments show a really good success rate of treating Covid 19. If that happens the enormous pressure comes off of world health systems and we can go back to a pretty normal existence. Most of us can ultimately expect to get the virus but those who become really ill can be treated with drugs rather than need ventilation. That's the good scenario.

The other is if the virus transmission rates die back and the governments start making decisions to open school during the summer months. If this happens, there is a very good chance it's because they believe we are in a cycle where the virus will spike in waves. They will bring kids back to school during the normal holidays because they feel there is a very real chance they will have to shut them again in the autumn. That's the shit scenario.

@EugenesAxe

This is the problem, there was always going to be an economic cost, a human lives cost, or a bit of both.

The government went for the number 3 compromise, refused to realise the magnitude of the economic sacrifice required, and now its going to to cost more money and lives than it may have done.

The problem with the 'sod-it, it'll all blow over' approach (the Trump approach) is that there is so little additional ICU capacity spare even at the best of times, meaning after the first thousand cases that manage to get an ICU bed, nobody else will be able to - the mortality is likely to be more like 10-20% than 2-4% in that scenario - think Italy Vs Germany.

By delaying things we get the chance to increase capacity, and to get some people through their ICU stay before the next person needs the bed. My feeling is we left the delay bit and the prepare bit too late to try and save some money,

I work in education, I teach early years and I feel utterly hopeless at the moment trying to 'teach' 3/4 year olds online.
I can't help panicking about the long term financial implications for me? At the moment I'm probably doing an hour or two of work a day, can I seriously expect full pay for that for 18 months

I think maybe spring next year, but only a guess.
There is the next wave after shutdown (which we haven't actually done yet) this should be Autumn/ winter time according to WHO.

I would have thought September at the earliest, and even then I doubt it will be 'normal' school, no idea how it could be different to make it safer, but I think it'll be a while before classrooms are full again and there's that many people in one place. It makes their initial plan to let it loose and shield the vulnerable not quite so crazy on balance in my mind, but the overriding factor is that it would have been unethical to not attempt to curb it to the level the NHS would have a chance.

There are also 'models' for how we may react seeing how other countries play out. China are going back to school in a couple of weeks although not clear whether their data can be trusted. Italy and Spain are must closer to home, and similar in terms of education and healthcare so we can hope that they may 'go before' us and we can take better learning from them.